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As another comedic twist, the LW community is probably the biggest proponent of publishing long-dated predictions and calibrating their confidence based on thei
by CompelTechnic 9y ago
As another comedic twist, the LW community is probably the biggest proponent of publishing long-dated predictions and calibrating their confidence based on their results and priors. If ANY group of people has a defensible history of trying to make verifiable/actionable predictions, it is LW.