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There aren't that many predictions being made on LW though. If you expect this has only come true by chance, there should be a large amount of similar predictio
by Anderkent 9y ago
There aren't that many predictions being made on LW though. If you expect this has only come true by chance, there should be a large amount of similar predictions that haven't come true in the LW archives. Are there?
- CompelTechnic 9y agoAs another comedic twist, the LW community is probably the biggest proponent of publishing long-dated predictions and calibrating their confidence based on their results and priors. If ANY group of people has a defensible history of trying to make verifiable/actionable predictions, it is LW.
- gwern 9y agoIf you think my predictions are bad in general and this is just cherrypicked, one can always review my 2,000+ expired predictions since ~2008: https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern https://predictionbook.com/users/gwern (I also have a profitable track record of personal & prediction market betting going back to ~2003.)