This is where a lawyer would have to answer. I'm certain that a detailed explanation would involve a mountain of cases and precedents. (I would guess that a lot

This is where a lawyer would have to answer. I'm certain that a detailed explanation would involve a mountain of cases and precedents. (I would guess that a lot of the precedent hinges on whether you are intentionally lying, or whether you are merely making a good-faith prediction. Pump-and-dump schemes are obviously the former.) The point is that, in general, deception for financial gain is fraud, more or less by definition. It doesn't have to involve regulated securities.