> The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. Indeed not, and I never said they were. Indeed if a rapist rapes one

> The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. Indeed not, and I never said they were. Indeed if a rapist rapes one woman, then he's more likely to do it again than a man who has never raped. My point was that it's less likely that a man will be accused of two unrelated rapes at the same time, than just be accused of one rape.