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Is there any doubt remaining that the goal of the Iranian government is to build a nuclear bomb? Is there any doubt that they will use it? Either directly or th

Is there any doubt remaining that the goal of the Iranian government is to build a nuclear bomb? Is there any doubt that they will use it? Either directly or through a proxy?

pjscott 16y ago
Sure there's doubt. They could just be using this as geopolitical maneuvering, plus internal propaganda. Having a credible nuclear program makes Iran's bargaining position much stronger. As for using it, why would Iran use it? What would they gain from such a thing? One nuclear missile is enough to kill a lot of people, and of course every death is a horrible tragedy, but it's not enough to really seriously hurt another country. Hell, it takes several nuclear missiles just to properly destroy a rail yard. Iran is being watched carefully enough that, if they used a nuclear bomb (either directly or through a proxy), it would be traced back to them, and the consequences would be dire. Nuclear bombs are far more useful to Iran as bargaining chips than as weapons.
- hga 16y ago
  "it's not enough to really seriously hurt another country" Are you really serious? Have you looked at a map to see how small Israel is? What about the problem that most countries are "one nuclear bomb" size, in that everything having to do with their ruling class is concentrated in one massive city? Which I grant would normally take much more than one fission bomb to destroy, but if the placement and wind directions are good, a lot will be uninhabitable for a while? London, Paris, Tokyo, Moscow, Seoul (I think), there's lots more. Notably the US and Germany aren't in this category (or so I think for the latter, which is an artifact of the end of WWII). Israel's big cities aren't, can't be that big nor are their very many of them (more than two that really count???). There's also the EMP gambit which might be used against us. As for rail yards, again, are you really serious? They're fantastically harder than civilian buildings.
gruseom 16y ago
It's rather surprising given the propaganda on this subject, but the consensus of US intelligence agencies remains that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. http://www.armscontrol.org/issuebriefs/irannie2007 http://www.armscontrol.org/issuebriefs/irannie2007
- hga 16y ago
  Ignoring everything else about that finding, if you read the fine print you'll note it excludes the enrichment of uranium to weapons grade. Which they certainly seem to be working furiously on. They don't need any additional work until they've got enough of that stuff. We know from the documents Libya surrendered to us after Saddam was pulled from his spider hole that the Kahn network acquired from the PRC the plans to a 44kT yield uranium implosion device. Plans so detailed they go down to the factory floor level in telling you "using "Loc-tite" of this variety, tighten this bolt to this torque".

Is there any doubt remaining that the goal of the Iranian government is to build a nuclear bomb? Is there any doubt that they will use it? Either directly or through a proxy?

pjscott 16y ago

Sure there's doubt. They could just be using this as geopolitical maneuvering, plus internal propaganda. Having a credible nuclear program makes Iran's bargaining position much stronger. As for using it, why would Iran use it? What would they gain from such a thing? One nuclear missile is enough to kill a lot of people, and of course every death is a horrible tragedy, but it's not enough to really seriously hurt another country. Hell, it takes several nuclear missiles just to properly destroy a rail yard. Iran is being watched carefully enough that, if they used a nuclear bomb (either directly or through a proxy), it would be traced back to them, and the consequences would be dire. Nuclear bombs are far more useful to Iran as bargaining chips than as weapons.

hga 16y ago
"it's not enough to really seriously hurt another country" Are you really serious? Have you looked at a map to see how small Israel is? What about the problem that most countries are "one nuclear bomb" size, in that everything having to do with their ruling class is concentrated in one massive city? Which I grant would normally take much more than one fission bomb to destroy, but if the placement and wind directions are good, a lot will be uninhabitable for a while? London, Paris, Tokyo, Moscow, Seoul (I think), there's lots more. Notably the US and Germany aren't in this category (or so I think for the latter, which is an artifact of the end of WWII). Israel's big cities aren't, can't be that big nor are their very many of them (more than two that really count???). There's also the EMP gambit which might be used against us. As for rail yards, again, are you really serious? They're fantastically harder than civilian buildings.

gruseom 16y ago

It's rather surprising given the propaganda on this subject, but the consensus of US intelligence agencies remains that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. http://www.armscontrol.org/issuebriefs/irannie2007 http://www.armscontrol.org/issuebriefs/irannie2007

hga 16y ago
Ignoring everything else about that finding, if you read the fine print you'll note it excludes the enrichment of uranium to weapons grade. Which they certainly seem to be working furiously on. They don't need any additional work until they've got enough of that stuff. We know from the documents Libya surrendered to us after Saddam was pulled from his spider hole that the Kahn network acquired from the PRC the plans to a 44kT yield uranium implosion device. Plans so detailed they go down to the factory floor level in telling you "using "Loc-tite" of this variety, tighten this bolt to this torque".