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It is a paradox in the sense that most of the educated guesses result in a universe which is very different from the one we observe. The paradox exists between:

It is a paradox in the sense that most of the educated guesses result in a universe which is very different from the one we observe. The paradox exists between: 1. the admittedly weak evidence for each of the guesses 2. and the evidence that at least one of the guesses must be wrong.

jcranmer 9y ago
Calling them "educated guesses" is overstating the evidence. We don't have the datapoints to estimate how common life is or isn't in the galaxy by empiricism, and we don't have the scientific knowledge to derive the numbers from first principles. Divorced from reality, that means that the educated guesses are really "we come up with numbers we want and then bullshit an explanation for those numbers." Another perspective is that, as we've understood better how our EM radiation percolates for space, radioastronomy basically can't find anyone who isn't in our solar system (except maybe if they directly try to talk to us). That means that even our failure to find life via SETI isn't evidence of anything.
- EthanHeilman 9y ago
  >the educated guesses are really "we come up with numbers we want and then bullshit an explanation for those numbers." tomayto, tomahto. You won't get a strong defense of most of particular values for the drake equation from me. The question that remains is which of our guesses are wrong and why? >Another perspective is that, as we've understood better how our EM radiation percolates for space, radioastronomy basically can't find anyone who isn't in our solar system (except maybe if they directly try to talk to us). There are other aspects of the universe that don't agree with common assumptions about how it should appear if it were swarming with technological civilizations with a billion year head start on us. For instance we have yet to detect any stellar/galactic engineering. Then again I'm not particularly convinced by our assumptions about a billion year old technological civilizations.

jcranmer 9y ago

Calling them "educated guesses" is overstating the evidence. We don't have the datapoints to estimate how common life is or isn't in the galaxy by empiricism, and we don't have the scientific knowledge to derive the numbers from first principles. Divorced from reality, that means that the educated guesses are really "we come up with numbers we want and then bullshit an explanation for those numbers." Another perspective is that, as we've understood better how our EM radiation percolates for space, radioastronomy basically can't find anyone who isn't in our solar system (except maybe if they directly try to talk to us). That means that even our failure to find life via SETI isn't evidence of anything.

EthanHeilman 9y ago
>the educated guesses are really "we come up with numbers we want and then bullshit an explanation for those numbers." tomayto, tomahto. You won't get a strong defense of most of particular values for the drake equation from me. The question that remains is which of our guesses are wrong and why? >Another perspective is that, as we've understood better how our EM radiation percolates for space, radioastronomy basically can't find anyone who isn't in our solar system (except maybe if they directly try to talk to us). There are other aspects of the universe that don't agree with common assumptions about how it should appear if it were swarming with technological civilizations with a billion year head start on us. For instance we have yet to detect any stellar/galactic engineering. Then again I'm not particularly convinced by our assumptions about a billion year old technological civilizations.