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This only works if EVs can be charged easily, everywhere. That is not currently the case, and given that I currently see no planning around this, I don't expec

This only works if EVs can be charged easily, everywhere. That is not currently the case, and given that I currently see no planning around this, I don't expect it to be the case by 2025 either. I briefly (very briefly) considered either a plugin hybrid or a full-electric vehicle. However, I can't charge anywhere - and that's a deal breaker. In 8 years, there will probably be somewhere I can charge, but not easily, and not without thinking about it ahead of time. EVs may reach the point of economic viability, but the lack of infrastructure sure looks like it will drag down their market share.

dragontamer 9y ago
By "Electric" btw, my current expectation for 2025 is that I'll buy a plug-in Hybrid at that time. I can charge at home / go to work each day, but then use the gas station for longer drives. IE: Volt or Prius have this sort of functionality. And surely newer vehicles (by 2025) will also support a similar use case. Tech probably will get better, but in my experience, long-term predictions tend to be overly optimistic. Fusion has been 10 years away for 50 years, electric cars too have been overly optimistic for quite some time. ($35,000 Model 3 doesn't exist yet. Only high-end ones as Tesla hasn't figured out the kinks yet, despite "launching" last August) Sometimes tech advances more quickly than expected (ie: high-speed internet). So if a very widespread electric network were built (and no, Tesla's supercharger isn't there yet for my use cases), then I might consider a pure electric vehicle at that time. But 2025 is a long ways away, so its something I'll just have to evaluate each year up to that point.
- mywittyname 9y ago
  > $35,000 Model 3 doesn't exist yet. The Bolt exists! It's not trendy or sexy, but it's an EV for the masses.
  - dragontamer 9y ago
    If I were to crash my car today and have to buy a new car... I'd probably get the Volt actually. I feel like the design tradeoffs on the Volt are a bit better for "mass market". The Bolt is still a good design though. Of course, I'm not planning on getting a car for another 7 years. So its a bit of a hypothetical. My statement about the Model3 is more about the overall optimism and poor predictions in general. I guess the Bolt is a surprise however: that GM could ramp up a pure electric vehicle so quickly. Its hard to say. 7 years is a long time. But the general rule of Science Fiction remains true: 90% of everything will remain the same. Only 10% of the world really changes per decade.
- rbanffy 9y ago
  Pure EVs will be cheaper simply because they are easier to build. Wheel-attached motors drive costs down significantly, removing hundreds of manufacturing steps.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
aphextron 9y ago
>This only works if EVs can be charged easily, everywhere. They can be. Electricity is omnipresent. It is available literally anywhere in the industrialized world. Compare this to gasoline, which must be shipped across the country/world, refined, and stored in highly specialized containers which take years of permitting and construction to build. All of that can be replaced with 220v electrical outlets. It's not a technical or financial challenge, but a cultural one. People have to get over the idea of going to a central point where they "fill up" their EV like a gas station. You will simply charge everywhere you go. Work, school, malls, etc. It will become expected in short order that all parking spaces include some type of charging, and once you get used to it it's not a big deal at all.
- dragontamer 9y ago
  > It is available literally anywhere in the industrialized world. A Tesla Supercharger is 120kW of power. A typical US house uses 74.75kW-hrs per day (if averaged over 16-hours, that's 5kW per hour). Even if you dropped down to a typical "L2" charging station of 7.2kW(roughly 10-miles of charge every hour), each charging car is virtually the same electricity usage as an entire residential house. 10kW of Solar Panels is easily "googlable" if you want to estimate the costs of this kind of infrastructure. Buy a 10kW panel for each car you want to charge in your parking lot, and you can see how expensive this can get. With current levels of infrastructure, it is probably infeasible to charge more than 10 cars in most parking garages today. You'd have to build transformers of significantly higher power to supply the electricity required at schools, work, malls, etc. etc. And then there is the question of "who pays for all this infrastructure", as well as "who pays for the electricity". Finally, with "smart grids", we still need to decide upon policies when the grid is overpowered as well as underpowered. Some smart-grid systems will run air-conditioning at half-power during underpowered grid status for example, should car charging in parking lots also run at half or less charging speed in the case of poor grid functionality??? Its a non-trivial problem. 3 or 4 L1 chargers in a parking lot (which barely gives 3-miles of charge per hour) is practically useless to the typical consumer. Electric car owners will rely upon a 240V L2 unit in their garage if they want to be practical about all of this. As well as a car that has a big enough battery to take yourself to work (the mall, the school) and back on a single charge. In summary: there are cultural, infrastructure, AND policy questions that need to be answered should electric chargers be widely deployed in a typical parking lot.

dragontamer 9y ago

By "Electric" btw, my current expectation for 2025 is that I'll buy a plug-in Hybrid at that time. I can charge at home / go to work each day, but then use the gas station for longer drives. IE: Volt or Prius have this sort of functionality. And surely newer vehicles (by 2025) will also support a similar use case. Tech probably will get better, but in my experience, long-term predictions tend to be overly optimistic. Fusion has been 10 years away for 50 years, electric cars too have been overly optimistic for quite some time. ($35,000 Model 3 doesn't exist yet. Only high-end ones as Tesla hasn't figured out the kinks yet, despite "launching" last August) Sometimes tech advances more quickly than expected (ie: high-speed internet). So if a very widespread electric network were built (and no, Tesla's supercharger isn't there yet for my use cases), then I might consider a pure electric vehicle at that time. But 2025 is a long ways away, so its something I'll just have to evaluate each year up to that point.

mywittyname 9y ago
> $35,000 Model 3 doesn't exist yet. The Bolt exists! It's not trendy or sexy, but it's an EV for the masses.
- dragontamer 9y ago
  If I were to crash my car today and have to buy a new car... I'd probably get the Volt actually. I feel like the design tradeoffs on the Volt are a bit better for "mass market". The Bolt is still a good design though. Of course, I'm not planning on getting a car for another 7 years. So its a bit of a hypothetical. My statement about the Model3 is more about the overall optimism and poor predictions in general. I guess the Bolt is a surprise however: that GM could ramp up a pure electric vehicle so quickly. Its hard to say. 7 years is a long time. But the general rule of Science Fiction remains true: 90% of everything will remain the same. Only 10% of the world really changes per decade.
rbanffy 9y ago
Pure EVs will be cheaper simply because they are easier to build. Wheel-attached motors drive costs down significantly, removing hundreds of manufacturing steps.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

aphextron 9y ago

>This only works if EVs can be charged easily, everywhere. They can be. Electricity is omnipresent. It is available literally anywhere in the industrialized world. Compare this to gasoline, which must be shipped across the country/world, refined, and stored in highly specialized containers which take years of permitting and construction to build. All of that can be replaced with 220v electrical outlets. It's not a technical or financial challenge, but a cultural one. People have to get over the idea of going to a central point where they "fill up" their EV like a gas station. You will simply charge everywhere you go. Work, school, malls, etc. It will become expected in short order that all parking spaces include some type of charging, and once you get used to it it's not a big deal at all.

dragontamer 9y ago
> It is available literally anywhere in the industrialized world. A Tesla Supercharger is 120kW of power. A typical US house uses 74.75kW-hrs per day (if averaged over 16-hours, that's 5kW per hour). Even if you dropped down to a typical "L2" charging station of 7.2kW(roughly 10-miles of charge every hour), each charging car is virtually the same electricity usage as an entire residential house. 10kW of Solar Panels is easily "googlable" if you want to estimate the costs of this kind of infrastructure. Buy a 10kW panel for each car you want to charge in your parking lot, and you can see how expensive this can get. With current levels of infrastructure, it is probably infeasible to charge more than 10 cars in most parking garages today. You'd have to build transformers of significantly higher power to supply the electricity required at schools, work, malls, etc. etc. And then there is the question of "who pays for all this infrastructure", as well as "who pays for the electricity". Finally, with "smart grids", we still need to decide upon policies when the grid is overpowered as well as underpowered. Some smart-grid systems will run air-conditioning at half-power during underpowered grid status for example, should car charging in parking lots also run at half or less charging speed in the case of poor grid functionality??? Its a non-trivial problem. 3 or 4 L1 chargers in a parking lot (which barely gives 3-miles of charge per hour) is practically useless to the typical consumer. Electric car owners will rely upon a 240V L2 unit in their garage if they want to be practical about all of this. As well as a car that has a big enough battery to take yourself to work (the mall, the school) and back on a single charge. In summary: there are cultural, infrastructure, AND policy questions that need to be answered should electric chargers be widely deployed in a typical parking lot.