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I find it astonishing that many here seem so ignorant of the looming crisis and the consequences. In a twisted way I actually welcome the turbulence that it wil

I find it astonishing that many here seem so ignorant of the looming crisis and the consequences. In a twisted way I actually welcome the turbulence that it will bring, many have been in recession for years, so it wont make much difference to them, but all you who are looking forward to VC backing should be a little more concerned. Mind you, most of the ideas that are currently being backed seem little more than pipe dreams, and as for a 15 billion dollar valuation of FB, I think that has some merit, of course I also predict that a couple of years where inflation of US dollar outstrips that of zimbabway.

wanorris 19y ago
Talking about a large-scale financial crisis that you have long foreseen unlike everyone else and failing to provide any supporting evidence (or even analysis) makes you indistinguishable from a crank. If you are not a crank, you're going to have to provide more evidence or analysis to be taken seriously.
- david927 19y ago
  I've also seen it coming for a long time and can point to every friend and relative as a reference. That whole time, for the last year and a half especially, I was always thought to be a crank. Now that it's happening, I'm a crank because it seems impossible to predict? Remember, a black swan isn't unpredictable; it's only unpredictable to the majority. The turkey spends two years thinking the butcher is the greatest guy in the world, until the last day -- the black swan. But to the butcher, it's not a black swan at all. I don't know about agentbleu, but I don't have evidence to support my conclusion. I only read the news and used Google. I assure you that Soros has it right and this will end up being worse than the Great Depression.
  - davidw 19y ago
    1) Black swans, according to Taleb are not predictable. That's what he keeps repeating. He doesn't lay any claim to superior prediction capabilities. He merely says that they occur more often than people think, and invested accordingly. He does mention that some are predictable for some people, but I don't think financial markets fall into that category outside of special cases like insider trading. 2) How can people vote up and take seriously a comment like "where inflation of US dollar outstrips that of zimbabway." [sic] ? Do you really believe that? I too vote: "not hacker news". Other sites have plenty of "doom! gloom!" stories if that's your thing.
    - DanielBMarkham 19y ago
      I'd like to think that hacker news is an upbeat site. If the world catches fire, we're the guys who will be making fire extinguishers. Perhaps it is me, but I like to think of starting a new venture to be an upbeat, positive, optimistic way of life. Observations about the state of the world or the economy are interesting only so much as they fit into startup plans, and time has shown again and again that you can run a startup in any environment. Just my two cents.
      - davidw 19y ago
        What seems to drive a lot of these "sky is falling" stories are people's political or economic beliefs. "Look, Bush screwed up!", or "Ron Paul was right!", or "Marx called it all along, capitalism is broken!". So naturally talk soon turns to politics and economics, and you get everyone peddling their favorite weird theory, and the net.kooks who weren't really interested in startups or tech start popping up because they smell blood in the water. That's my two cents, and why I would nuke it, and stories like it, from orbit - "because it's the only way to be sure":-) There are plenty of other places to talk about stories like this.
      - david927 19y ago
        I agree that if you're starting a new venture and you don't have optimism, you won't get anywhere. But if you also hide from reality, you're toast as well. This stuff isn't from 'sky is falling' kooks -- it's from Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers and Paul Krugman... a long list of the great financial and economic minds. Here it's Soros. But they'll all be ignored until it's too late. People don't want bad news, just good news. In my mind, that's why this is, actually, hacker news. A start up is a little boat. We need to know when the storm is coming earlier than others and take action: http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2008/04/battening-down.html http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2008/04/battening-down.html
    - david927 19y ago
      David, the turkey and the butcher story? That's Taleb's story, not mine. And it's important because it shows that to see a black swan coming, you often have to look at things from a different perspective. Second, sure the US dollar won't be as bad as the Zim dollar. That's hyperbole, but the truth is that it's going to get much worse before it's over. That's doom and gloom, but it's less so when you raise yourself above turkey-level and at least attempt to manage around it.
  - wanorris 19y ago
    If you had neither evidence nor analysis to support your prediction, then it's hard to distinguish it from being right in a "stopped clock" sense.
yters 19y ago
I am one of said ignorants. Can you point me to more info?

wanorris 19y ago

Talking about a large-scale financial crisis that you have long foreseen unlike everyone else and failing to provide any supporting evidence (or even analysis) makes you indistinguishable from a crank. If you are not a crank, you're going to have to provide more evidence or analysis to be taken seriously.

david927 19y ago
I've also seen it coming for a long time and can point to every friend and relative as a reference. That whole time, for the last year and a half especially, I was always thought to be a crank. Now that it's happening, I'm a crank because it seems impossible to predict? Remember, a black swan isn't unpredictable; it's only unpredictable to the majority. The turkey spends two years thinking the butcher is the greatest guy in the world, until the last day -- the black swan. But to the butcher, it's not a black swan at all. I don't know about agentbleu, but I don't have evidence to support my conclusion. I only read the news and used Google. I assure you that Soros has it right and this will end up being worse than the Great Depression.
- davidw 19y ago
  1) Black swans, according to Taleb are not predictable. That's what he keeps repeating. He doesn't lay any claim to superior prediction capabilities. He merely says that they occur more often than people think, and invested accordingly. He does mention that some are predictable for some people, but I don't think financial markets fall into that category outside of special cases like insider trading. 2) How can people vote up and take seriously a comment like "where inflation of US dollar outstrips that of zimbabway." [sic] ? Do you really believe that? I too vote: "not hacker news". Other sites have plenty of "doom! gloom!" stories if that's your thing.
  - DanielBMarkham 19y ago
    I'd like to think that hacker news is an upbeat site. If the world catches fire, we're the guys who will be making fire extinguishers. Perhaps it is me, but I like to think of starting a new venture to be an upbeat, positive, optimistic way of life. Observations about the state of the world or the economy are interesting only so much as they fit into startup plans, and time has shown again and again that you can run a startup in any environment. Just my two cents.
    - davidw 19y ago
      What seems to drive a lot of these "sky is falling" stories are people's political or economic beliefs. "Look, Bush screwed up!", or "Ron Paul was right!", or "Marx called it all along, capitalism is broken!". So naturally talk soon turns to politics and economics, and you get everyone peddling their favorite weird theory, and the net.kooks who weren't really interested in startups or tech start popping up because they smell blood in the water. That's my two cents, and why I would nuke it, and stories like it, from orbit - "because it's the only way to be sure":-) There are plenty of other places to talk about stories like this.
    - david927 19y ago
      I agree that if you're starting a new venture and you don't have optimism, you won't get anywhere. But if you also hide from reality, you're toast as well. This stuff isn't from 'sky is falling' kooks -- it's from Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers and Paul Krugman... a long list of the great financial and economic minds. Here it's Soros. But they'll all be ignored until it's too late. People don't want bad news, just good news. In my mind, that's why this is, actually, hacker news. A start up is a little boat. We need to know when the storm is coming earlier than others and take action: http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2008/04/battening-down.html http://avc.blogs.com/a_vc/2008/04/battening-down.html
  - david927 19y ago
    David, the turkey and the butcher story? That's Taleb's story, not mine. And it's important because it shows that to see a black swan coming, you often have to look at things from a different perspective. Second, sure the US dollar won't be as bad as the Zim dollar. That's hyperbole, but the truth is that it's going to get much worse before it's over. That's doom and gloom, but it's less so when you raise yourself above turkey-level and at least attempt to manage around it.
- wanorris 19y ago
  If you had neither evidence nor analysis to support your prediction, then it's hard to distinguish it from being right in a "stopped clock" sense.

yters 19y ago

I am one of said ignorants. Can you point me to more info?