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Smear campaign? Only according to the accused rapist. Scenario 1: Two Swedish women really are pressing charges against Mr. Assange. Scenario 2: The U.S. Pen

Smear campaign? Only according to the accused rapist. Scenario 1: Two Swedish women really are pressing charges against Mr. Assange. Scenario 2: The U.S. Pentagon is so upset by Wikileaks that they've convinced a Swedish prosecutor to file baseless rape charges, without actual victims, against the Wikileaks spokesman. The simplest explanation is the most likely.

jacquesm 16y ago
Scenario 1a, two Swedish women get a bunch of cash in return for filing a bogus charge of rape (edit: which is just as hard to prove as it is to disprove, causing a lot of smoke absent any fire at a time when wikileaks needs to be seen as 'clean' and on the moral high ground). It's not as if governments haven't been doing shit like this for ages. Indeed, the simplest explanation is the most likely. Until this hit the wires I figured Assange is just a bit too paranoid, this charge is so over the top that I'm no longer convinced he's paranoid but that he was right all along. After all, not one but two rape cases out of the blue reported by two women that know each other just when wikileaks is about to release a bunch of incriminating material after refusing to budge under pressure? It's technically possible, but that's the only thing this charge has going for it at this point in time, evidence is what it is all about.
- shrikant 16y ago
  Indeed. I was always curious - if the RIAA/MPAA could flex international muscle to get ThePirateBay raided, why not the Pentagon/CIA?
  - jarin 16y ago
    I'm more scared of the RIAA than I am of the CIA.
    - shrikant 16y ago
      Well yeah, the chances of you having done something that would piss off the RIAA are way more than having done something that the CIA would frown at :)
tomjen3 16y ago
The simplest explanation is this: the US paid two Swedish women to accuse Mr. Assange of rape. This isn't unusual - most rape accusations are false, since there are a lot of sociopaths out there (who have no shame), and the real victims are too ashamed to step forward.
- jacquesm 16y ago
  > most rape accusations are false That does a disservice to the very large number of rape victims out there. Some rape accusations are false, but to claim the majority of them is false would require a citation I think. For instance: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166281.php http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166281.php reports that most of the 'good' (as in done in a scientific setting) studies report 8 to 10% of rape accusations are false. See also: http://www.slate.com/id/2231012/ http://www.slate.com/id/2231012/
  - m_eiman 16y ago
    > most rape accusations are false That does a disservice to the very large number of rape victims out there. Some rape accusations are false, but to claim the majority of them is false would require a citation I think. Indeed. I've often heard that claim from people who don't (or don't want to) believe that in most cases of rape the victim knows the perpetrator. According to statistics in Sweden, only one third of rapes are performed by someone unknown to the victim[1]. There was a case like this on TV here recently, where a young boy who has been found guilty of rape (twice!) gets a lot of sympathy from his community while the victims are trash-talked along the lines of "she actually wanted it and changed her mind later"[2]. 1: (swedish pdf) http://www.bra.se/extra/measurepoint/?module_instance=4&name=2008_13_V_ldt_kt_mot_personer_15__r_och__ldre_webb.pdf&url=/dynamaster/file_archive/090206/440830a000c40c402bf765c88ba70b5e/2008%255f13%255fV%255fldt%255fkt%255fmot%255fpersoner%255f15%255f%255fr%255foch%255f%255fldre%255fwebb.pdf http://www.bra.se/extra/measurepoint/?module_instance=4&... 2: (more swedish) http://www.google.se/search?q=uppdrag+granskning+v%C3%A5ldt%C3%A4kt&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:sv-SE:official&client=firefox-a http://www.google.se/search?q=uppdrag+granskning+v%C3%A5ldt%... [edit, added] Oh, I also forgot one very interesting question: why would a woman falsely accuse someone of rape? In the case of a custody battle I can see the logic, but what would be the gain of accusing an acquaintance (who account for a third of reported rapes)? If it's a case of "did something she later regrets", wouldn't it be a lot easier to just deny that it ever happened?
noverloop 16y ago
Scenario 2 should be 'The pentagon payed two women to file a credible suit based on their most accurate Intel about his whereabouts.'
m_eiman 16y ago
Scenario 1.1: Two women file false reports of one rape and one sexual harassment; possibly on behalf of the US government (or someone else who doesn't like Wikileaks) Scenario 1.2: Someone who knows his every move is being watched (by the media, if nothing else) rapes one woman and sexually harasses another one in under two weeks. The simplest explanation is often the correct one, but that doesn't mean we should restrict ourselves to just two possible explanations. Also your second scenario doesn't match the currently known facts: the women who filed the reports aren't made up, regardless of whether the charges are.
- mseebach 16y ago
  Rapes are seldom the outcome of a rational decision. Scenario 1.3: Assange parties with two women, gets slightly too fresh with them and the ensuing sex wasn't completely as agreed on. Scenario 1.4: Assange parties with two women and the morning after, they decide he's a douchebag and gets worked up that he took advantage of them and what happened was really, actually rape.
  - waterlesscloud 16y ago
    Your scenarios also raise the possibility that judgement-inhibiting substances such as alcohol may have been involved in his decision making at the time.
cabalamat 16y ago
I disagree. What are the probabilities that: (1) an average man is accused of rape (say in a year) (2) a person who a government would very much like to bring down is the subject of made-up allegations Regarding (1), i don't have figures for Sweden but in the UK there are c. 14k reported rapes a year versus 25M adult males, so P = 14k/25M = 0.00056 Regarding (2), I don't have figures but suggest off the top of my head that 0.01 is reasonable. 0.00056/(0.00056+0.01) = 0.053 So Bayes' theorem suggests a roughly 5% probability that the accusations are real and 95% that they are concocted by the US or some other government.
- cabalamat 16y ago
  Oops my analysis was wrong -- there are two rape cases. Probability of two unrelated rape cases coming to light just at a time convenient for the US authorities -- about as likely as me getting pocket aces in every hand during a poker evening.
  - tome 16y ago
    The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. This is the worst statistical fallacy you can commit. Please see the following for further tragic details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow#Cot_death_trial_controversies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow#Cot_death_trial_cont...
    - cabalamat 16y ago
      > The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. Indeed not, and I never said they were. Indeed if a rapist rapes one woman, then he's more likely to do it again than a man who has never raped. My point was that it's less likely that a man will be accused of two unrelated rapes at the same time, than just be accused of one rape.
Tautologistics 16y ago
Scenario 3: Assange coordinated with these two women to file charges in order to convince people that he really is under attack by various governments and garners more support for his cause and efforts. I do not necessarily believe this scenario but since where throwing possibilities out there.

jacquesm 16y ago

Scenario 1a, two Swedish women get a bunch of cash in return for filing a bogus charge of rape (edit: which is just as hard to prove as it is to disprove, causing a lot of smoke absent any fire at a time when wikileaks needs to be seen as 'clean' and on the moral high ground). It's not as if governments haven't been doing shit like this for ages. Indeed, the simplest explanation is the most likely. Until this hit the wires I figured Assange is just a bit too paranoid, this charge is so over the top that I'm no longer convinced he's paranoid but that he was right all along. After all, not one but two rape cases out of the blue reported by two women that know each other just when wikileaks is about to release a bunch of incriminating material after refusing to budge under pressure? It's technically possible, but that's the only thing this charge has going for it at this point in time, evidence is what it is all about.

shrikant 16y ago
Indeed. I was always curious - if the RIAA/MPAA could flex international muscle to get ThePirateBay raided, why not the Pentagon/CIA?
- jarin 16y ago
  I'm more scared of the RIAA than I am of the CIA.
  - shrikant 16y ago
    Well yeah, the chances of you having done something that would piss off the RIAA are way more than having done something that the CIA would frown at :)

tomjen3 16y ago

The simplest explanation is this: the US paid two Swedish women to accuse Mr. Assange of rape. This isn't unusual - most rape accusations are false, since there are a lot of sociopaths out there (who have no shame), and the real victims are too ashamed to step forward.

jacquesm 16y ago
> most rape accusations are false That does a disservice to the very large number of rape victims out there. Some rape accusations are false, but to claim the majority of them is false would require a citation I think. For instance: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166281.php http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166281.php reports that most of the 'good' (as in done in a scientific setting) studies report 8 to 10% of rape accusations are false. See also: http://www.slate.com/id/2231012/ http://www.slate.com/id/2231012/
- m_eiman 16y ago
  > most rape accusations are false That does a disservice to the very large number of rape victims out there. Some rape accusations are false, but to claim the majority of them is false would require a citation I think. Indeed. I've often heard that claim from people who don't (or don't want to) believe that in most cases of rape the victim knows the perpetrator. According to statistics in Sweden, only one third of rapes are performed by someone unknown to the victim[1]. There was a case like this on TV here recently, where a young boy who has been found guilty of rape (twice!) gets a lot of sympathy from his community while the victims are trash-talked along the lines of "she actually wanted it and changed her mind later"[2]. 1: (swedish pdf) http://www.bra.se/extra/measurepoint/?module_instance=4&name=2008_13_V_ldt_kt_mot_personer_15__r_och__ldre_webb.pdf&url=/dynamaster/file_archive/090206/440830a000c40c402bf765c88ba70b5e/2008%255f13%255fV%255fldt%255fkt%255fmot%255fpersoner%255f15%255f%255fr%255foch%255f%255fldre%255fwebb.pdf http://www.bra.se/extra/measurepoint/?module_instance=4&... 2: (more swedish) http://www.google.se/search?q=uppdrag+granskning+v%C3%A5ldt%C3%A4kt&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:sv-SE:official&client=firefox-a http://www.google.se/search?q=uppdrag+granskning+v%C3%A5ldt%... [edit, added] Oh, I also forgot one very interesting question: why would a woman falsely accuse someone of rape? In the case of a custody battle I can see the logic, but what would be the gain of accusing an acquaintance (who account for a third of reported rapes)? If it's a case of "did something she later regrets", wouldn't it be a lot easier to just deny that it ever happened?

noverloop 16y ago

Scenario 2 should be 'The pentagon payed two women to file a credible suit based on their most accurate Intel about his whereabouts.'

m_eiman 16y ago

Scenario 1.1: Two women file false reports of one rape and one sexual harassment; possibly on behalf of the US government (or someone else who doesn't like Wikileaks) Scenario 1.2: Someone who knows his every move is being watched (by the media, if nothing else) rapes one woman and sexually harasses another one in under two weeks. The simplest explanation is often the correct one, but that doesn't mean we should restrict ourselves to just two possible explanations. Also your second scenario doesn't match the currently known facts: the women who filed the reports aren't made up, regardless of whether the charges are.

mseebach 16y ago
Rapes are seldom the outcome of a rational decision. Scenario 1.3: Assange parties with two women, gets slightly too fresh with them and the ensuing sex wasn't completely as agreed on. Scenario 1.4: Assange parties with two women and the morning after, they decide he's a douchebag and gets worked up that he took advantage of them and what happened was really, actually rape.
- waterlesscloud 16y ago
  Your scenarios also raise the possibility that judgement-inhibiting substances such as alcohol may have been involved in his decision making at the time.

cabalamat 16y ago

I disagree. What are the probabilities that: (1) an average man is accused of rape (say in a year) (2) a person who a government would very much like to bring down is the subject of made-up allegations Regarding (1), i don't have figures for Sweden but in the UK there are c. 14k reported rapes a year versus 25M adult males, so P = 14k/25M = 0.00056 Regarding (2), I don't have figures but suggest off the top of my head that 0.01 is reasonable. 0.00056/(0.00056+0.01) = 0.053 So Bayes' theorem suggests a roughly 5% probability that the accusations are real and 95% that they are concocted by the US or some other government.

cabalamat 16y ago
Oops my analysis was wrong -- there are two rape cases. Probability of two unrelated rape cases coming to light just at a time convenient for the US authorities -- about as likely as me getting pocket aces in every hand during a poker evening.
- tome 16y ago
  The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. This is the worst statistical fallacy you can commit. Please see the following for further tragic details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow#Cot_death_trial_controversies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Meadow#Cot_death_trial_cont...
  - cabalamat 16y ago
    > The probabilities of a man committing each of two individual rapes are not independent. Indeed not, and I never said they were. Indeed if a rapist rapes one woman, then he's more likely to do it again than a man who has never raped. My point was that it's less likely that a man will be accused of two unrelated rapes at the same time, than just be accused of one rape.

Tautologistics 16y ago

Scenario 3: Assange coordinated with these two women to file charges in order to convince people that he really is under attack by various governments and garners more support for his cause and efforts. I do not necessarily believe this scenario but since where throwing possibilities out there.