7 ms·

The Google Unemployment Index

90 points by keyle 16y ago

nostrademons 16y ago
Anyone know what the spike surrounding July 23 was? Was there some announcement for unemployment data and associated stock market jump then? It seems far above the normal unemployment claims over the last 2 years, and then dropped back down to normal. Edit: answering my own question with the help of Google Custom Date Range search: http://www.google.com/search?q=unemployment&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:7/10/2010,cd_max:7/31/2010 http://www.google.com/search?q=unemployment&tbs=cdr:1,cd... The senate passed a law extending unemployment benefits on July 20, so I bet everybody affected for it saw the news story and searched to find out how the law affected them.
- pointillistic 16y ago
  The spike in July 2010 was the month long debate between republicans and democrats (and in the press) about The H.R.4213 - Unemployment Compensation Extension Act. http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h4213/show http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h4213/show Passed in Senate: July 20, 2010. Passed in Congress: July 22, 2010. Signed by President Obama: July 23, 2010. http://www.worldcorrespondents.com/unemployment-extension-july-23-2010-update-obama-signs-unemployment-benefits-extension-bill/887875 http://www.worldcorrespondents.com/unemployment-extension-ju...
pixelcloud 16y ago
It is interesting how the stock markets have done compared to the unemployment index. I wonder what that indicates?
- ramkalari 16y ago
  The stock market indices are declining starting mid-2007 just as the unemployment index starts rising. But,the markets seem to be holding ok even though the unemployment queries have started increasing of late.
troymc 16y ago
There's an interesting seasonal trend: a decline at the end of the calendar year, followed by a big jump in January. Why? Do lots of US people traditionally get laid off on Dec. 31? (The data is for US search traffic.)
- ben1040 16y ago
  My guess is seasonal retail employees, who were hired just for the Christmas rush.
  - angstrom 16y ago
    That was my first guess, but then why would these people expect any unemployment benefits? Isn't 26 weeks minimum employment required? Other possibility is that it's in bad taste to lay people off during the holidays. Makes more sense to do it after they've splurged on gifts...
    - sabj 16y ago
      You can also fire people before any incentives / bonuses would be received... though I don't know that that would really move the needle.
    - ben1040 16y ago
      I bet a lot of people may not know they don't qualify, Google it, and then discover the news that they can't collect on unemployment insurance.
- sleight42 16y ago
  Another possibility is that the already un-/underemployed are simply not looking as hard for jobs toward the end of the year because the relative emotional warmth and focus on family typical of the "holiday season" (Thanksgiving to New Years in the US) distracts them from their job search. It is also possible that white collar un-/underemployed aren't looking as hard during the holiday season because most offices are themselves so distracted by the holiday seasons. Anecdotally speaking, I've noticed a trend toward reduced hiring by companies during the the holidays. Finally, purely speculative but American companies may tend to avoid firing people during the holidays. Firing someone before Xmas is one of those tropes that appears in television dramas and comedies and is often performed by the "evil boss". This myth likely has some basis in fact.
bhellman1 16y ago
Pretty incredible. What would be even better would be if it was smart enough to predict a few months out based on historical data.
bradly 16y ago
Anyone know if the graph accounts for increases/decreases in Google's overall traffic or its index size?
- pierrefar 16y ago
  That was my first question, so for now, I'm thinking of it as useful for analysis of only short time frames. The assumption here is that in a given 3-month period, the volume of searches is probably sufficiently similar. This would break down near the end of the year in the USA when the volume of searches goes up as people shop online.
  - nostrademons 16y ago
    http://www.google.com/support/insights/bin/answer.py?answer=87284&cbid=-1f47pvjh7r7j1&src=cb&lev=index http://www.google.com/support/insights/bin/answer.py?answer=... I'd guess that the normalization process also applies over time as well, i.e. they compare the number of searches you're interested in vs. the total number of searches within that population.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]

90 points by keyle 16y ago

Anyone know what the spike surrounding July 23 was? Was there some announcement for unemployment data and associated stock market jump then? It seems far above the normal unemployment claims over the last 2 years, and then dropped back down to normal. Edit: answering my own question with the help of Google Custom Date Range search: http://www.google.com/search?q=unemployment&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:7/10/2010,cd_max:7/31/2010 http://www.google.com/search?q=unemployment&tbs=cdr:1,cd... The senate passed a law extending unemployment benefits on July 20, so I bet everybody affected for it saw the news story and searched to find out how the law affected them.

pointillistic 16y ago
The spike in July 2010 was the month long debate between republicans and democrats (and in the press) about The H.R.4213 - Unemployment Compensation Extension Act. http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h4213/show http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h4213/show Passed in Senate: July 20, 2010. Passed in Congress: July 22, 2010. Signed by President Obama: July 23, 2010. http://www.worldcorrespondents.com/unemployment-extension-july-23-2010-update-obama-signs-unemployment-benefits-extension-bill/887875 http://www.worldcorrespondents.com/unemployment-extension-ju...

pixelcloud 16y ago

It is interesting how the stock markets have done compared to the unemployment index. I wonder what that indicates?

ramkalari 16y ago
The stock market indices are declining starting mid-2007 just as the unemployment index starts rising. But,the markets seem to be holding ok even though the unemployment queries have started increasing of late.

troymc 16y ago

There's an interesting seasonal trend: a decline at the end of the calendar year, followed by a big jump in January. Why? Do lots of US people traditionally get laid off on Dec. 31? (The data is for US search traffic.)

ben1040 16y ago
My guess is seasonal retail employees, who were hired just for the Christmas rush.
- angstrom 16y ago
  That was my first guess, but then why would these people expect any unemployment benefits? Isn't 26 weeks minimum employment required? Other possibility is that it's in bad taste to lay people off during the holidays. Makes more sense to do it after they've splurged on gifts...
  - sabj 16y ago
    You can also fire people before any incentives / bonuses would be received... though I don't know that that would really move the needle.
  - ben1040 16y ago
    I bet a lot of people may not know they don't qualify, Google it, and then discover the news that they can't collect on unemployment insurance.
sleight42 16y ago
Another possibility is that the already un-/underemployed are simply not looking as hard for jobs toward the end of the year because the relative emotional warmth and focus on family typical of the "holiday season" (Thanksgiving to New Years in the US) distracts them from their job search. It is also possible that white collar un-/underemployed aren't looking as hard during the holiday season because most offices are themselves so distracted by the holiday seasons. Anecdotally speaking, I've noticed a trend toward reduced hiring by companies during the the holidays. Finally, purely speculative but American companies may tend to avoid firing people during the holidays. Firing someone before Xmas is one of those tropes that appears in television dramas and comedies and is often performed by the "evil boss". This myth likely has some basis in fact.

bhellman1 16y ago

Pretty incredible. What would be even better would be if it was smart enough to predict a few months out based on historical data.

bradly 16y ago

Anyone know if the graph accounts for increases/decreases in Google's overall traffic or its index size?

pierrefar 16y ago
That was my first question, so for now, I'm thinking of it as useful for analysis of only short time frames. The assumption here is that in a given 3-month period, the volume of searches is probably sufficiently similar. This would break down near the end of the year in the USA when the volume of searches goes up as people shop online.
- nostrademons 16y ago
  http://www.google.com/support/insights/bin/answer.py?answer=87284&cbid=-1f47pvjh7r7j1&src=cb&lev=index http://www.google.com/support/insights/bin/answer.py?answer=... I'd guess that the normalization process also applies over time as well, i.e. they compare the number of searches you're interested in vs. the total number of searches within that population.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]