4 ms·

> I felt compelled to point out that the chances of becoming a billionaire were pretty darn slim. There's something subtle here I disagree with... "chances of

> I felt compelled to point out that the chances of becoming a billionaire were pretty darn slim. There's something subtle here I disagree with... "chances of becoming a billionaire" - chance is involved, but so is choice. I see this a lot, people talking about becoming a billionaire as if it's a random thing. How many people make a serious commitment to becoming a billionaire, research how to do it, manage their time, and actively try? I'll wager - not too many. I've crunched the numbers on what it'd take to be a billionaire, and I'm not interested in putting in that time - I have science and art and writing to do. But I think I could if I set my mind to it. Or maybe not! But how many people actually look at what it'd take to become a billionaire, say, "Okay, I'm willing to do all of the first steps, then keep taking risks, investing wisely, consumingly moderate/lowly, and so on." How many people try, and how many of them succeed? I'll wager not many try, and quite a lot of those who seriously try succeed. Edit: About his general point about "wealth anorexia" - yeah, it's just money, not something worth evaluating yourself by. Make a lot of money because there's no real reason not to make a lot of money, so long as you're doing it by creating things people want and getting a small fraction of the value you create in return. This is a common point I see - people who aren't single-minded don't understand single-minded people. I tried to cover it here - http://www.sebastianmarshall.com/?p=107 http://www.sebastianmarshall.com/?p=107 - "Rule an Empire, a Fistful of Rice" - it's with excerpts from the Lone Wolf and Cub comic as an argument and eventual duel between two fallen samurai. The first is telling the second that he's doing bad things for money, and why does he need the money? No matter how much money you have, your belly only holds one fistful of rice. But he doesn't understand that people who build empires are very aware of that - the money is a tool for doing other things. Me, I'd like to make at least hundreds of millions so I can sponsor research, build hospitals, build universities, build temples, commission art and support artists, get great engineers working on amazing projects... a friend said he'd be happy making $80k and can't think of anything else he'd do with it. I said - really? Work on curing diseases, sponsor arts, build a private military and go dismantle the North Korean government? I can think of lots of things I'd do with a hell of a lot of money...

Jun8 16y ago
Excellent blog entry you have there, although I tend to agree more with Sakon: We should not disregard "higher principles", whatever those may be (religion, samurai code, etc.), otherwise, what good are the things that being single-minded brings us? I am curious, what happens to Daigoro?
- lionhearted 16y ago
  > Excellent blog entry you have there, Thank you, I write for the kind of people that hang out around Hacker News - please feel very free to comment, send questions, or drop me an email any time if something suits you or you agree/disagree/want to know more/etc. Multiple contact details in my profile. > although I tend to agree more with Sakon: We should not disregard "higher principles", whatever those may be (religion, samurai code, etc.), otherwise, what good are the things that being single-minded brings us? Indeed, that's one of the reasons Lone Wolf and Cub is so good - it doesn't show just one side, it makes intelligent arguments for both sides. Is it better to have multiple loose principles like Sakon and hold them inviolable, or hold one overarching principle sacred like Itto, even at the expense of doing littler things wrong? (Also, Itto requires full details of why he's performing an assassination, presumably because he makes some judgment call on when to do it) > I am curious, what happens to Daigoro? I don't know, I'm five books from finishing! It's 26 books long, a real epic sort of thing. You have to expect Itto succeeds at the end, that's how things work. But does he die at the end or live? Does Daigoro live or die? I'm not done yet, I'm really really curious to know.
jedc 16y ago
The chances of becoming a billionaire are even more slim than what the OP wrote. A number of billionaires become billionaires by inheritance or just modest growth of existing wealth. (Compared to NBA stars, who all have to prove themselves no matter their background.) To become a billionaire from middle-class means IS remarkable.
- lionhearted 16y ago
  > The chances of becoming a billionaire are even more slim than what the OP wrote. I think they're greater than he wrote - I bet there'll be over 5,000 billionaires in 20 years, and over 100,000 in 50 years. At least. Maybe more. > To become a billionaire from middle-class means IS remarkable. This I agree with. I'm lower middle class/upper lower class born actually, so would it be even more remarkable if I did it? But again, I have science and art and writing to do too, not to mention building a family, so billionaire isn't on my priorities list. I'm trying to have $50k in the bank at the end of this year, $300k in 3 years, $1 million in 5 years, and $10 million in the bank in ten years. I'll re-evaluate at that point, I think I could do it if I put myself to it single-mindedly, but I'm also writing books, learning about and making art, etc, etc. You give up a lot if you want to get there, but really all the stuff I've given up doesn't feel like such a loss compared to the joy of creating, producing, learning, connecting with people, serving people... I don't miss spectator sports, drinking, recreational drugs, surfing the 'net so much. Creation is joy.
bootload 16y ago
"... How many people make a serious commitment to becoming a billionaire, research how to do it, manage their time, and actively try? I'll wager - not too many try, and quite a lot of those who seriously try succeed...." Success or failure that is earned ignores the reality of an individuals station in life ~ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY [0] As for money, "be careful what you wish for". [0] Alain de Botton: "A kinder, gentler philosophy of success" TED 2009 ~ http://www.ted.com/talks/alain_de_botton_a_kinder_gentler_philosophy_of_success.html http://www.ted.com/talks/alain_de_botton_a_kinder_gentler_ph...
exit 16y ago
what kind of art?
Dn_Ab 16y ago
Agree with all your points except the private military part... One day I'm going to write about the many ways by which people conflate joint, conditional probability and probability spaces... It is true that the chance of a random individual to become a billionaire is extremely small but at any given point a particular individual is conditioned in a particular set of events that make it more or less likely. The chance of flipping 8 heads in a row is 0.39% but given you have already flipped 7 heads the chance is now 50%. The space for becoming successful is not directly predicated on the number of people attempting to or have already become successful, it is predicated on a whole set of traits, events and actions out of and in your control. Your chance in succeeding is not 1% or some other stupid number, it is an unknown quantity conditioned on your circumstances. By tweaking those in your control you can increase you chance of success to a higher (or lower) number. As you state, to become a billionaire for the sake of having some power of 10 of an abstract quantity tied to your name is a pretty empty way of life. Not to mention the justification for such a disproportionate distribution of wealth (unless you can argue that such an allocation allows a more efficient redistribution than otherwise, rarely the case) is frankly, unnecessary and possibly detrimental. Anyways, seems to me that the solution is to have your definition of success be more meaningful than an arbitrary number and to realize that at any given point there are a set of goals that are more realizable than others, picking those which maximize some short term p(success) which also taking you closest to your long term definition of success is all it takes. It is the journey and not the destination that is important. With constant engagement, feeling of moving forward and a wholesome but necessarily subjective notion of value then at any time you will be successful while at the same time becoming more successful. This to me seems to be pretty obvious and I have seen this advice in multiple forms in many places. Yet the original post and many others suggest this is not commonly held sense. This I do not understand.

Jun8 16y ago

Excellent blog entry you have there, although I tend to agree more with Sakon: We should not disregard "higher principles", whatever those may be (religion, samurai code, etc.), otherwise, what good are the things that being single-minded brings us? I am curious, what happens to Daigoro?

lionhearted 16y ago
> Excellent blog entry you have there, Thank you, I write for the kind of people that hang out around Hacker News - please feel very free to comment, send questions, or drop me an email any time if something suits you or you agree/disagree/want to know more/etc. Multiple contact details in my profile. > although I tend to agree more with Sakon: We should not disregard "higher principles", whatever those may be (religion, samurai code, etc.), otherwise, what good are the things that being single-minded brings us? Indeed, that's one of the reasons Lone Wolf and Cub is so good - it doesn't show just one side, it makes intelligent arguments for both sides. Is it better to have multiple loose principles like Sakon and hold them inviolable, or hold one overarching principle sacred like Itto, even at the expense of doing littler things wrong? (Also, Itto requires full details of why he's performing an assassination, presumably because he makes some judgment call on when to do it) > I am curious, what happens to Daigoro? I don't know, I'm five books from finishing! It's 26 books long, a real epic sort of thing. You have to expect Itto succeeds at the end, that's how things work. But does he die at the end or live? Does Daigoro live or die? I'm not done yet, I'm really really curious to know.

jedc 16y ago

The chances of becoming a billionaire are even more slim than what the OP wrote. A number of billionaires become billionaires by inheritance or just modest growth of existing wealth. (Compared to NBA stars, who all have to prove themselves no matter their background.) To become a billionaire from middle-class means IS remarkable.

lionhearted 16y ago
> The chances of becoming a billionaire are even more slim than what the OP wrote. I think they're greater than he wrote - I bet there'll be over 5,000 billionaires in 20 years, and over 100,000 in 50 years. At least. Maybe more. > To become a billionaire from middle-class means IS remarkable. This I agree with. I'm lower middle class/upper lower class born actually, so would it be even more remarkable if I did it? But again, I have science and art and writing to do too, not to mention building a family, so billionaire isn't on my priorities list. I'm trying to have $50k in the bank at the end of this year, $300k in 3 years, $1 million in 5 years, and $10 million in the bank in ten years. I'll re-evaluate at that point, I think I could do it if I put myself to it single-mindedly, but I'm also writing books, learning about and making art, etc, etc. You give up a lot if you want to get there, but really all the stuff I've given up doesn't feel like such a loss compared to the joy of creating, producing, learning, connecting with people, serving people... I don't miss spectator sports, drinking, recreational drugs, surfing the 'net so much. Creation is joy.

bootload 16y ago

"... How many people make a serious commitment to becoming a billionaire, research how to do it, manage their time, and actively try? I'll wager - not too many try, and quite a lot of those who seriously try succeed...." Success or failure that is earned ignores the reality of an individuals station in life ~ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtSE4rglxbY [0] As for money, "be careful what you wish for". [0] Alain de Botton: "A kinder, gentler philosophy of success" TED 2009 ~ http://www.ted.com/talks/alain_de_botton_a_kinder_gentler_philosophy_of_success.html http://www.ted.com/talks/alain_de_botton_a_kinder_gentler_ph...

exit 16y ago

what kind of art?

Dn_Ab 16y ago

Agree with all your points except the private military part... One day I'm going to write about the many ways by which people conflate joint, conditional probability and probability spaces... It is true that the chance of a random individual to become a billionaire is extremely small but at any given point a particular individual is conditioned in a particular set of events that make it more or less likely. The chance of flipping 8 heads in a row is 0.39% but given you have already flipped 7 heads the chance is now 50%. The space for becoming successful is not directly predicated on the number of people attempting to or have already become successful, it is predicated on a whole set of traits, events and actions out of and in your control. Your chance in succeeding is not 1% or some other stupid number, it is an unknown quantity conditioned on your circumstances. By tweaking those in your control you can increase you chance of success to a higher (or lower) number. As you state, to become a billionaire for the sake of having some power of 10 of an abstract quantity tied to your name is a pretty empty way of life. Not to mention the justification for such a disproportionate distribution of wealth (unless you can argue that such an allocation allows a more efficient redistribution than otherwise, rarely the case) is frankly, unnecessary and possibly detrimental. Anyways, seems to me that the solution is to have your definition of success be more meaningful than an arbitrary number and to realize that at any given point there are a set of goals that are more realizable than others, picking those which maximize some short term p(success) which also taking you closest to your long term definition of success is all it takes. It is the journey and not the destination that is important. With constant engagement, feeling of moving forward and a wholesome but necessarily subjective notion of value then at any time you will be successful while at the same time becoming more successful. This to me seems to be pretty obvious and I have seen this advice in multiple forms in many places. Yet the original post and many others suggest this is not commonly held sense. This I do not understand.