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4) Unmanned mining in space - as automation and machine learning progress capturing the right asteroid could bring in a few Billion or Trillion worth of nickle

4) Unmanned mining in space - as automation and machine learning progress capturing the right asteroid could bring in a few Billion or Trillion worth of nickle or whatever.

Balgair 9y ago
Honestly, I'm bearish on space mining. The Earth has a lot of unexplored volume left. The oceans' floors are relatively unexplored in terms of mineral wealth, even just 100 miles offshore. Antarctica is also a giant mystery, with many potentially rich mountain ranges sitting under 1/2 mile of ice. Heck, in Australia people will buy land, walk around, and just find nuggets of gold sitting on the dirt, it's something of a 'thing' there [0] So, 10k/lbs flight costs aren't cheap enough yet to justify the very hazardous environment and delta-V costs. Maybe in a century, but for now it's a ways off. [0] http://www.mining.com/this-australian-man-just-found-a-massive-145-ounce-gold-nugget/ http://www.mining.com/this-australian-man-just-found-a-massi...
- bonesss 9y ago
  Well, there is significant investment in this space (har har), with timelines much closer than a century making investors open their wallets today. And costs aren't really relevant in isolation, it's the ROI that matters. Space mining is not the answer to things we can find otherwise on the ground. It is the answer to how we build things in space, and get things we can't get in bulk down here. The right rock could reshape our relationship to some of the rare earth metals, for example. Mining en masse in remote regions is no picnic, so if hundreds of millions invested in going up can bring many billions down on demand, the economics will make sense. Mining Antarctica for hundreds of millions of tonnes for a not-so-interesting minerals offers an upside that pales in comparison to the amazing nuggets we have floating around the solar system... And if the economics are sound, technologically: if you combine a UAV and a brain about as good as we get in a Tesla you're just a few rockets away from some insane riches and the power to crush terrestrial markets on a whim... No soup for you <mineral producer>... that's the kind of thing Billionaires dream of. The promises of low and micro g manufacturing, the decreasing weight requirements and increase intelligence systems, and holding the economic 'high ground' for humanities next step offer the potential to move the needle more than a little. Launch tech is the big bottleneck, so keep an eye on SpaceX :)
  - Balgair 9y ago
    > it's the ROI that matters. So true! Your points about some unknown material/process in space being the key are correct. However, I don't think there is anything up there that we can't figure out how to make down here. There are some long, single grain, high weight elemental crystals that we can't make here, but they also takes millions of years to cool down in a vacuum. Space is really empty, and there really aren't any magic rocks up there. It's mostly just feldspar.

4) Unmanned mining in space - as automation and machine learning progress capturing the right asteroid could bring in a few Billion or Trillion worth of nickle or whatever.

Balgair 9y ago

Honestly, I'm bearish on space mining. The Earth has a lot of unexplored volume left. The oceans' floors are relatively unexplored in terms of mineral wealth, even just 100 miles offshore. Antarctica is also a giant mystery, with many potentially rich mountain ranges sitting under 1/2 mile of ice. Heck, in Australia people will buy land, walk around, and just find nuggets of gold sitting on the dirt, it's something of a 'thing' there [0] So, 10k/lbs flight costs aren't cheap enough yet to justify the very hazardous environment and delta-V costs. Maybe in a century, but for now it's a ways off. [0] http://www.mining.com/this-australian-man-just-found-a-massive-145-ounce-gold-nugget/ http://www.mining.com/this-australian-man-just-found-a-massi...

bonesss 9y ago
Well, there is significant investment in this space (har har), with timelines much closer than a century making investors open their wallets today. And costs aren't really relevant in isolation, it's the ROI that matters. Space mining is not the answer to things we can find otherwise on the ground. It is the answer to how we build things in space, and get things we can't get in bulk down here. The right rock could reshape our relationship to some of the rare earth metals, for example. Mining en masse in remote regions is no picnic, so if hundreds of millions invested in going up can bring many billions down on demand, the economics will make sense. Mining Antarctica for hundreds of millions of tonnes for a not-so-interesting minerals offers an upside that pales in comparison to the amazing nuggets we have floating around the solar system... And if the economics are sound, technologically: if you combine a UAV and a brain about as good as we get in a Tesla you're just a few rockets away from some insane riches and the power to crush terrestrial markets on a whim... No soup for you <mineral producer>... that's the kind of thing Billionaires dream of. The promises of low and micro g manufacturing, the decreasing weight requirements and increase intelligence systems, and holding the economic 'high ground' for humanities next step offer the potential to move the needle more than a little. Launch tech is the big bottleneck, so keep an eye on SpaceX :)
- Balgair 9y ago
  > it's the ROI that matters. So true! Your points about some unknown material/process in space being the key are correct. However, I don't think there is anything up there that we can't figure out how to make down here. There are some long, single grain, high weight elemental crystals that we can't make here, but they also takes millions of years to cool down in a vacuum. Space is really empty, and there really aren't any magic rocks up there. It's mostly just feldspar.