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This is as good a summary of what's going on in the GCC these days as I've seen since the blockade began in July, which is to say that everyone can describe wha
by kchoudhu 9y ago
This is as good a summary of what's going on in the GCC these days as I've seen since the blockade began in July, which is to say that everyone can describe what is happening, but no one seems to be able to explain why it is happening. The article's focus on regional leaders' egos is misplaced, I think, and fairly representative of our media's tendency to scrape the surface of any regional conflict that isn't in Europe or North America instead of looking for deeper explanations.
Given the absence of any analytical clarity, pet theories abound. Mine is that the Saudi-UAE nexus doesn't want the crisis to be resolved anytime soon: having a crisis on the periphery to distract from their domestic tribulations is too damned useful. Citizens are are less likely to complain about reduced government subsidies if the government periodically reminds them that there's a cold war with Qatar, a hot war in Yemen, and an existential crisis in the form Iran right on their periphery.
- Gibbon1 9y agoQatar has natural gas and connections to Iran. And is still in the black economically. When I look at Saudi Arabia it looks like over time their oil income which pays all the bills is fixed while their population keeps growing. Both common poor people and the number of ultra rich. Divide one by the other and it's not pretty. UAE has no oil or gas income and is living off loans. Probably part of the reason the current king in waiting is trying to also jack his more distant relations for cash.
- lobster_johnson 9y agoUAE has the seventh [1] largest oil reserves in the world, and is the eighth [2] largest producer, according to Wikipedia. How does it not have any income? Meanwhile, Qatar produces about half as much, on par with nations such as Norway. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_Ara... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_produ...
- jessaustin 9y agoUAE royals spend a great deal more on racehorses...
- lobster_johnson 9y agoParent said income, not profits.
- nikcub 9y ago> UAE has no oil or gas income and is living off loans. You're thinking of Dubai. The major emirate has always been Abu Dhabi and they're resource rich a.f (and they provider of many loans to Dubai, including financing of the Burj Khalifa)
- Gibbon1 9y agoYou're correct, was thinking of Dubai. My bad.
- jessaustin 9y agoAl Jazeera has got to have something to do with it, right? The biggest threats to royalty are always their subjects, and even if AJ is somewhat discredited as Qatari propaganda in its neighbor's societies, it is also certainly more than that. As someone from a different hemisphere, I have to say the AJ Roku app is the single best way I've found to watch news. No one is risking the ire of his rulers to check out what the Saudi news department is saying.
- kchoudhu 9y agoThe Al Jazeera thing always struck me as a canard: it's been in operation for the last 20 years, why did it suddenly become such a sticking point in 2017?
- baybal2 9y agoFew year prior, a Saudi King died at a surprisingly convenient moment
- jessaustin 9y agoISTM it probably happened in 2011? The young prince wasn't in a position to do anything at that time, although one can imagine that Salman was bringing him around to listen to the various old dudes then, and the topic probably came up. He certainly hit the ground running in 2015.
- kchoudhu 9y agoRunning is such an overstatement of what he's been up to though...
- jessaustin 9y ago"Hit the ground running" is an English (well, actually American) idiom. It seems to have originated among the hobos, who judged it the best way to jump from a moving train. MbS might not physically be ready to run anywhere. Still, no one outside Saudi had heard of him four years ago. Since then, he seems to have been much more effective in pursuing his political goals than anyone else on the peninsula?
- jpatokal 9y agoRemember, these are all royalties where power is concentrated in a few people. Local politics consists basically of various family factions jockeying for power, so it gets very personal very fast and egos are a huge thing.