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The % of the network they would control would be too high maybe? Fundamentally the value of their product is based on the price of bitcoin. A single miner that

by nimos 9y ago

The % of the network they would control would be too high maybe? Fundamentally the value of their product is based on the price of bitcoin. A single miner that gets close to 50% might be seen a a huge risk and drive down the price.

icelancer 9y ago
This is already the de facto case with Jihan. The threat is enough.
- dane-pgp 9y ago
  This article from last May says he has influence over 16.4% of blocks: https://www.investopedia.com/news/who-jihan-wu-and-does-he-basically-control-bitcoin-today/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/who-jihan-wu-and-does-he-b... Do you have any more recent numbers that tell a different story?
jen729w 9y ago
Let’s say some party/group gets 51%. Now they “own” the blockchain. Doesn’t its value drop to 0, thereby making the whole effort pointless? I’m not going to buy BTC (or whatever) from that system, therefore the owners take no cash from it. Yeah they have all the BTC, but so what? Everyone loses. What am I missing?
- wmf 9y ago
  The movie plot here is to secretly get 51% of the hashrate, cash out a billion-dollar fraud, then walk away. In reality it's unlikely to happen.
  - paulie_a 9y ago
    If that were possible, it would be a one time thing I am guessing. But it's possible to short bitcoin now I believe. So ruining the network/reputation could be profitable? I am speculating and don't know for sure.
    - wmf 9y ago
      You probably can't short a large enough amount to make it worthwhile. Also, due to Murphy's Law the price would probably go up.
- nimos 9y ago
  That's my point exactly. They sell them to other people to ensure that doesn't happen. Now I'm not actually sure if they produce enough for that to be relevant. But my understanding is they dominate the asic market and asics are the only thing that are profitable for mining bitcoin. It could be if they didn't sell and mined themselves they would have enough mining share to cause people to lose faith in the currency and crash the market.
- usrusr 9y ago
  > What am I missing? Shorts? Conventional wisdom states that a 51% attack would destroy the very same value it would misappropriate, but when you can bet real money on BTC crumbling you get an entirely different playing field. Still very unlikely as everybody with that kind of hashrate is already rewarded far too handsomely, but if someone ever offers shorts on one of the smaller altcoins, I'd almost expect someone to state an at least cost-neutral attack just for kicks.

by nimos 9y ago

icelancer 9y ago

This is already the de facto case with Jihan. The threat is enough.

dane-pgp 9y ago
This article from last May says he has influence over 16.4% of blocks: https://www.investopedia.com/news/who-jihan-wu-and-does-he-basically-control-bitcoin-today/ https://www.investopedia.com/news/who-jihan-wu-and-does-he-b... Do you have any more recent numbers that tell a different story?

jen729w 9y ago

Let’s say some party/group gets 51%. Now they “own” the blockchain. Doesn’t its value drop to 0, thereby making the whole effort pointless? I’m not going to buy BTC (or whatever) from that system, therefore the owners take no cash from it. Yeah they have all the BTC, but so what? Everyone loses. What am I missing?

wmf 9y ago
The movie plot here is to secretly get 51% of the hashrate, cash out a billion-dollar fraud, then walk away. In reality it's unlikely to happen.
- paulie_a 9y ago
  If that were possible, it would be a one time thing I am guessing. But it's possible to short bitcoin now I believe. So ruining the network/reputation could be profitable? I am speculating and don't know for sure.
  - wmf 9y ago
    You probably can't short a large enough amount to make it worthwhile. Also, due to Murphy's Law the price would probably go up.
nimos 9y ago
That's my point exactly. They sell them to other people to ensure that doesn't happen. Now I'm not actually sure if they produce enough for that to be relevant. But my understanding is they dominate the asic market and asics are the only thing that are profitable for mining bitcoin. It could be if they didn't sell and mined themselves they would have enough mining share to cause people to lose faith in the currency and crash the market.
usrusr 9y ago
> What am I missing? Shorts? Conventional wisdom states that a 51% attack would destroy the very same value it would misappropriate, but when you can bet real money on BTC crumbling you get an entirely different playing field. Still very unlikely as everybody with that kind of hashrate is already rewarded far too handsomely, but if someone ever offers shorts on one of the smaller altcoins, I'd almost expect someone to state an at least cost-neutral attack just for kicks.