4 ms·

It's great. Once ethereum etc. crash we can buy used high end graphic cards cheap.

by nn3 9y ago

sulam 9y ago
You really want to buy a card a miner has pushed hard for weeks and months on end with who-knows-what cooling?
- stordoff 9y ago
  Depends how far they crash. If it's cheap enough, it might be a worthwhile trade-off.
pram 9y ago
I’m not sure I’d want a card that’s been at full utilization, 24 hours a day, for who knows how long.
- visarga 9y ago
  I recently learned a really fascinating stuff about semiconductors: as they heat up, the doping atoms tend to move, by diffusion. Heat = more diffusion.
  - owenversteeg 9y ago
    Yep: atoms in general move more with more heat. In solids, the energy required for movement is higher, but it still happens. The more heat available, the more energy you have to break bonds, the more diffusion (movement) you have. I have a feeling that's not the main reason for heat failure of semiconductors though. (Not to put your comment down, it's an interesting fact and I'm glad you mentioned it.)
    - whatshisface 9y ago
      The weak link on a lot of hardware is the capacitors - I'm not sure about GPU cards, but if that's the case then you sure won't be replacing that surface mount stuff when it fails.
      - cglace 9y ago
        Why? All you need is a heat gun and some spare parts.
  - wmf 9y ago
    Another fun fact: Chips are designed to last years at full power and max temperature.
    - _coldfire 9y ago
      It's actually the temperature cycling that's far worse for them. Plenty of available reading on cryptocurrency mining forums.
- jagger27 9y ago
  I've read that thermal cycles do more damage than constant running.
  - laythea 9y ago
    Yep, this applies to most things. E.g Engines.
- userbinator 9y ago
  On the other hand, you can be sure these cards have made it well past the "infant mortality" part of the bathtub curve. In fact, military and other high-reliability applications specify "burn-in" periods where components are operated at elevated temperatures for several hundred hours --- they are effectively "used": http://reliabilityanalytics.com/reliability_engineering_library/MIL-STD-883H_Test_Method_Standard_Microcircuits_26_Feb_2010/MIL-STD-883H_Test_Method_Standard_Microcircuits_26_Feb_2010_pp_104.pdf http://reliabilityanalytics.com/reliability_engineering_libr...
- alkonaut 9y ago
  If I can buy a 1080 for $100 when they flood ebay, I'm willing to take my chances.
fermienrico 9y ago
What is the basis for an overwhelming assumption on HN that Cryto will crash? I am genuinely curious. What specifics indicate that it will crash?
- bby 9y ago
  market being propped up by tether
- richardknop 9y ago
  Most people here are engineers and can see through the buzz words all these crypto tokens are throwing around to lure in naive investors. So it's assumed that it is a bubble as majority of tokens are worthless from technical perspective.
- ufo 9y ago
  In the short term I think we may see Bitfinex/Tether blow up pretty soon. Just this last week they printed around $500M in fake money to keep bitcoin prices from falling.
- alkonaut 9y ago
  It doesn't have to crash. It just has to be uneconomic to mine on GPU's. For example by becoming too hard, or by switching to proof-of-stake. The question is rather whether there is another coin that will take over the workload of the rigs (I know too little about cryptocurrencies to know whether another coin will have the same properties as ether, i.e. be economic to mine on GPUs).
- IkmoIkmo 9y ago
  It's basically as if there were 300 new social media networks all popping up within 1 year, and 99% of them were clones of an open-source social media github, with a few minor alterations and a ton of marketing fluff, with perhaps 2-3 social media networks (Facebook, Instagram, Reddit) commanding 90% of the market. There's just no utility behind all these coins. Hell, there aren't even any significant amount of bitcoin users, let alone Ethereum or Ripple, or any of the ridiculous coins. They're all presenting themselves as interesting for their utility, but are valued as an extremely short-term store of value play. It just can't last. Lastly, note that there's only 3 cryptos that have a market cap of at least 10% of that of Bitcoin, and one is Bitcoin Cash so it doesn't count. The other are Ripple and Ethereum. Ripple has proof of stake (i.e., no mining is necessary) and Ethereum is expected to go proof of stake in the next hard fork, likely this year. Just to put that into perspective. Nvidia's revenues are about $7b a year, AMD about 4 billion, let's say together 12b. They command pretty much 100% of the discrete GPU market, with Intel being the major integrated market player that is irrelevant in this context. Then look at https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption for an idea about mining revenues. It's about $14b a year, and electricity costs estimate the after-electricity profits at about $12b a year. Now you'd expect that a miner who can make $12 by turning on a device (with its electricity already paid for), is willing to pay anywhere between $0 and $12, and that with enough competition, they'll spend close to $12. That gives you a rough idea about how significant Ethereum is as a player, with Bitcoin running on Asics and Ripple already at Proof of Stake, and most other coins being quite insignificant (and also a combination of Proof of Stake or Asics based like Litecoin, anyway). So in short: I think cryptos will crash and even if a lot of them remain, I argue a lot of this price pressure is due to the few big coins of which only ethereum has viable GPU mining and that'll end in 2018.

It's great. Once ethereum etc. crash we can buy used high end graphic cards cheap.

by nn3 9y ago

It's great. Once ethereum etc. crash we can buy used high end graphic cards cheap.

sulam 9y ago

You really want to buy a card a miner has pushed hard for weeks and months on end with who-knows-what cooling?

stordoff 9y ago
Depends how far they crash. If it's cheap enough, it might be a worthwhile trade-off.

pram 9y ago

I’m not sure I’d want a card that’s been at full utilization, 24 hours a day, for who knows how long.

visarga 9y ago
I recently learned a really fascinating stuff about semiconductors: as they heat up, the doping atoms tend to move, by diffusion. Heat = more diffusion.
- owenversteeg 9y ago
  Yep: atoms in general move more with more heat. In solids, the energy required for movement is higher, but it still happens. The more heat available, the more energy you have to break bonds, the more diffusion (movement) you have. I have a feeling that's not the main reason for heat failure of semiconductors though. (Not to put your comment down, it's an interesting fact and I'm glad you mentioned it.)
  - whatshisface 9y ago
    The weak link on a lot of hardware is the capacitors - I'm not sure about GPU cards, but if that's the case then you sure won't be replacing that surface mount stuff when it fails.
    - cglace 9y ago
      Why? All you need is a heat gun and some spare parts.
- wmf 9y ago
  Another fun fact: Chips are designed to last years at full power and max temperature.
  - _coldfire 9y ago
    It's actually the temperature cycling that's far worse for them. Plenty of available reading on cryptocurrency mining forums.
jagger27 9y ago
I've read that thermal cycles do more damage than constant running.
- laythea 9y ago
  Yep, this applies to most things. E.g Engines.
userbinator 9y ago
On the other hand, you can be sure these cards have made it well past the "infant mortality" part of the bathtub curve. In fact, military and other high-reliability applications specify "burn-in" periods where components are operated at elevated temperatures for several hundred hours --- they are effectively "used": http://reliabilityanalytics.com/reliability_engineering_library/MIL-STD-883H_Test_Method_Standard_Microcircuits_26_Feb_2010/MIL-STD-883H_Test_Method_Standard_Microcircuits_26_Feb_2010_pp_104.pdf http://reliabilityanalytics.com/reliability_engineering_libr...
alkonaut 9y ago
If I can buy a 1080 for $100 when they flood ebay, I'm willing to take my chances.

fermienrico 9y ago

What is the basis for an overwhelming assumption on HN that Cryto will crash? I am genuinely curious. What specifics indicate that it will crash?

bby 9y ago
market being propped up by tether
richardknop 9y ago
Most people here are engineers and can see through the buzz words all these crypto tokens are throwing around to lure in naive investors. So it's assumed that it is a bubble as majority of tokens are worthless from technical perspective.
ufo 9y ago
In the short term I think we may see Bitfinex/Tether blow up pretty soon. Just this last week they printed around $500M in fake money to keep bitcoin prices from falling.
alkonaut 9y ago
It doesn't have to crash. It just has to be uneconomic to mine on GPU's. For example by becoming too hard, or by switching to proof-of-stake. The question is rather whether there is another coin that will take over the workload of the rigs (I know too little about cryptocurrencies to know whether another coin will have the same properties as ether, i.e. be economic to mine on GPUs).
IkmoIkmo 9y ago
It's basically as if there were 300 new social media networks all popping up within 1 year, and 99% of them were clones of an open-source social media github, with a few minor alterations and a ton of marketing fluff, with perhaps 2-3 social media networks (Facebook, Instagram, Reddit) commanding 90% of the market. There's just no utility behind all these coins. Hell, there aren't even any significant amount of bitcoin users, let alone Ethereum or Ripple, or any of the ridiculous coins. They're all presenting themselves as interesting for their utility, but are valued as an extremely short-term store of value play. It just can't last. Lastly, note that there's only 3 cryptos that have a market cap of at least 10% of that of Bitcoin, and one is Bitcoin Cash so it doesn't count. The other are Ripple and Ethereum. Ripple has proof of stake (i.e., no mining is necessary) and Ethereum is expected to go proof of stake in the next hard fork, likely this year. Just to put that into perspective. Nvidia's revenues are about $7b a year, AMD about 4 billion, let's say together 12b. They command pretty much 100% of the discrete GPU market, with Intel being the major integrated market player that is irrelevant in this context. Then look at https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption for an idea about mining revenues. It's about $14b a year, and electricity costs estimate the after-electricity profits at about $12b a year. Now you'd expect that a miner who can make $12 by turning on a device (with its electricity already paid for), is willing to pay anywhere between $0 and $12, and that with enough competition, they'll spend close to $12. That gives you a rough idea about how significant Ethereum is as a player, with Bitcoin running on Asics and Ripple already at Proof of Stake, and most other coins being quite insignificant (and also a combination of Proof of Stake or Asics based like Litecoin, anyway). So in short: I think cryptos will crash and even if a lot of them remain, I argue a lot of this price pressure is due to the few big coins of which only ethereum has viable GPU mining and that'll end in 2018.