Exactly, it's overconfidence that gets customers, bettors, investors, etc., into real trouble. Car salesmen who last at their jobs have been through the wringe

Exactly, it's overconfidence that gets customers, bettors, investors, etc., into real trouble. Car salesmen who last at their jobs have been through the wringer with every stripe of hostile customer, and they ain't dumb, although seeming dumb may be part of the game.