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Intel stock is down ~10% and AMD up ~10% since end of December. I'm not even sure why people are saying the stock market thinks it's not a problem. The stock ma

by sambe 9y ago

Intel stock is down ~10% and AMD up ~10% since end of December. I'm not even sure why people are saying the stock market thinks it's not a problem. The stock market represents a weighted average of possible futures and it has priced in some damage. Is the idea that Intel should instantly drop 90%?

avar 9y ago
As I write this Intel stock is around $44, up from $41 last October, and that $41 is at an almost 18-year high, it hasn't been this high since the Dot-com bubble. Look at the longer term graph[1]. Similar story for AMD[2] except it's at an all time high since 2007-ish. The reason people are saying Intel stock isn't down is because of that, when what HN considers the worst thing ever is indistinguishable from fluctuations for the last 3 months the market doesn't think it's a big deal. 1. https://www.google.com/search?q=intel+stock https://www.google.com/search?q=intel+stock 2. https://www.google.com/search?q=amd+stock https://www.google.com/search?q=amd+stock
- sambe 9y ago
  This didn’t become public last October.
  - avar 9y ago
    Well yes, that's the point.
    - sambe 9y ago
      The point is that it's up from an arbitrary historical value? It's down since the story broke - that's the point.
      - sdhgaiojfsa 9y ago
        It's down from 47 to 45, and it's almost impossible to attribute this to these bugs with any reliability. Yes, there was some initial panic in the first days after the bug. You can see this in the volume the day after it was announced. But things have largely recovered since the low midway through this month. Of course, the stock market by no means knows everything. But the aggregate prediction of traders is that this doesn't matter very much to the bottom line, and I tend to agree.
paulie_a 9y ago
To be fair AMD stock has a a fairly volatile history. I have traded it over the last fifteen years and my only thought is: Wall Street has a vendetta against AMD. For example a while back amd announced in an earnings call: we are in the black and reduced out debt subtantially. The stock tanks by 15-20 percent
- megablast 9y ago
  They just means they were expecting a bigger profit.

by sambe 9y ago

avar 9y ago

As I write this Intel stock is around $44, up from $41 last October, and that $41 is at an almost 18-year high, it hasn't been this high since the Dot-com bubble. Look at the longer term graph[1]. Similar story for AMD[2] except it's at an all time high since 2007-ish. The reason people are saying Intel stock isn't down is because of that, when what HN considers the worst thing ever is indistinguishable from fluctuations for the last 3 months the market doesn't think it's a big deal. 1. https://www.google.com/search?q=intel+stock https://www.google.com/search?q=intel+stock 2. https://www.google.com/search?q=amd+stock https://www.google.com/search?q=amd+stock

sambe 9y ago
This didn’t become public last October.
- avar 9y ago
  Well yes, that's the point.
  - sambe 9y ago
    The point is that it's up from an arbitrary historical value? It's down since the story broke - that's the point.
    - sdhgaiojfsa 9y ago
      It's down from 47 to 45, and it's almost impossible to attribute this to these bugs with any reliability. Yes, there was some initial panic in the first days after the bug. You can see this in the volume the day after it was announced. But things have largely recovered since the low midway through this month. Of course, the stock market by no means knows everything. But the aggregate prediction of traders is that this doesn't matter very much to the bottom line, and I tend to agree.

paulie_a 9y ago

To be fair AMD stock has a a fairly volatile history. I have traded it over the last fifteen years and my only thought is: Wall Street has a vendetta against AMD. For example a while back amd announced in an earnings call: we are in the black and reduced out debt subtantially. The stock tanks by 15-20 percent

megablast 9y ago
They just means they were expecting a bigger profit.