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According to the article he's putting away 1000 pounds, or about $1400 per month. Let's imagine he puts all his money into an index fund and they continue hitti

According to the article he's putting away 1000 pounds, or about $1400 per month. Let's imagine he puts all his money into an index fund and they continue hitting about 8%. He's a millionaire before his 40th birthday, if he started when he was 18. And that's if he never receives a raise or finds a better paying job. And at that point he's pulling in $80k a year in growth/interest alone. That's not an easy 22 years, but on the other hand that this sort of life outcome for somebody who's job is basically moving boxes is possible seems like huge success of our economic system. And that's in the worst case scenario of him never finding more productive work.

zenlikethat 9y ago
Except that he needs to pay to, y'know, eat and have a place to live and all that other life stuff. I'm assuming he doesn't want to live with his parents forever, even if they're cutting him a deal. 8% is likely an unrealistic growth rate anyway.
- indubitable 9y ago
  The $1400 was after he paid for eating/shelter. He's paying his parents $280 for rent - something he could do similarly by hooking up with some roommates. It's not glorious, yet he has the ability within his grasp to have an economic state of life that I suspect north of 90% of 40 year olds would trade their lives for. For a man who moves boxes for a living! Here [1] is a calculator for investment fund returns. They're quite insane. Pick the absolute worst period for returns bust to bust 2000 to 2010 and you're still looking at a positive return. 1990 to present and you're looking at 10%. 2000 to present, going through both busts, is 6%. 2010 to present is 14%. 8% is not unreasonable - let's say it accounts for him possibly getting a raise sometime in the next 22 years. [1] - https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
  - zenlikethat 9y ago
    So just live with your parents for 20 years, hope the market goes well, and you'll be a millionaire? Looking at postings around the area where the worker lives, an apartment is about 4x the cost of what's he's paying for both rent AND food (https://essex.craigslist.co.uk/d/flats-housing-for-rent/search/apa https://essex.craigslist.co.uk/d/flats-housing-for-rent/sear...). That's not even accounting for unexpected medical expenses, trying to start a family, etc., and all the other expensive stuff in life. I'm not even all that sympathetic to the worker in the article, but "just park all of your money in an index fund and you'll be a millionaire" is quite naive.
    - indubitable 9y ago
      Check AirBNB. And keep in mind those prices can generally be negotiated sharply downward for longterm stays. He also need not continue to reside in one of the most expensive [housing] areas in Britain and the world for that matter. Healthcare in the UK can be provided for by entirely public systems. If he wanted to start a family he's just doubled his income and we can reduce the timelines involved in success here by at least ~30% (less than half due to compound interest being the secret sauce here + he obviously also increases his expenses in often nonlinear ways) -- even moreso if he finds a partner who has a more sophisticated skillset than moving boxes. I think the thing many don't see is that in spite of people continuing to fail at life we live at a time when it's far easier than ever to succeed. But most people won't do the ideas espoused here since it requires discipline and planning. Instead they go drop their paycheck off at the pub, buy all the latest electronic toys with built in planned obsolescence, and so on. Or he finally hits $20k in the bank and then decides to go blow it on holiday to Asia.

zenlikethat 9y ago

Except that he needs to pay to, y'know, eat and have a place to live and all that other life stuff. I'm assuming he doesn't want to live with his parents forever, even if they're cutting him a deal. 8% is likely an unrealistic growth rate anyway.

indubitable 9y ago
The $1400 was after he paid for eating/shelter. He's paying his parents $280 for rent - something he could do similarly by hooking up with some roommates. It's not glorious, yet he has the ability within his grasp to have an economic state of life that I suspect north of 90% of 40 year olds would trade their lives for. For a man who moves boxes for a living! Here [1] is a calculator for investment fund returns. They're quite insane. Pick the absolute worst period for returns bust to bust 2000 to 2010 and you're still looking at a positive return. 1990 to present and you're looking at 10%. 2000 to present, going through both busts, is 6%. 2010 to present is 14%. 8% is not unreasonable - let's say it accounts for him possibly getting a raise sometime in the next 22 years. [1] - https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
- zenlikethat 9y ago
  So just live with your parents for 20 years, hope the market goes well, and you'll be a millionaire? Looking at postings around the area where the worker lives, an apartment is about 4x the cost of what's he's paying for both rent AND food (https://essex.craigslist.co.uk/d/flats-housing-for-rent/search/apa https://essex.craigslist.co.uk/d/flats-housing-for-rent/sear...). That's not even accounting for unexpected medical expenses, trying to start a family, etc., and all the other expensive stuff in life. I'm not even all that sympathetic to the worker in the article, but "just park all of your money in an index fund and you'll be a millionaire" is quite naive.
  - indubitable 9y ago
    Check AirBNB. And keep in mind those prices can generally be negotiated sharply downward for longterm stays. He also need not continue to reside in one of the most expensive [housing] areas in Britain and the world for that matter. Healthcare in the UK can be provided for by entirely public systems. If he wanted to start a family he's just doubled his income and we can reduce the timelines involved in success here by at least ~30% (less than half due to compound interest being the secret sauce here + he obviously also increases his expenses in often nonlinear ways) -- even moreso if he finds a partner who has a more sophisticated skillset than moving boxes. I think the thing many don't see is that in spite of people continuing to fail at life we live at a time when it's far easier than ever to succeed. But most people won't do the ideas espoused here since it requires discipline and planning. Instead they go drop their paycheck off at the pub, buy all the latest electronic toys with built in planned obsolescence, and so on. Or he finally hits $20k in the bank and then decides to go blow it on holiday to Asia.