5 ms·

So if I have an idea that I think people want, how do I figure out whether my assumptions are correct? Short of actually making the thing.

by dom96 9y ago

harlanji 9y ago
Watch Netflix. :) kidding, I go with actions are louder than words. Make something, send it into the world. The thing need only attract the people you wanna talk to (ie. get money from or proxies).
- karimdag 9y ago
  I don't know why you were downvoted. I am of the same opinion for when it comes to humans, action speaks louder than words.
Strom 9y ago
You talk to a bunch of people and ask them if they would be willing to pay right now. Better if you don't mention that it's not available until they agree to pay. It's sort of a funnel: people you think want it > people who actually want it for free > people who can see themselves wanting it if someone else pays (i.e. future them could pay) > people who are actually willing to pay themselves.
- advertising 9y ago
  ^^^^ This funnel is great
- zachsnow 9y ago
  > people who can see themselves wanting it if someone else pays (i.e. future them could pay) Great way to make this point! So when you ask someone "would you pay for it?" you are really asking "would you use it if someone else paid for it?" Which, really, doesn't tell you very much at all.
- Guest9812398 9y ago
  Keep in mind you'll get a lot of false positives. This is one of the biggest mistakes I always did when validating ideas. I would ask people (and myself), would you use or pay for product X? People would say yes, I would develop it, and then no one would use it. I realized you need to ask a follow-up question. Would you use or pay for product X? If yes, then why are you not using similar services Y and Z that already exist? If it's truly a good idea, then they already know about Y and Z, because they've been searching for a solution to their problem. They might be paying for one of those existing inferior services too, because they need this problem solved, and they're the only options available. That would be great news. It's bad news when they don't know anything about the existing services. As a simple example, you could ask pet owners if they would use a social network for pets, where they register their pet, post entertaining photos of their pet, follow other pets, etc. Basically, Facebook where all the profiles and posts are from animals. You'll get a bunch of yes answers from pet owners, which sounds very promising, and you might start on development. As I said, this is a mistake. If you search on Google, you'll find lots of existing pet social networks. So, ask those same people, if they said yes, why don't they visit Google today, and register on one of those other 10 sites? Why didn't they sign-up on one last month? Usually, once they find out the idea exists (or you develop it), they realize they don't care for, or need the service as much as they originally thought. As another example, I might want to develop a HN theme with bigger voting icons, larger text and links for improved readability, etc. When I ask myself, I answer yes, it's all positives, and I want and would use this theme. But then I ask, why have I never used any existing HN themes from other users? When did I last search for HN themes, because one probably exists today with some of the features on my list. I then realize that I don't care that much about a theme after all, and I actually prefer running sites as they're originally designed, without third-party themes or add-ons, even if they do add a few beneficial features.
  - jonex 9y ago
    This was a pretty clever idea. I haven't heard about it before. It gets some of the benefits from making an MVP in a really cheap way.
sulam 9y ago
First of all, read Lean Startup by Eric Ries. That will get you started if you actually do it. Secondly, the specific technique that might work in your case is to invest a trivial amount of money using ad words or some other advertising vehicle to produce an ad for your non-existent product. Have a landing page for the ad that describes the product. Harvest email addresses of people who are interested in applying for access to your "beta" on that page. That will help you gauge whether or not people are actively looking for a solution to the problem you think you could solve. Expect to iterate.
advertising 9y ago
This is some classic advice: you don't know until people buy it, which means you have to make some version of it to find out. Talk with people to develop the idea as far as you can, but you don't truly know until people pay you. So you have to deliver a product (unless you're lucky enough to get pre-sales but even then you've likely invested something in a prototype) which is that point your stomachs tightens up as it requires some amount of money to develop this product. Aka the moment you find out if you really believe in this idea, enough to risk it. Whether it's server costs, building a physical prototype, buying a data set, whatever it is. Someone buys it, cool. Then don't spend anymore money until you've repeated the sale several times to validate you didn't just find this one unique customer. A few would-be entrepreneurs have asked me for advice (though I'm not sure why) and are looking for that whole reverse prescription to success through how other people did it, which is a fallacy - there's only your path. I've noticed that they were stuck in this idea phase and it always came down to that moment of putting your money where your mouth is. I would just tell them either you believe in your idea enough to pay the $5,000 to fabricate the metal for your prototype, or $500 for the up-to-date information for your real estate developer app, or whatever the thing is that is your next step, or you don't because you don't really believe in the idea enough to take the risk. Which is fine, just recognize that and keep searching.
- aytekin 9y ago
  “prescription to success through how other people did it, which is a fallacy - there's only your path” I’d like to provide a counter example to this. Reading Eric Ries’ blog in 2009* made a big difference for my company. Changing the way we worked changed our trajectory. * http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/ http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/
  - advertising 9y ago
    I suppose I should say when talking about starting a business from scratch, less so operating one :)

So if I have an idea that I think people want, how do I figure out whether my assumptions are correct? Short of actually making the thing.

by dom96 9y ago

So if I have an idea that I think people want, how do I figure out whether my assumptions are correct? Short of actually making the thing.

harlanji 9y ago

Watch Netflix. :) kidding, I go with actions are louder than words. Make something, send it into the world. The thing need only attract the people you wanna talk to (ie. get money from or proxies).

karimdag 9y ago
I don't know why you were downvoted. I am of the same opinion for when it comes to humans, action speaks louder than words.

Strom 9y ago

You talk to a bunch of people and ask them if they would be willing to pay right now. Better if you don't mention that it's not available until they agree to pay. It's sort of a funnel: people you think want it > people who actually want it for free > people who can see themselves wanting it if someone else pays (i.e. future them could pay) > people who are actually willing to pay themselves.

advertising 9y ago
^^^^ This funnel is great
zachsnow 9y ago
> people who can see themselves wanting it if someone else pays (i.e. future them could pay) Great way to make this point! So when you ask someone "would you pay for it?" you are really asking "would you use it if someone else paid for it?" Which, really, doesn't tell you very much at all.
Guest9812398 9y ago
Keep in mind you'll get a lot of false positives. This is one of the biggest mistakes I always did when validating ideas. I would ask people (and myself), would you use or pay for product X? People would say yes, I would develop it, and then no one would use it. I realized you need to ask a follow-up question. Would you use or pay for product X? If yes, then why are you not using similar services Y and Z that already exist? If it's truly a good idea, then they already know about Y and Z, because they've been searching for a solution to their problem. They might be paying for one of those existing inferior services too, because they need this problem solved, and they're the only options available. That would be great news. It's bad news when they don't know anything about the existing services. As a simple example, you could ask pet owners if they would use a social network for pets, where they register their pet, post entertaining photos of their pet, follow other pets, etc. Basically, Facebook where all the profiles and posts are from animals. You'll get a bunch of yes answers from pet owners, which sounds very promising, and you might start on development. As I said, this is a mistake. If you search on Google, you'll find lots of existing pet social networks. So, ask those same people, if they said yes, why don't they visit Google today, and register on one of those other 10 sites? Why didn't they sign-up on one last month? Usually, once they find out the idea exists (or you develop it), they realize they don't care for, or need the service as much as they originally thought. As another example, I might want to develop a HN theme with bigger voting icons, larger text and links for improved readability, etc. When I ask myself, I answer yes, it's all positives, and I want and would use this theme. But then I ask, why have I never used any existing HN themes from other users? When did I last search for HN themes, because one probably exists today with some of the features on my list. I then realize that I don't care that much about a theme after all, and I actually prefer running sites as they're originally designed, without third-party themes or add-ons, even if they do add a few beneficial features.
- jonex 9y ago
  This was a pretty clever idea. I haven't heard about it before. It gets some of the benefits from making an MVP in a really cheap way.

sulam 9y ago

First of all, read Lean Startup by Eric Ries. That will get you started if you actually do it. Secondly, the specific technique that might work in your case is to invest a trivial amount of money using ad words or some other advertising vehicle to produce an ad for your non-existent product. Have a landing page for the ad that describes the product. Harvest email addresses of people who are interested in applying for access to your "beta" on that page. That will help you gauge whether or not people are actively looking for a solution to the problem you think you could solve. Expect to iterate.

advertising 9y ago

This is some classic advice: you don't know until people buy it, which means you have to make some version of it to find out. Talk with people to develop the idea as far as you can, but you don't truly know until people pay you. So you have to deliver a product (unless you're lucky enough to get pre-sales but even then you've likely invested something in a prototype) which is that point your stomachs tightens up as it requires some amount of money to develop this product. Aka the moment you find out if you really believe in this idea, enough to risk it. Whether it's server costs, building a physical prototype, buying a data set, whatever it is. Someone buys it, cool. Then don't spend anymore money until you've repeated the sale several times to validate you didn't just find this one unique customer. A few would-be entrepreneurs have asked me for advice (though I'm not sure why) and are looking for that whole reverse prescription to success through how other people did it, which is a fallacy - there's only your path. I've noticed that they were stuck in this idea phase and it always came down to that moment of putting your money where your mouth is. I would just tell them either you believe in your idea enough to pay the $5,000 to fabricate the metal for your prototype, or $500 for the up-to-date information for your real estate developer app, or whatever the thing is that is your next step, or you don't because you don't really believe in the idea enough to take the risk. Which is fine, just recognize that and keep searching.

aytekin 9y ago
“prescription to success through how other people did it, which is a fallacy - there's only your path” I’d like to provide a counter example to this. Reading Eric Ries’ blog in 2009* made a big difference for my company. Changing the way we worked changed our trajectory. * http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/ http://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/
- advertising 9y ago
  I suppose I should say when talking about starting a business from scratch, less so operating one :)