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It’s only a model. The housing market crash and the 2016 election show how wrong models can be, even if all the inputs and the formula make sense. They could b
by rm_-rf_slash 9y ago
It’s only a model. The housing market crash and the 2016 election show how wrong models can be, even if all the inputs and the formula make sense.
They could be off by a factor of ten. In the wrong direction. We won’t know until it’s time.
- ggg9990 9y agoThe housing market formulas did not make sense. They assumed that default probabilities were uncorrelated.