4 ms·

One stock analyst says Tesla will fail like Internet groceries

3 points by da5e 16y ago

brg 16y ago
I wonder how correlated Tesla stock price will be with gasoline prices. I could see a steep rise in P/E as a result of a spike in fuel prices or a short term supply disruption. It is too soon to gather interesting data as fuel prices haven't had a seasonal change since the IPO, but I'll keep this in the stack of "things that would be good to check."
skowmunk 16y ago
Elon musk may lose a lot of money if he doesn't sell off soon. He seems to be thinking the IT/Tech model of something new giving a dominating advantage will work in the automotive market. But, I don't think that model is so easily transferable to the auto industry. There are lots of other things that are required to make it successful in the car market. Either they need to be 1) super exotic like Pagani or McLaren ( many other super exotics couldn't survive on their own either - Ferrari, Lambo, Bugatti, Lotus) or 2) have massive multiple advantages like economies of scale, manufacturing excellence, marketing and distribution clout, supplier clout, high technology that can be produced at high quality and with margins. Tesla was super exotic when it started off(not in looks though). Too bad for him there is massive interest in this field and every major company, not to mention many Chinese companies are entering into this field. Day by day, Tesla's is losing its "exotic" tag. I still get a chuckle thinking about this, 4 years ago Carlos Ghosn of Nissan/Renault was lambasting electrics/Hybrids. Now they have the Leaf almost ready for sale. And Tesla does not have and cannot gain the other advantages fast enough to give themselves a sustainable advantage. All the giants, Toyota, MB, etc can put in as much as Tesla overall spending, on just developing this technology each year, leverage their other advantages and get a car out cheaper, faster and better quality the moment there is a sustainable market. And they are already doing it. Imho, Tesla is just dishing out free marketing for these other companies.

3 points by da5e 16y ago

brg 16y ago

I wonder how correlated Tesla stock price will be with gasoline prices. I could see a steep rise in P/E as a result of a spike in fuel prices or a short term supply disruption. It is too soon to gather interesting data as fuel prices haven't had a seasonal change since the IPO, but I'll keep this in the stack of "things that would be good to check."

skowmunk 16y ago

Elon musk may lose a lot of money if he doesn't sell off soon. He seems to be thinking the IT/Tech model of something new giving a dominating advantage will work in the automotive market. But, I don't think that model is so easily transferable to the auto industry. There are lots of other things that are required to make it successful in the car market. Either they need to be 1) super exotic like Pagani or McLaren ( many other super exotics couldn't survive on their own either - Ferrari, Lambo, Bugatti, Lotus) or 2) have massive multiple advantages like economies of scale, manufacturing excellence, marketing and distribution clout, supplier clout, high technology that can be produced at high quality and with margins. Tesla was super exotic when it started off(not in looks though). Too bad for him there is massive interest in this field and every major company, not to mention many Chinese companies are entering into this field. Day by day, Tesla's is losing its "exotic" tag. I still get a chuckle thinking about this, 4 years ago Carlos Ghosn of Nissan/Renault was lambasting electrics/Hybrids. Now they have the Leaf almost ready for sale. And Tesla does not have and cannot gain the other advantages fast enough to give themselves a sustainable advantage. All the giants, Toyota, MB, etc can put in as much as Tesla overall spending, on just developing this technology each year, leverage their other advantages and get a car out cheaper, faster and better quality the moment there is a sustainable market. And they are already doing it. Imho, Tesla is just dishing out free marketing for these other companies.