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>Once cryptos are roped off from money laundering, we’ll see the prices fall back down to Silk Road levels because black markets were and seem likely to remain

>Once cryptos are roped off from money laundering, we’ll see the prices fall back down to Silk Road levels because black markets were and seem likely to remain their sole utility for some time. Hmm, I think you might doubt the amount of true believers out there. Many bitcoin investors seem to be in a mindset where anything that happens is 'good for bitcoin.' Dips are good, high prices are good, volatility is good, lack of regulation is good, no wait regulation is happening? Actually regulation is good. Since bitcoin requires you to up the stakes and put money in the pot but also has no fundamentals there is a kind of concentrated effect we see on facebook and other social networks where you're massively incentivized to enter a thought bubble and only read good news about bitcoin.

ordinaryradical 9y ago
You could be right. But from what I’ve read there’s a very small number of large owners who are almost certainly manipulating the market to enrich themselves while the vast majority have such tiny stakes as to be utterly insignificant in the scheme of things. Once the botting and laundering is unachievable, there may not be much of a game left for these players and I think all it will take is one or two deciding the jig is up to tank the market permanently. I think the libertarian ideologues will probably keep holding even if the music stops, but that won’t be enough to sustain any of this growth. Read up on Spoofy and Picasso if you want to get a sense of some of the shenanigans going on here. This crescendo of growth is largely artificial, not even speculative in nature.
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> I think you might doubt the amount of true believers out there If you've experienced a proper run on an illiquid asset, you'll remember that the true believers never stop believing. People just stop lending to them.
DenisM 9y ago
> a kind of concentrated effect we see on facebook and other social networks where you're massively incentivized to enter a thought bubble and only read good news about bitcoin Very astute observation. Imagine Ponzi days (or Mavrodi days) fueled by Facebook?

ordinaryradical 9y ago

You could be right. But from what I’ve read there’s a very small number of large owners who are almost certainly manipulating the market to enrich themselves while the vast majority have such tiny stakes as to be utterly insignificant in the scheme of things. Once the botting and laundering is unachievable, there may not be much of a game left for these players and I think all it will take is one or two deciding the jig is up to tank the market permanently. I think the libertarian ideologues will probably keep holding even if the music stops, but that won’t be enough to sustain any of this growth. Read up on Spoofy and Picasso if you want to get a sense of some of the shenanigans going on here. This crescendo of growth is largely artificial, not even speculative in nature.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> I think you might doubt the amount of true believers out there If you've experienced a proper run on an illiquid asset, you'll remember that the true believers never stop believing. People just stop lending to them.

DenisM 9y ago

> a kind of concentrated effect we see on facebook and other social networks where you're massively incentivized to enter a thought bubble and only read good news about bitcoin Very astute observation. Imagine Ponzi days (or Mavrodi days) fueled by Facebook?