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https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/7rad7q/a_reminder_every_time_that_tether_starts_a/dsvghqm/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/7rad7q/a_remind

by chx 9y ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/7rad7q/a_reminder_every_time_that_tether_starts_a/dsvghqm/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/7rad7q/a_reminder... > What if the crypto community is simply too stupid to ever let the bubble burst? > Like. Literally nobody has ever been able to trade their tethers back into dollars, and they've been around for over a year at this point. How the fuck do people have imaginary money and simply not want to get real money from it, not even once, in over a year? > Maybe the buttcoiners were right, and we are witnessing the birth of something completely new here: The market that was too dumb to even realise that it should crash.

goldenkey 9y ago
"We are backed by US dollars." "Can I redeem my Tether for them?" "No." "Can I get some proof?" "No." "Uhm..yeah..hmm..ehhhhh"
gfodor 9y ago
I've felt for a while that the main thing to ask yourself wrt crypto speculation is when does a pessimistic narrative dominate an optimistic narrative. I've argued that crypto, being software based, is inherently optimistic since any present day deficiencies can arguably fixed with "more code." This doesn't have to be true it just needs to be convincing enough to generate enough demand for the next wave of speculators. In the limit, either the concept is fundamentally flawed or it will inductively work after many iterations and rollovers to new models/coins/etc. But if it's flawed that could be a long time before the market collectively throws its hands up and says "there is no hope for this ever working" and drives the price to literally zero -- I mean, what would the catalyst be? In short term periods, market momentum can drive sentiment, but in longer periods there needs to be some kind of pure capitulation event that causes the market to resolve that crypto is doomed. Your guess is as good as mine as to what that is -- the long term trend seems to be that the last generation of holders cash out, causing a price drop, and new optimists pile in, driving the price higher than previous highs, sometimes in the form of new systems like ether or ICOs. It's hard to imagine what will break this cycle. Maybe the crypto engineering community tries a bunch of stuff and "these X problems cannot be solved in less than Y" years enters the crypto engineering zeiguist?
marcoperaza 9y ago
There’s a classic piece of wisdom about such situations: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Maarten88 9y ago
If these tethers turn out to be impossible to trade for dollars, then the best way of getting out of them would be buying BTC, right? Fun times...
- matthewbauer 9y ago
  Yeah which is going to cause the next crash as more and more people cash out via Bitcoin.
- ActsJuvenile 9y ago
  That would cause high prices on Bitfinex due to Bitcoin buying, while deflating prices on Coinbase and Gemini due to cash outs. During the last month of MtGox it was common to see $2,000 price gap between Gox and US exchanges. I have a feeling history is going to repeat itself very soon.
stcredzero 9y ago
we are witnessing the birth of something completely new here: The market that was too dumb to even realise that it should crash. It's not so completely new. There was this old Warner Bros. cartoon trope about characters floating in defiance of the law of gravity, because they, "never studied law." (Though, perhaps Wile E. Coyote running halfway across the rift before he realizes he should fall might be more apt.)
ActsJuvenile 9y ago
The traders are not likely to withdraw anything unless Crypto prices start crashing downwards. That would explain why Tether is so desperate to prop up the price and avoid withdrawals.

by chx 9y ago

goldenkey 9y ago

"We are backed by US dollars." "Can I redeem my Tether for them?" "No." "Can I get some proof?" "No." "Uhm..yeah..hmm..ehhhhh"

gfodor 9y ago

I've felt for a while that the main thing to ask yourself wrt crypto speculation is when does a pessimistic narrative dominate an optimistic narrative. I've argued that crypto, being software based, is inherently optimistic since any present day deficiencies can arguably fixed with "more code." This doesn't have to be true it just needs to be convincing enough to generate enough demand for the next wave of speculators. In the limit, either the concept is fundamentally flawed or it will inductively work after many iterations and rollovers to new models/coins/etc. But if it's flawed that could be a long time before the market collectively throws its hands up and says "there is no hope for this ever working" and drives the price to literally zero -- I mean, what would the catalyst be? In short term periods, market momentum can drive sentiment, but in longer periods there needs to be some kind of pure capitulation event that causes the market to resolve that crypto is doomed. Your guess is as good as mine as to what that is -- the long term trend seems to be that the last generation of holders cash out, causing a price drop, and new optimists pile in, driving the price higher than previous highs, sometimes in the form of new systems like ether or ICOs. It's hard to imagine what will break this cycle. Maybe the crypto engineering community tries a bunch of stuff and "these X problems cannot be solved in less than Y" years enters the crypto engineering zeiguist?

marcoperaza 9y ago

There’s a classic piece of wisdom about such situations: “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Maarten88 9y ago

If these tethers turn out to be impossible to trade for dollars, then the best way of getting out of them would be buying BTC, right? Fun times...

matthewbauer 9y ago
Yeah which is going to cause the next crash as more and more people cash out via Bitcoin.
ActsJuvenile 9y ago
That would cause high prices on Bitfinex due to Bitcoin buying, while deflating prices on Coinbase and Gemini due to cash outs. During the last month of MtGox it was common to see $2,000 price gap between Gox and US exchanges. I have a feeling history is going to repeat itself very soon.

stcredzero 9y ago

we are witnessing the birth of something completely new here: The market that was too dumb to even realise that it should crash. It's not so completely new. There was this old Warner Bros. cartoon trope about characters floating in defiance of the law of gravity, because they, "never studied law." (Though, perhaps Wile E. Coyote running halfway across the rift before he realizes he should fall might be more apt.)

ActsJuvenile 9y ago

The traders are not likely to withdraw anything unless Crypto prices start crashing downwards. That would explain why Tether is so desperate to prop up the price and avoid withdrawals.