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Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japa

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

pwaai 9y ago
China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.
- jbrun 9y ago
  Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.
  - pwaai 9y ago
    I'm sure many Japanese would disagree given the high rate of suicides and low reporting of happiness. Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.
- vfulco 9y ago
  The difference with China is as a Communist state, they can make the debt disappear into some bad bank in an instant. One year debt becomes thirty year debt to be worked out long after the officials are gone. There is no downside to them and who in the global investment community will hold them accountable? No one.
  - pwaai 9y ago
    the future Chinese generation will pay the burden. Debt simply doesn't go away on it's own, it can only be kicked further down the road until you can't. it's foolish to believe that China is somehow immune from economic downturns because it's a communist state. USSR would like a word with you....
taobility 9y ago
The same opinion repeated by lots of western economists every year, so you are not the first one. China's economy and culture is different, which lots of western couldn't understand, but still try to use western prospect to interpret it. Like asset bubble, the western don't know the mortgage in China is at least 20% for first property, and the second one would be 50% or even higher. And also in Chinese culture, most people would not get finance for the vehicle, and the saving rate is significant higher than US.

pwaai 9y ago

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth... In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom. tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country. The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.

jbrun 9y ago
Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.
- pwaai 9y ago
  I'm sure many Japanese would disagree given the high rate of suicides and low reporting of happiness. Sorry should've been more specific with my terms, debt levels that exceed assets has proven to be toxic in Japan, Korea, Ireland, Greece.
vfulco 9y ago
The difference with China is as a Communist state, they can make the debt disappear into some bad bank in an instant. One year debt becomes thirty year debt to be worked out long after the officials are gone. There is no downside to them and who in the global investment community will hold them accountable? No one.
- pwaai 9y ago
  the future Chinese generation will pay the burden. Debt simply doesn't go away on it's own, it can only be kicked further down the road until you can't. it's foolish to believe that China is somehow immune from economic downturns because it's a communist state. USSR would like a word with you....

taobility 9y ago

The same opinion repeated by lots of western economists every year, so you are not the first one. China's economy and culture is different, which lots of western couldn't understand, but still try to use western prospect to interpret it. Like asset bubble, the western don't know the mortgage in China is at least 20% for first property, and the second one would be 50% or even higher. And also in Chinese culture, most people would not get finance for the vehicle, and the saving rate is significant higher than US.