6 ms·

I have said it before, and will say it again: I do not understand why the assumption is that fully self-driving cars will eliminate individual car ownership. W

I have said it before, and will say it again: I do not understand why the assumption is that fully self-driving cars will eliminate individual car ownership. What are the practical reasons to own one now, and why will they be rendered irrelevant by AI drivers?

croon 9y ago
If I don't want to own one now, I have to get to some place where they rent out cars, get it, do my thing and get it back there again, and then back home. For me this takes about ~30 minutes door to door each direction, even though I live "in the city". In a self driving scenario I use an app and it shows up at my door, and likely much quicker, and then it drives itself off after I'm done.
- vonmoltke 9y ago
  You can already do this now via Uber, Lyft, or a similar service. Other than making such a service somewhat cheaper, what fundamentally changes?
  - croon 9y ago
    > You can already do this now via Uber, Lyft, or a similar service. This is heavily location dependent, as smaller cities and even countries don't have these services. And as you said, much more expensive than a driverless car. Also having the car wait for me during errands would cost a lot more if there's a driver sitting in it during.
bunderbunder 9y ago
Assuming that most of the cost of taxi and rideshare service comes down to paying the driver, I'm expecting that fully self-driving cars will allow the price of such things to drop precipitously. I expect that it will easily be enough of a price drop to make taxis the cheaper option for many people. It may also change the practicalities in ways that drastically alter the nature of the service. With no driver to worry about keeping happy, it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere, waiting maybe hours or even a day or two for the next ride. That makes using taxis to do things like go on a camping trip, or haul yourself out to your parents' house back on the farm, something that makes sense.
- vonmoltke 9y ago
  > Assuming that most of the cost of taxi and rideshare service comes down to paying the driver From the data I have seen from the New York Taxi and Limousine Commission, this is not a good assumption. > I'm expecting that fully self-driving cars will allow the price of such things to drop precipitously. I expect that it will easily be enough of a price drop to make taxis the cheaper option for many people. While self-driving capability will definitely make taxi service cheaper (even if I think you overestimate the size of the drop), cost is not the only driver. I would not switch entirely to such a service because I want the convenience of having a vehicle available as soon as I want or need it, and the ability to leave things in the vehicle for extended periods or just in case I need them. The rest of my family would have similar issues. > It may also change the practicalities in ways that drastically alter the nature of the service. With no driver to worry about keeping happy, it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere, waiting maybe hours or even a day or two for the next ride. That makes using taxis to do things like go on a camping trip, or haul yourself out to your parents' house back on the farm, something that makes sense. I don't see how this is any different than a car rental service now, other than removing the pick-up and drop-off portions. So I still don't see how self-driving capability fundamentally changes anything.
  - bunderbunder 9y ago
    Can you explain where else the cost comes from? I'm thinking here that if a taxi driver's earning, say, $35,000 per year, and you can have two drivers working a shift per car, per day, then your labor costs for operating a cab are $70,000 year per car. Assume a car drives ~100k miles per year, gets 25mpg, and gas costs $4/gal. That's $16,000 for gas. How much do the cars cost, and how much maintenance do they need?
- HeyLaughingBoy 9y ago
  The problem is that everyone who answers this question focuses on price while completely ignoring latency. Every morning at 6:30, I drive my son to the school bus stop about half a mile away. I do this in part to make sure he makes it there on time, and also because it's often well below 0F at that time of day. So, even if it costs $1 to get an Uber to do that, it would have to show up within a 3 minute window (time between when his morning chores are done and we have to leave), and it would have to wait 5-10 minutes for the bus to show up, since he doesn't want to stand around when it's -10F and blowing 20+ MPH. That's not a normal behavior for a taxi-type service. This daily trip and my morning/evening commutes are the only scheduled vehicle uses we have. Every other use is unplanned and random. The nearest grocery store is 10 miles away. Now I have to plan my trips or wait for a car to get here, take me there, and then wait for another one to pick me up? Oh, I forgot milk. Call another Uber to make the 20 mile round trip again? I can see this behavior being OK with people who don't have cars to begin with, or who live in very dense areas, but for the outer suburbs and rural areas and other places built with the assumption that people are driving cars, it's really not workable unless people's expectations drop considerably. >it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere Where are they going to park and who's paying for that parking lot? You can't just handwave these things away.
gumby 9y ago
It’s the largest, or second largest (if you have a mortgage) investment people make, and despite that it typically has less than 5% utilization rate. We’re not talking about cake TV channels — making car payments is a major source of heartache for a lot of people, Eeven worse than making rent since you typically need a vehicle to earn your rent. Large companies can borrow for less AND get a much higher utilization rate from the asset. I just ditched one of my cars. I had no loan, but dividing the purchase price by the 8 years I’d had it, plus insurance and registration it cost me ove $15/day just ito have it in the driveway. I spend less than that on Lyft/uber (though I have a pass for the latter)

croon 9y ago

If I don't want to own one now, I have to get to some place where they rent out cars, get it, do my thing and get it back there again, and then back home. For me this takes about ~30 minutes door to door each direction, even though I live "in the city". In a self driving scenario I use an app and it shows up at my door, and likely much quicker, and then it drives itself off after I'm done.

vonmoltke 9y ago
You can already do this now via Uber, Lyft, or a similar service. Other than making such a service somewhat cheaper, what fundamentally changes?
- croon 9y ago
  > You can already do this now via Uber, Lyft, or a similar service. This is heavily location dependent, as smaller cities and even countries don't have these services. And as you said, much more expensive than a driverless car. Also having the car wait for me during errands would cost a lot more if there's a driver sitting in it during.

bunderbunder 9y ago

Assuming that most of the cost of taxi and rideshare service comes down to paying the driver, I'm expecting that fully self-driving cars will allow the price of such things to drop precipitously. I expect that it will easily be enough of a price drop to make taxis the cheaper option for many people. It may also change the practicalities in ways that drastically alter the nature of the service. With no driver to worry about keeping happy, it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere, waiting maybe hours or even a day or two for the next ride. That makes using taxis to do things like go on a camping trip, or haul yourself out to your parents' house back on the farm, something that makes sense.

vonmoltke 9y ago
> Assuming that most of the cost of taxi and rideshare service comes down to paying the driver From the data I have seen from the New York Taxi and Limousine Commission, this is not a good assumption. > I'm expecting that fully self-driving cars will allow the price of such things to drop precipitously. I expect that it will easily be enough of a price drop to make taxis the cheaper option for many people. While self-driving capability will definitely make taxi service cheaper (even if I think you overestimate the size of the drop), cost is not the only driver. I would not switch entirely to such a service because I want the convenience of having a vehicle available as soon as I want or need it, and the ability to leave things in the vehicle for extended periods or just in case I need them. The rest of my family would have similar issues. > It may also change the practicalities in ways that drastically alter the nature of the service. With no driver to worry about keeping happy, it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere, waiting maybe hours or even a day or two for the next ride. That makes using taxis to do things like go on a camping trip, or haul yourself out to your parents' house back on the farm, something that makes sense. I don't see how this is any different than a car rental service now, other than removing the pick-up and drop-off portions. So I still don't see how self-driving capability fundamentally changes anything.
- bunderbunder 9y ago
  Can you explain where else the cost comes from? I'm thinking here that if a taxi driver's earning, say, $35,000 per year, and you can have two drivers working a shift per car, per day, then your labor costs for operating a cab are $70,000 year per car. Assume a car drives ~100k miles per year, gets 25mpg, and gas costs $4/gal. That's $16,000 for gas. How much do the cars cost, and how much maintenance do they need?
HeyLaughingBoy 9y ago
The problem is that everyone who answers this question focuses on price while completely ignoring latency. Every morning at 6:30, I drive my son to the school bus stop about half a mile away. I do this in part to make sure he makes it there on time, and also because it's often well below 0F at that time of day. So, even if it costs $1 to get an Uber to do that, it would have to show up within a 3 minute window (time between when his morning chores are done and we have to leave), and it would have to wait 5-10 minutes for the bus to show up, since he doesn't want to stand around when it's -10F and blowing 20+ MPH. That's not a normal behavior for a taxi-type service. This daily trip and my morning/evening commutes are the only scheduled vehicle uses we have. Every other use is unplanned and random. The nearest grocery store is 10 miles away. Now I have to plan my trips or wait for a car to get here, take me there, and then wait for another one to pick me up? Oh, I forgot milk. Call another Uber to make the 20 mile round trip again? I can see this behavior being OK with people who don't have cars to begin with, or who live in very dense areas, but for the outer suburbs and rural areas and other places built with the assumption that people are driving cars, it's really not workable unless people's expectations drop considerably. >it might be perfectly fine to leave taxis just parked way out in the middle of nowhere Where are they going to park and who's paying for that parking lot? You can't just handwave these things away.

gumby 9y ago

It’s the largest, or second largest (if you have a mortgage) investment people make, and despite that it typically has less than 5% utilization rate. We’re not talking about cake TV channels — making car payments is a major source of heartache for a lot of people, Eeven worse than making rent since you typically need a vehicle to earn your rent. Large companies can borrow for less AND get a much higher utilization rate from the asset. I just ditched one of my cars. I had no loan, but dividing the purchase price by the 8 years I’d had it, plus insurance and registration it cost me ove $15/day just ito have it in the driveway. I spend less than that on Lyft/uber (though I have a pass for the latter)