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Can somebody tell me how long does it take for then to make a plane and how long until the next "alarm"? I ask because I see 20 ordeals fulfilled per year on wi

Can somebody tell me how long does it take for then to make a plane and how long until the next "alarm"? I ask because I see 20 ordeals fulfilled per year on wiki and at his rate it seems like this is just for one year (without understanding their pipeline)

piquadrat 9y ago
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380#Production_and_delivery_delays https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380#Production_and_del..., production in 2018 will be at 12 per year, so this would add 2-3 years (if the optioned 16 will also be produced).
- shadowbantruth 9y ago
  How does this add 10 years in this case to the life?
  - ubernostrum 9y ago
    It won't add ten years of production of new A380s. It could extend the period of time in which there are airlines flying A380s by ten years. The earliest-delivered A380s are already starting to face retirement by airlines, and aren't being replaced with new ones -- they're being replaced with 777s and A350s. The line in the article is based on Airbus being hopeful that if they can keep the production line open another couple years, more airlines will start ordering A380s. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
  - mpweiher 9y ago
    It doesn't add 10 years, it extends it to 10 years as there already is a backlog. And in 10 years, we will see.
skgoa 9y ago
They made 15 in 2017 and will make 12 in 2018. Starting in 2019 they will go to 8 p.a., which means that the additional 20 planes will push the currently foreseeable end of production from 2023 to around 2025. However Airbus have said that they could go to 6 p.a. and there are strong rumors regarding a big order from China being announced at Leahy's (head salesman at Airbus) last press conference in February. This plus Emirates supposed demand for Airbus guaranteeing production over a 10 year period starting in 2028 has lead people on the internet to speculate that 2028 is the year current and prospective orders will be delivered (going at a rate of at 6 p.a. instead of 8), barring any replacement orders by current users. Overall, the whole story is murky at best. We simply don't know the details of Airbus' production costs and though they claim to be making a profit at 8 p.a., it's pretty unlikely that 6 p.a. can yield any profits. So that would be Airbus making a bet on significant demand materializing over the next 10 years. It would also be a huge bet on Emirates making use of the 10 years of production (i.e. at least 60 airplanes) starting in 2028 that Airbus is rumored to have guaranteed.
- shadowbantruth 9y ago
  Thanks for the details, this should be somewhere near top.
alkonaut 9y ago
And how much of their pipeline is completely bespoke and how much of that space/people/machinery could just produce A350 instead?
- JoeAltmaier 9y ago
  Facilities are part of the equation. But people have to be trained and measured and certified. Those processes have to be designed and documented. The population needed for any process varies with the task - it'd be a coincidence if it was the same for a different pipeline. And the facility is full of jigs and benches and tools and doorways and props and a million things that are bespoke to a process too. Making very complicated things isn't the same as making toasters.
  - alkonaut 9y ago
    I get its terrifying complexity here - and lots of it is bespoke (and international, but outsourced parts probably helps in this case as it becomes someone else’s problem). But when e.g a car manufacturer makes 2 new models they try to keep many components similar. Planes aren’t cars but you’d think at least some systems are common to both A350 and A380.
- skgoa 9y ago
  The pipeline is pretty much bespoke, but they could move machine tools, people and buildings over to a different project if this project ends. I suspect that's why they are pressuring Emirates into committing to furter orders several years out. Had those orders not materialized, Airbus would probably have planned other uses for their existing resources. They are increasing production of all of their other products after all.

piquadrat 9y ago

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380#Production_and_delivery_delays https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380#Production_and_del..., production in 2018 will be at 12 per year, so this would add 2-3 years (if the optioned 16 will also be produced).

shadowbantruth 9y ago
How does this add 10 years in this case to the life?
- ubernostrum 9y ago
  It won't add ten years of production of new A380s. It could extend the period of time in which there are airlines flying A380s by ten years. The earliest-delivered A380s are already starting to face retirement by airlines, and aren't being replaced with new ones -- they're being replaced with 777s and A350s. The line in the article is based on Airbus being hopeful that if they can keep the production line open another couple years, more airlines will start ordering A380s. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
- mpweiher 9y ago
  It doesn't add 10 years, it extends it to 10 years as there already is a backlog. And in 10 years, we will see.

skgoa 9y ago

They made 15 in 2017 and will make 12 in 2018. Starting in 2019 they will go to 8 p.a., which means that the additional 20 planes will push the currently foreseeable end of production from 2023 to around 2025. However Airbus have said that they could go to 6 p.a. and there are strong rumors regarding a big order from China being announced at Leahy's (head salesman at Airbus) last press conference in February. This plus Emirates supposed demand for Airbus guaranteeing production over a 10 year period starting in 2028 has lead people on the internet to speculate that 2028 is the year current and prospective orders will be delivered (going at a rate of at 6 p.a. instead of 8), barring any replacement orders by current users. Overall, the whole story is murky at best. We simply don't know the details of Airbus' production costs and though they claim to be making a profit at 8 p.a., it's pretty unlikely that 6 p.a. can yield any profits. So that would be Airbus making a bet on significant demand materializing over the next 10 years. It would also be a huge bet on Emirates making use of the 10 years of production (i.e. at least 60 airplanes) starting in 2028 that Airbus is rumored to have guaranteed.

shadowbantruth 9y ago
Thanks for the details, this should be somewhere near top.

alkonaut 9y ago

And how much of their pipeline is completely bespoke and how much of that space/people/machinery could just produce A350 instead?

JoeAltmaier 9y ago
Facilities are part of the equation. But people have to be trained and measured and certified. Those processes have to be designed and documented. The population needed for any process varies with the task - it'd be a coincidence if it was the same for a different pipeline. And the facility is full of jigs and benches and tools and doorways and props and a million things that are bespoke to a process too. Making very complicated things isn't the same as making toasters.
- alkonaut 9y ago
  I get its terrifying complexity here - and lots of it is bespoke (and international, but outsourced parts probably helps in this case as it becomes someone else’s problem). But when e.g a car manufacturer makes 2 new models they try to keep many components similar. Planes aren’t cars but you’d think at least some systems are common to both A350 and A380.
skgoa 9y ago
The pipeline is pretty much bespoke, but they could move machine tools, people and buildings over to a different project if this project ends. I suspect that's why they are pressuring Emirates into committing to furter orders several years out. Had those orders not materialized, Airbus would probably have planned other uses for their existing resources. They are increasing production of all of their other products after all.