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re: Your second link. How is this 'evidence on what was to come'?

• qubex 9y ago
  Not evidence, but it sort of comforts me that the bitcoin exchange rate seems to be trending towards the predicted median price that comes out of the Monte Carlo runs. Of course that could just be noise. It's the first one that I found particularly compelling (perhaps because I did research on LPPL dynamics back in the mid 2000s, so it's a technique I put some faith in).
  • kolbe 9y ago
    By your own analysis it's a distribution. Why does any single draw from this distribution, even if it is close to the median, give you any comfort when the odds of being near the median were already extremely low in such a high variance distribution?