The difficulty lies not in predicting a crash successfully, but in being able to do so consistently. At any given time, there is someone who is saying that it’

The difficulty lies not in predicting a crash successfully, but in being able to do so consistently. At any given time, there is someone who is saying that it’s all about to fall apart. There might even be someone who gets the timing and the reasons right. The hard part is doing so consistently, and there’s little evidence that anyone can do this, which indicates that luck is the primary factor in various famous “crystal ball” economic predictions.