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An anti-pattern that I see on HN is very smart people spending lots of energy thinking of all the ways that something can't work. Whenever you have a tough prob

An anti-pattern that I see on HN is very smart people spending lots of energy thinking of all the ways that something can't work. Whenever you have a tough problem, there are usually only a couple ways it can be solved, and infinite reasons it's hard to solve. The fact that your imagination can't come up with killer use cases does not mean that those use cases don't exist. It means you haven't exercised your imagination very hard. Further, if I think I know what crypto's killer use cases will be, also think that I can prove concept as to those use cases within 1-2 years, and I have enough money to fund that process, why would I explain those cases to you? If you're constantly waiting for concepts to be proven, you'll always feel behind the curve and wondering why others have way more money than you, even though you're way smarter than they are. Imagination, vision, and the willingness to push beyond initial analysis are probably worth 20-40 IQ points in terms of lifetime earning potential.

cableshaft 9y ago
Very insightful. It's all too easy to assume there's no use for something because you haven't seen it yet. There was a time when it didn't seem like there was going to be any commercial use for the internet either. In fact, I read a book written in back in 1914, about the history of aviation up to that point, that was talking about planes being used in WWI, and a sentence struck out at me that said something like "It's not determined yet what, or if, there is any commercial use to planes as of yet, but their use in warfare is clear." Obviously in hindsight it's clear that there are tons of commercial uses for airplanes, but back then it wasn't proven yet, and the writer apparently didn't have the imagination to even make a prediction on it.
- CPLX 9y ago
  This is patent nonsense. In 1911 the US government started extensive trials of using planes for air mail delivery which were an obvious success by the following year. The benefits of manned flight to the military, and having a spotter above the battlefield, let alone flying weapons, were massive and immediately apparent to a child. Maybe some writer was trying and failing to make some kind of point. I don't know the guy. None of this really changes the point that ten years into cryptocurrency the only genuine killer use cases are contraband and speculation.
  - cableshaft 9y ago
    You're right, I misremembered the quote. I looked for the quote and I think I found it. This was in the book "Aircraft and Submarines The Story of the Invention, Development, and Present-Day Uses of War's Newest Weapons" by Willis J. Abbot. "In 1917, at the time of writing this book, there are probably thirty distinct types of airplanes being manufactured for commercial and military use, and not less than fifty thousand are being used daily over the battlefields of Europe. No invention save possibly the telephone and the automobile ever attained so prodigious a development in so brief a time. Wise observers hold that the demand for these machines is yet in its infancy, and that when the end of the war shall lead manufacturers and designers to turn their attention to the commercial value of the airplane the flying craft will be as common in the air as the automobiles at least on our country roads." I think what happened is that I was marveling that I was reading a book where it was talking about the history of aviation before there were actual airports and consumer uses for planes, and I was essentially tying that in with 'commercial' in my memory of the passage. Up until this point in the book he hadn't mentioned any real commercial uses, but further investigation revealed that there were actual commercial flights as early as 1914, so I was wrong about that as well. Nevertheless, most people back in 1917 would not even begin to imagine where commercial flight would lead us to one hundred years later, especially with space flight, jumbo jets, super sonic jets, drones, etc. Give crypto one hundred years and I don't think anyone will still be saying "cryptocurrency is only good for contraband and speculation". Give people the chance to build the infrastructure around it.
CPLX 9y ago
This is a bizarre ad homimen way of not answering a fairly simple question where a guy looks at a tool and says hey what can this tool be used for. Especially when people have invested a couple billion dollars in the tool. I actually asked this question of Joseph Lubin, a founder of Ethereum, when I interviewed him for a podcast. Unlike you he did actually have some answers for it, he mentioned peer to peer insurance markets, crowdfunding, seamless payments to content creators. He fits your description and was happy to explain. It was an interesting discussion. I remain unconvinced, in the sense that I think the hype is out of control and 99.99% of the initiatives in this sector are essentially scams, but clearly there are some smart people working on it. Who knows. As an investment I still think it's a dumpster fire, and my question is still an excellent one in my opinion.

cableshaft 9y ago

Very insightful. It's all too easy to assume there's no use for something because you haven't seen it yet. There was a time when it didn't seem like there was going to be any commercial use for the internet either. In fact, I read a book written in back in 1914, about the history of aviation up to that point, that was talking about planes being used in WWI, and a sentence struck out at me that said something like "It's not determined yet what, or if, there is any commercial use to planes as of yet, but their use in warfare is clear." Obviously in hindsight it's clear that there are tons of commercial uses for airplanes, but back then it wasn't proven yet, and the writer apparently didn't have the imagination to even make a prediction on it.

CPLX 9y ago
This is patent nonsense. In 1911 the US government started extensive trials of using planes for air mail delivery which were an obvious success by the following year. The benefits of manned flight to the military, and having a spotter above the battlefield, let alone flying weapons, were massive and immediately apparent to a child. Maybe some writer was trying and failing to make some kind of point. I don't know the guy. None of this really changes the point that ten years into cryptocurrency the only genuine killer use cases are contraband and speculation.
- cableshaft 9y ago
  You're right, I misremembered the quote. I looked for the quote and I think I found it. This was in the book "Aircraft and Submarines The Story of the Invention, Development, and Present-Day Uses of War's Newest Weapons" by Willis J. Abbot. "In 1917, at the time of writing this book, there are probably thirty distinct types of airplanes being manufactured for commercial and military use, and not less than fifty thousand are being used daily over the battlefields of Europe. No invention save possibly the telephone and the automobile ever attained so prodigious a development in so brief a time. Wise observers hold that the demand for these machines is yet in its infancy, and that when the end of the war shall lead manufacturers and designers to turn their attention to the commercial value of the airplane the flying craft will be as common in the air as the automobiles at least on our country roads." I think what happened is that I was marveling that I was reading a book where it was talking about the history of aviation before there were actual airports and consumer uses for planes, and I was essentially tying that in with 'commercial' in my memory of the passage. Up until this point in the book he hadn't mentioned any real commercial uses, but further investigation revealed that there were actual commercial flights as early as 1914, so I was wrong about that as well. Nevertheless, most people back in 1917 would not even begin to imagine where commercial flight would lead us to one hundred years later, especially with space flight, jumbo jets, super sonic jets, drones, etc. Give crypto one hundred years and I don't think anyone will still be saying "cryptocurrency is only good for contraband and speculation". Give people the chance to build the infrastructure around it.

CPLX 9y ago

This is a bizarre ad homimen way of not answering a fairly simple question where a guy looks at a tool and says hey what can this tool be used for. Especially when people have invested a couple billion dollars in the tool. I actually asked this question of Joseph Lubin, a founder of Ethereum, when I interviewed him for a podcast. Unlike you he did actually have some answers for it, he mentioned peer to peer insurance markets, crowdfunding, seamless payments to content creators. He fits your description and was happy to explain. It was an interesting discussion. I remain unconvinced, in the sense that I think the hype is out of control and 99.99% of the initiatives in this sector are essentially scams, but clearly there are some smart people working on it. Who knows. As an investment I still think it's a dumpster fire, and my question is still an excellent one in my opinion.