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It absolutely boggles my mind that so many people in this thread cannot conceive of a run on crypto. I assume they probably don't even know what a "run" is. An

by tbabb 9y ago

It absolutely boggles my mind that so many people in this thread cannot conceive of a run on crypto. I assume they probably don't even know what a "run" is. And it boggles my mind that their only conception of failure is some kind of catastrophe or monumental event, like nuclear war, or quantum computing breaking cryptography. LITERALLY ALL THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IS THAT PEOPLE SUDDENLY WANT IT LESS. Excuse my caps. If people doubt the future of crypto, then the price goes down. If the price goes down, crypto looks less attractive, so the price goes down more. This can spiral arbitrarily close to zero. No nuclear war or quantum computers needed. What is being traded is like MMORPG game money or game items. They're only valuable as long as people want them. Crypto makes them unfakeable, but that doesn't mean people will want them. My jaw is on the floor that this is beyond so many peoples' imagination.

MichaelGG 9y ago
Not to zero. I'd personally pay $1, probably more, for even 10% of all Bitcoins, just for the novelty. If there were no miners, maybe not much more than that, and I'd want the current private keys. I'm guessing there's at least someone that'd pay a few million for all of Bitcoin, so maybe a $0.10-1.0 floor, easily? Would be illiquid and hard for small holders to sell though. Also, quantum computers do not break Bitcoin entirely as in previously unused addresses are safe. You'd need a way to quickly generate keys matching a certain hash. Otherwise you need a ton of hashing power, too, to rewrite the part of the chain created in the time a spend-of-interest was created and you generated matching keys with your attacking machine. Seems like something that can be upgraded assuming a QC-resistant crypto scheme exists.
- ScottBurson 9y ago
  Sure, it won't go to literally zero (unlike stocks; companies can go bankrupt). But the difference between falling three orders of magnitude vs. six, say, is not a very big difference to anyone who bought in at current prices.
- akvadrako 9y ago
  But if it did go to $1, mining would become unprofitable until the next adjustment. So the only way forward is the network to fork. Then you wouldn't own "the Bitcoins", just "a Bitcoins".
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adamnemecek 9y ago
Ok, who's doing this run? There are too many people at this point. There ins't a single entity that is currently capable of controlling all markets at all time. Or like predictably. It's funny, in this thread you dont really see much crypto optimism despite this meme being around for some time now. > What is being traded is like MMORPG game money or game items. There's definitely that aspect to crypto but its naive to think it's a dominant one. It might be like 10% maybe even less.
- tbabb 9y ago
  > Ok, who's doing this run? There are too many people at this point. There ins't a single entity that is currently capable of controlling all markets at all time. No offense, but I think this proves my point about commenters not having any clue what a run is or how markets work. Explain to me what you think causes a run?
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  - adamnemecek 9y ago
    Describe to me how it's a run, I'll tell you why it's not. How about that. Is it really that unbelievable that bitcoin breaks certain economic rules and that some economic theory might have to be rethought? Is that what you are implying? That economics is like "science"?
    - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
      > Is it really that unbelievable that bitcoin breaks certain economic rules and that some economic theory might have to be rethought? Yes. Particularly when the basis of this rethinking is “there are so many people involved, how could it possibly crash.”
      - adamnemecek 9y ago
        That's not even my main argument.
davidiach 9y ago
That's like saying the price of the Mona Lisa can go to zero just because people suddenly want it less. Things like that don't just suddenly happen for no reason.
- tbabb 9y ago
  Explain to me what you think a market run is and how it happens.
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by tbabb 9y ago

MichaelGG 9y ago

Not to zero. I'd personally pay $1, probably more, for even 10% of all Bitcoins, just for the novelty. If there were no miners, maybe not much more than that, and I'd want the current private keys. I'm guessing there's at least someone that'd pay a few million for all of Bitcoin, so maybe a $0.10-1.0 floor, easily? Would be illiquid and hard for small holders to sell though. Also, quantum computers do not break Bitcoin entirely as in previously unused addresses are safe. You'd need a way to quickly generate keys matching a certain hash. Otherwise you need a ton of hashing power, too, to rewrite the part of the chain created in the time a spend-of-interest was created and you generated matching keys with your attacking machine. Seems like something that can be upgraded assuming a QC-resistant crypto scheme exists.

ScottBurson 9y ago
Sure, it won't go to literally zero (unlike stocks; companies can go bankrupt). But the difference between falling three orders of magnitude vs. six, say, is not a very big difference to anyone who bought in at current prices.
akvadrako 9y ago
But if it did go to $1, mining would become unprofitable until the next adjustment. So the only way forward is the network to fork. Then you wouldn't own "the Bitcoins", just "a Bitcoins".
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]

adamnemecek 9y ago

Ok, who's doing this run? There are too many people at this point. There ins't a single entity that is currently capable of controlling all markets at all time. Or like predictably. It's funny, in this thread you dont really see much crypto optimism despite this meme being around for some time now. > What is being traded is like MMORPG game money or game items. There's definitely that aspect to crypto but its naive to think it's a dominant one. It might be like 10% maybe even less.

tbabb 9y ago
> Ok, who's doing this run? There are too many people at this point. There ins't a single entity that is currently capable of controlling all markets at all time. No offense, but I think this proves my point about commenters not having any clue what a run is or how markets work. Explain to me what you think causes a run?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- adamnemecek 9y ago
  Describe to me how it's a run, I'll tell you why it's not. How about that. Is it really that unbelievable that bitcoin breaks certain economic rules and that some economic theory might have to be rethought? Is that what you are implying? That economics is like "science"?
  - JumpCrisscross 9y ago
    > Is it really that unbelievable that bitcoin breaks certain economic rules and that some economic theory might have to be rethought? Yes. Particularly when the basis of this rethinking is “there are so many people involved, how could it possibly crash.”
    - adamnemecek 9y ago
      That's not even my main argument.

davidiach 9y ago

That's like saying the price of the Mona Lisa can go to zero just because people suddenly want it less. Things like that don't just suddenly happen for no reason.

tbabb 9y ago
Explain to me what you think a market run is and how it happens.
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