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The chances that BTC (or any given crypto asset) goes to zero right now (or in the near future), with the information we CURRENTLY have, are low...market gyrati

by nlh 9y ago

The chances that BTC (or any given crypto asset) goes to zero right now (or in the near future), with the information we CURRENTLY have, are low...market gyrations will happen, things will fluctuate +/- 20, 30, 50%, maybe they'll all go up 10x, maybe 100x, etc. As long as folks believe there's a get rich quick possibility (or believe in the viability of crypto assets, or whatever), things will keep on as they've kept on. HOWEVER: What that line of thinking misses is the possibility of new, external, market-shocking information. I don't know what that is or could be (the ol 'we don't know what we don't know'). Maybe someone discovers a massive and fundamental bug that renders them useless. Maybe quantum computing advances faster than we think and factoring large numbers becomes trivial. Maybe ______, maybe _______, maybe maybe maybe. THAT is what could bring it all to $0. That's what you should be worried about. That's why this isn't a sure thing for ever and ever.

coldcode 9y ago
I've always wondered what Bitcoin would be worth if (1) Nuclear war destroys the internet or cloud servers (2) Mining costs more than its worth and no one mines any more (3) It becomes impossible due to legal or other reasons to convert bitcoin to a real currency without extra-legal efforts.
- qsucvatz 9y ago
  If mining is too difficult,the difficulty drops, until a single PC is finding every block on schedule. I'll mine, so that won't happen.
  - nlh 9y ago
    So I guess I'd say my point is that you say "I'll mine, so that won't happen" NOW, which is both fair and rational. But let's say tomorrow we discover a critical vulnerability in the bitcoin source that's been overlooked and causes the whole thing to be destabilized and, effectively worthless. Everyone moves on to BTC 2.0 (or whatever the fork is). Will you still mine original BTC? No. Why would you? It'd be a waste of resources.

by nlh 9y ago

coldcode 9y ago

I've always wondered what Bitcoin would be worth if (1) Nuclear war destroys the internet or cloud servers (2) Mining costs more than its worth and no one mines any more (3) It becomes impossible due to legal or other reasons to convert bitcoin to a real currency without extra-legal efforts.

qsucvatz 9y ago
If mining is too difficult,the difficulty drops, until a single PC is finding every block on schedule. I'll mine, so that won't happen.
- nlh 9y ago
  So I guess I'd say my point is that you say "I'll mine, so that won't happen" NOW, which is both fair and rational. But let's say tomorrow we discover a critical vulnerability in the bitcoin source that's been overlooked and causes the whole thing to be destabilized and, effectively worthless. Everyone moves on to BTC 2.0 (or whatever the fork is). Will you still mine original BTC? No. Why would you? It'd be a waste of resources.