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> So are you saying that it's more rational to simply think 'anything is possible' even though the available evidence and information seems to point to the fact

by v64 9y ago

> So are you saying that it's more rational to simply think 'anything is possible' even though the available evidence and information seems to point to the fact that that isn't the case? At what point do you believe the internet had made its case as a technology? 1975? 1985? 1995? 2005? In each of those years, you had naysayers saying the internet would never become something people use in their daily lives, but here we are. The evidence of today should not stifle the innovation of tomorrow. > Also with respect to things like 'nobody will ever need a computer in their house' or what Watson of IBM said (regarding the need for only a small amount of computers in total) you are also not looking at the times that that type of statement ('will never work and here is why' or 'not needed because xyz') was true. It's not just Watson who made that statement. Many business owners in the 90s looked at computer and internet technology and dismissed it as a fad that would cease to exist in 5 years (and after the bubble popped, they were 100% sure they were correct). I believed in computers and the internet then because they solved unsolved problems, and offered better solutions than existing ones. In the field of trustless services, I believe the blockchain will be an essential part of that. And maybe it won't exactly be the blockchain we have today, but it will either be an improvement upon it, or an alternative idea created to address the problems of the original. Regardless of how the blockchain is and will eventually be used in practice, it's a simple theoretical model that offers a proof of what's possible in this space that we didn't have before. If you don't think the blockchain is "it", then what other technology do we have today that solves the same third party trust problems as the blockchain? Or do you believe that reliance on third parties in business and finance is something we don't need to overcome?

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
chrisco255 9y ago
I have to agree with your overall sentiment. After the Bitcoin boom in 2013 (and its subsequent bust in early 2014), I kind of stopped paying attention to the crypto space for a while. Little did I know that Buterin & Co. were busy building and launching Ethereum, which has profound implications of its own, some entirely orthogonal to Bitcoin's implications. We are definitely in Geocities days. I sold cell phones to senior citizens in the early 00's, and that was a HARD SELL. Most of the ones that did buy, bought the minimal $20 / month, 60 minutes + nights & weekends plan because they thought "they would only use cell phones for emergencies". Don't even get me started on mobile web WEP browsers. It was unusable crap 15 years ago. And I would have to convince people that surely they would be checking their stocks, the news, etc. on their cell phones. The scoffs I got were unbelievable today. Now, 15 years later, everyone and their grandmother has an iPhone / Android. Where are all the hackers and dreamers on HN? I thought that's what this site was for. Irrational optimism is the fuel that feeds technological revolutions. So much negativity with crypto.
gist 9y ago
> Many business owners in the 90s looked at computer and internet technology and dismissed it as a fad that would cease to exist in 5 years Well I've been around this for much longer than the 90's. Since the late 70's actually. I don't remember it that way at all. What I remember was that at the time it was either to expensive or the company (small ones) didn't have the time or resources to stop what they were doing and get a system up and running (say for inventory or shipping). There was not at all (and I was around plenty of small businesses btw) any sense that it wasn't something they needed. Anyone who typed invoices at the time (on a typewritter) and had to look up or remember pricing and/or work with inventory could easily see what a computer could do for them. The only issue was the cost. With respect to the internet it was seen as unusable and not needed because of the speed primarily. If the speed wasn't fixed by broadband it would not have taken off. If you told people back then 'in 2 years you will have 'always on internet'' they would have thought differently.
- v64 9y ago
  Out of curiosity, where did you live and what sector did you work in? From my own experience, I agree that the businesses that were excited about computer technology were businesses with high amounts of inventory and paperwork where automation could greatly simplified their business processes, and that many of these businesses were located in urban centers that were at the forefront of infrastructure. These large businesses can make large profit by cutting margins by a few points, so it made sense for them. It was from small to medium sized businesses where I saw the most resistance, both from a cost and a cultural point of view. I demonstrated broadband internet to individuals at the time and still couldn't convince them of its merits, so I don't think everyone then understood the implications of fast, always on internet. Even just 5 years ago, I worked for a tech company in the self-storage industry, and many large operators were still running their entire businesses in physical ledgers with no equivalent computerized records. There is still a strong resistance among many older businesses to convert to computerized records, despite the clear cost savings that can be demonstrated at this point. Reasons include not wanting to learn a new system and being afraid that the business couldn't run if the internet goes out. As I said, this was in 2012.
  - 9y ago
thatthatis 9y ago
I think the internet proved its core thesis of usefulness with the installation of the first transatlantic telegraph line. Instant, zero marginal cost communication reduced cost, and improved decision speed. telegraph:instant communication::bitcoin:block chain internet:instant communication::______:block chain?

by v64 9y ago

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

chrisco255 9y ago

I have to agree with your overall sentiment. After the Bitcoin boom in 2013 (and its subsequent bust in early 2014), I kind of stopped paying attention to the crypto space for a while. Little did I know that Buterin & Co. were busy building and launching Ethereum, which has profound implications of its own, some entirely orthogonal to Bitcoin's implications. We are definitely in Geocities days. I sold cell phones to senior citizens in the early 00's, and that was a HARD SELL. Most of the ones that did buy, bought the minimal $20 / month, 60 minutes + nights & weekends plan because they thought "they would only use cell phones for emergencies". Don't even get me started on mobile web WEP browsers. It was unusable crap 15 years ago. And I would have to convince people that surely they would be checking their stocks, the news, etc. on their cell phones. The scoffs I got were unbelievable today. Now, 15 years later, everyone and their grandmother has an iPhone / Android. Where are all the hackers and dreamers on HN? I thought that's what this site was for. Irrational optimism is the fuel that feeds technological revolutions. So much negativity with crypto.

gist 9y ago

> Many business owners in the 90s looked at computer and internet technology and dismissed it as a fad that would cease to exist in 5 years Well I've been around this for much longer than the 90's. Since the late 70's actually. I don't remember it that way at all. What I remember was that at the time it was either to expensive or the company (small ones) didn't have the time or resources to stop what they were doing and get a system up and running (say for inventory or shipping). There was not at all (and I was around plenty of small businesses btw) any sense that it wasn't something they needed. Anyone who typed invoices at the time (on a typewritter) and had to look up or remember pricing and/or work with inventory could easily see what a computer could do for them. The only issue was the cost. With respect to the internet it was seen as unusable and not needed because of the speed primarily. If the speed wasn't fixed by broadband it would not have taken off. If you told people back then 'in 2 years you will have 'always on internet'' they would have thought differently.

v64 9y ago
Out of curiosity, where did you live and what sector did you work in? From my own experience, I agree that the businesses that were excited about computer technology were businesses with high amounts of inventory and paperwork where automation could greatly simplified their business processes, and that many of these businesses were located in urban centers that were at the forefront of infrastructure. These large businesses can make large profit by cutting margins by a few points, so it made sense for them. It was from small to medium sized businesses where I saw the most resistance, both from a cost and a cultural point of view. I demonstrated broadband internet to individuals at the time and still couldn't convince them of its merits, so I don't think everyone then understood the implications of fast, always on internet. Even just 5 years ago, I worked for a tech company in the self-storage industry, and many large operators were still running their entire businesses in physical ledgers with no equivalent computerized records. There is still a strong resistance among many older businesses to convert to computerized records, despite the clear cost savings that can be demonstrated at this point. Reasons include not wanting to learn a new system and being afraid that the business couldn't run if the internet goes out. As I said, this was in 2012.
- 9y ago

thatthatis 9y ago

I think the internet proved its core thesis of usefulness with the installation of the first transatlantic telegraph line. Instant, zero marginal cost communication reduced cost, and improved decision speed. telegraph:instant communication::bitcoin:block chain internet:instant communication::______:block chain?