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I have seen comparisons to the .com boom/bubble, and I don't buy it. There was a lot of economic movement while the entire economy moved over to the internet.

by tbabb 9y ago

I have seen comparisons to the .com boom/bubble, and I don't buy it. There was a lot of economic movement while the entire economy moved over to the internet. Those who didn't adapt failed. Those who tried models which didn't translate also failed. Lots of experimentation, and lots of reinventing things from scratch. So lots of failure and lots of speculation-- but ultimately around a real sea change. I don't see how blockchain tech could have a technological / cultural impact on that scale. It has some value, and it will find its place in mainstream society, but I don't see how/why the market needs to test everything against it to reinvent itself as was done when the internet came to the fore. I could see that for sure with AI, but blockchain? Seems pretty specific and limited. Much more hype and much less substance than the .com revolution, IMO.

tessierashpool 9y ago
this makes a lot of sense to me for the simple reason that during the dot-com boom, the world wasn’t packed with people who remembered a dot-com boom.
eth1 9y ago
.com allowed for freedom of information crypto is allowing freedom of value. it's more disruptive
CPLX 9y ago
I keep asking people this simple question, which goes something like this: Before the internet, I would wake up in the morning and have to go to a store and buy clothes, then the travel agent to book flights, then Blockbuster to get a movie to watch. After the internet I could wake up in the morning and do all that myself. That was valuable. Before smartphones I would wake up in the morning and print out my airline tickets, then call a taxi service and have to explain to them where I was, and I couldn't tell where the driver was if I didn't see him. OK, got all that? Now, with cryptocurrency I will wake up in the morning and do what? I could send money to buy drugs, that's a pretty killer use case. There are some things like transferring money out of a war torn country that maybe it would help that have some value, but I'm not in a war torn country. So... where's my killer use case? It's important to note that all the internet/smartphone examples above are INCREDIBLE use cases, and that's just scratching the surface. Booking travel used to SUCK now it's better. I can get books instantly. I can collaborate on music or video production across the country. And so on, these are big deal things. There are TONS of examples. The business opportunities here were utterly massive. Nearly everything people and businesses did on a daily basis changed in consequential ways due to the internet in ways that opened up opportunity for profit. And even with that said most of the people who saw the promise of the internet in 1997-2000 and put money into passive investments got creamed. Now, in all seriousness, what's my morning going to be like with crypto as a mature technology, how will it be different and better and why will I care? When will this happen, why hasn't it already happened, and how are all these people going to profit from the change?
- maehwasu 9y ago
  An anti-pattern that I see on HN is very smart people spending lots of energy thinking of all the ways that something can't work. Whenever you have a tough problem, there are usually only a couple ways it can be solved, and infinite reasons it's hard to solve. The fact that your imagination can't come up with killer use cases does not mean that those use cases don't exist. It means you haven't exercised your imagination very hard. Further, if I think I know what crypto's killer use cases will be, also think that I can prove concept as to those use cases within 1-2 years, and I have enough money to fund that process, why would I explain those cases to you? If you're constantly waiting for concepts to be proven, you'll always feel behind the curve and wondering why others have way more money than you, even though you're way smarter than they are. Imagination, vision, and the willingness to push beyond initial analysis are probably worth 20-40 IQ points in terms of lifetime earning potential.
  - cableshaft 9y ago
    Very insightful. It's all too easy to assume there's no use for something because you haven't seen it yet. There was a time when it didn't seem like there was going to be any commercial use for the internet either. In fact, I read a book written in back in 1914, about the history of aviation up to that point, that was talking about planes being used in WWI, and a sentence struck out at me that said something like "It's not determined yet what, or if, there is any commercial use to planes as of yet, but their use in warfare is clear." Obviously in hindsight it's clear that there are tons of commercial uses for airplanes, but back then it wasn't proven yet, and the writer apparently didn't have the imagination to even make a prediction on it.
    - CPLX 9y ago
      This is patent nonsense. In 1911 the US government started extensive trials of using planes for air mail delivery which were an obvious success by the following year. The benefits of manned flight to the military, and having a spotter above the battlefield, let alone flying weapons, were massive and immediately apparent to a child. Maybe some writer was trying and failing to make some kind of point. I don't know the guy. None of this really changes the point that ten years into cryptocurrency the only genuine killer use cases are contraband and speculation.

by tbabb 9y ago

tessierashpool 9y ago

this makes a lot of sense to me for the simple reason that during the dot-com boom, the world wasn’t packed with people who remembered a dot-com boom.

eth1 9y ago

.com allowed for freedom of information crypto is allowing freedom of value. it's more disruptive

CPLX 9y ago

I keep asking people this simple question, which goes something like this: Before the internet, I would wake up in the morning and have to go to a store and buy clothes, then the travel agent to book flights, then Blockbuster to get a movie to watch. After the internet I could wake up in the morning and do all that myself. That was valuable. Before smartphones I would wake up in the morning and print out my airline tickets, then call a taxi service and have to explain to them where I was, and I couldn't tell where the driver was if I didn't see him. OK, got all that? Now, with cryptocurrency I will wake up in the morning and do what? I could send money to buy drugs, that's a pretty killer use case. There are some things like transferring money out of a war torn country that maybe it would help that have some value, but I'm not in a war torn country. So... where's my killer use case? It's important to note that all the internet/smartphone examples above are INCREDIBLE use cases, and that's just scratching the surface. Booking travel used to SUCK now it's better. I can get books instantly. I can collaborate on music or video production across the country. And so on, these are big deal things. There are TONS of examples. The business opportunities here were utterly massive. Nearly everything people and businesses did on a daily basis changed in consequential ways due to the internet in ways that opened up opportunity for profit. And even with that said most of the people who saw the promise of the internet in 1997-2000 and put money into passive investments got creamed. Now, in all seriousness, what's my morning going to be like with crypto as a mature technology, how will it be different and better and why will I care? When will this happen, why hasn't it already happened, and how are all these people going to profit from the change?

maehwasu 9y ago
An anti-pattern that I see on HN is very smart people spending lots of energy thinking of all the ways that something can't work. Whenever you have a tough problem, there are usually only a couple ways it can be solved, and infinite reasons it's hard to solve. The fact that your imagination can't come up with killer use cases does not mean that those use cases don't exist. It means you haven't exercised your imagination very hard. Further, if I think I know what crypto's killer use cases will be, also think that I can prove concept as to those use cases within 1-2 years, and I have enough money to fund that process, why would I explain those cases to you? If you're constantly waiting for concepts to be proven, you'll always feel behind the curve and wondering why others have way more money than you, even though you're way smarter than they are. Imagination, vision, and the willingness to push beyond initial analysis are probably worth 20-40 IQ points in terms of lifetime earning potential.
- cableshaft 9y ago
  Very insightful. It's all too easy to assume there's no use for something because you haven't seen it yet. There was a time when it didn't seem like there was going to be any commercial use for the internet either. In fact, I read a book written in back in 1914, about the history of aviation up to that point, that was talking about planes being used in WWI, and a sentence struck out at me that said something like "It's not determined yet what, or if, there is any commercial use to planes as of yet, but their use in warfare is clear." Obviously in hindsight it's clear that there are tons of commercial uses for airplanes, but back then it wasn't proven yet, and the writer apparently didn't have the imagination to even make a prediction on it.
  - CPLX 9y ago
    This is patent nonsense. In 1911 the US government started extensive trials of using planes for air mail delivery which were an obvious success by the following year. The benefits of manned flight to the military, and having a spotter above the battlefield, let alone flying weapons, were massive and immediately apparent to a child. Maybe some writer was trying and failing to make some kind of point. I don't know the guy. None of this really changes the point that ten years into cryptocurrency the only genuine killer use cases are contraband and speculation.