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How would you define "overvalued"? Is it the current average price compared to a very low price three months from now? What if it recovers a few weeks after tha

How would you define "overvalued"? Is it the current average price compared to a very low price three months from now? What if it recovers a few weeks after that — would that change the fact that it was once "overvalued"? Valuation is not based on nothing, in vacuum. The challenge is to understand the underlying factors. The post you replied to actually tried to shed some light.

jhoechtl 9y ago
The price of energy required to mine 1 BTC. What else? That's its inherent value.
- glenneroo 9y ago
  This will end very soon since 80% of coins have been mined already. So the energy consumption will only be miners processing transactions.
  - teh_klev 9y ago
    In my book, 2140 isn't "very soon" (based on the current Bitcoin mining algos).
    - notsrg 9y ago
      The last 1% of unmined Bitcoin will last over 100 years. A majority of mining profits at that point will be from tx fees.
      - teh_klev 9y ago
        Sure, but "only" !== "majority".
- sethgecko 9y ago
  The price of energy required to mine a bitcoin follows the bitcoin price not the other way around.
- paulgb 9y ago
  This is just the discredited labor theory of value, applied to machines instead of humans.
  - oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
    In other words, I could spend an hour exerting effort and have nothing of value to show for it at the end?
    - jrimbault 9y ago
      That's obvious... You can work for a year and still get nothing... Because your work has no value in and of itself. In general things are only as valuable as the "market" is willing to pay for them.
      - oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
        > That's obvious Sure, I was agreeing / checking my understanding was correct :)
- steeleduncan 9y ago
  No, the energy required is a function of the price, not the other way around. The bitcoin network adjusts the block difficulty (effectively the energy required to mine 1 BTC) every 2016 blocks such that the rate of creating blocks is fixed at one block (currently 12.5 BTC) every ten minutes. If the dollar value of energy required to mine 1 BTC is significantly less than the current dollar value of a bitcoin then it is likely more hash power will be added to the network by the bitcoin farms, further increasing the network's hash rate, and as a consequence the block difficulty and therefore the price of the energy required to mine 1 BTC.
Goladus 9y ago
How would you define "overvalued"? The difference between the price of bitcoin versus the price of bitcoin as it would be if it was only used as a medium of exchange rather than a speculative asset.

jhoechtl 9y ago

The price of energy required to mine 1 BTC. What else? That's its inherent value.

glenneroo 9y ago
This will end very soon since 80% of coins have been mined already. So the energy consumption will only be miners processing transactions.
- teh_klev 9y ago
  In my book, 2140 isn't "very soon" (based on the current Bitcoin mining algos).
  - notsrg 9y ago
    The last 1% of unmined Bitcoin will last over 100 years. A majority of mining profits at that point will be from tx fees.
    - teh_klev 9y ago
      Sure, but "only" !== "majority".
sethgecko 9y ago
The price of energy required to mine a bitcoin follows the bitcoin price not the other way around.
paulgb 9y ago
This is just the discredited labor theory of value, applied to machines instead of humans.
- oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
  In other words, I could spend an hour exerting effort and have nothing of value to show for it at the end?
  - jrimbault 9y ago
    That's obvious... You can work for a year and still get nothing... Because your work has no value in and of itself. In general things are only as valuable as the "market" is willing to pay for them.
    - oneeyedpigeon 9y ago
      > That's obvious Sure, I was agreeing / checking my understanding was correct :)
steeleduncan 9y ago
No, the energy required is a function of the price, not the other way around. The bitcoin network adjusts the block difficulty (effectively the energy required to mine 1 BTC) every 2016 blocks such that the rate of creating blocks is fixed at one block (currently 12.5 BTC) every ten minutes. If the dollar value of energy required to mine 1 BTC is significantly less than the current dollar value of a bitcoin then it is likely more hash power will be added to the network by the bitcoin farms, further increasing the network's hash rate, and as a consequence the block difficulty and therefore the price of the energy required to mine 1 BTC.

Goladus 9y ago

How would you define "overvalued"? The difference between the price of bitcoin versus the price of bitcoin as it would be if it was only used as a medium of exchange rather than a speculative asset.