I find that the biggest intellectual mistake of pessimists is that they take an actuarial view of reality: "99% of startups fail, thus we are doomed from the ge

I find that the biggest intellectual mistake of pessimists is that they take an actuarial view of reality: "99% of startups fail, thus we are doomed from the get-go and our <current problems> are evidence of that". This might be correct if you take a 3rd-person perspective view, but ignores human agency and the ability to steer situations - sometimes via sheer willpower. See Paul Graham's essay on Intellect vs. Determination.