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While I think luck plays a major part, in almost all cases the consequences of a retaliation set quite a high bar for the evidence from warning systems to pass.
by thom 9y ago
While I think luck plays a major part, in almost all cases the consequences of a retaliation set quite a high bar for the evidence from warning systems to pass. In the case of shooting down spy planes, that bar is lower. In the case of arresting a foreign national on suspicion of espionage, it's lower still. If armageddon wasn't on the table, many of the individuals involved in these close calls might have acted differently.
So I agree we've been lucky, but I think we should acknowledge that mutually assured destruction has at least loaded the dice.
- jacquesm 9y ago> but I think we should acknowledge that mutually assured destruction has at least loaded the dice. Even loaded dice come up '1' every now and then. So that's just a means of staying in the game a little longer, it will not ensure a long term outcome.
- thom 9y agoYup, totally agree with that. I personally don't see how disarmament can ever happen though, so I choose to think of it as a chronic problem like the threat of an asteroid strike, and just hug my kids a little harder.