This is a very simplistic view. The expected value is very low at an early stage company, but with a very high upside. It is closer to a lottery ticket althoug

This is a very simplistic view. The expected value is very low at an early stage company, but with a very high upside. It is closer to a lottery ticket although with far better odds - betting on horse racing maybe. At a later stage unicorn (Uber, AirBNB, etc) that has switched to RSUs, the expected value isn’t likely to go to 0 unless common gets entirely wiped out. There’s still upside but it is more modest (Uber isn’t going to 10x). And at a public company, there’s still a range given the typical 4 year vesting window.