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> In no place in the US is this true Induced housing demand is common in the majority of cities across the US. The act of creating urban housing makes an area
by maxsilver 9y ago
> In no place in the US is this true
Induced housing demand is common in the majority of cities across the US. The act of creating urban housing makes an area in higher demand than the housing just built could actually supply. The action of creating 100 units of supply simultaneously generates ~120+ units of demand.
Most people refer to this as "gentrification", even if that label isn't totally accurate. It obviously doesn't last forever, you can't generate more demand indefinitely. But it absolutely does happen -- we see the results all the time.
And to be clear that's not an argument against new housing -- we obviously need to build more housing. But it's a common observation that new 'market-rate' urban housing does not lower prices, but raises them in short and medium length timeframes (yes even in non-coastal cities, yes even in small towns, etc).
We see this in Seattle too. Seattle rents are 4.5% higher than last year, or 50% higher than they were 5 years ago, according to the articles own data. They'll be even higher next year, and Seattle Times will write an article about the winter slowdown in leasing, and rents will rise even higher again a year later. Until the bubble pops, the cycle will continue.
- Kalium 9y agoPlease accept my apologies, I should clarify. All the data I've ever seen on induced demand in major US cities suggests very strongly that building units in major cities does not create demand for a greater number of units than are constructed. The last study I saw on the subject in San Francisco showed that for 100 units of newly constructed supply, about 85 would be consumed by extant demand, roughly 15 would be consumed by new migrants, and less than 10 new units of demand that would not have existed otherwise gets generated. This is admittedly not obvious, and generally looks like purely generated demand when viewed at a very coarse level. Incidentally, induced demand is an idea I often see advanced as an argument against constructing housing.