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So I'm reading and thinking, "this information is useless, I can't get a likelihood ratio out of this"... and then someone actually provides the Bayesian poster
by Eliezer 16y ago
So I'm reading and thinking, "this information is useless, I can't get a likelihood ratio out of this"... and then someone actually provides the Bayesian posterior probability! Woohoo! Rationality prevails! Could this be the dawn of a new era?
- pjscott 16y agoThe guy who calculated the likelihood ratio was writing in a blog post in response to a bunch of mainstream articles which failed to do so. And then he was quoted in SingularityHub, which I would hope would be a bit better-informed than typical science journalists. If this is the dawn of a new era, then the defining trait of this new era is that people outside the mainstream can make themselves heard, thanks to the internet. I'll happily change my mind about that if I see someone like the BBC mention posterior probabilities in an article about this.