4 ms·

> However, my initial instinct was "either the system doesn't work, or someone messed up". Why? What really surprises me the most is that this seems to be a co

• harryh 9y ago
  Bayesian reasoning. Most positive tests for unlikely events are false positives.
  • nothrabannosir 9y ago
    (Assuming plausible alternatives, being those false positives. Which is true in this case, of course.)
• true_religion 9y ago
  I felt the same way, but its not because I distrusted the government. The situation didn't feel like one wherein nuclear missiles would start being fired (or any missiles of any kind). There's got to be some sort of build up before a conflict before it can't catch people in shock (hence the rational of actual surprise-attacks). If tomorrow you read that Canada had invaded New York City, would you believe it instantly out of trust for your news agencies and government, or think that perhaps someone somewhere screwed up or was making a silly joke?
  • herbst 9y ago
    Personally i dont think a attack to the U.S. would be to much of a surprise. But true there is currently no direct tension in that direction. Also as someone else said, Hawaii really is a unlikely target. I get it now i guess.
    • influx 9y ago
      Irony that Hawaii was actually the first target in ww2
  • Parcissons 9y ago
    A buildup- you mean like a constant shelling of innocents by drones every day?
• brndnmtthws 9y ago
  For me it's 2 things: 1) it seems incredibly unlikely, and 2) these systems haven't really been tested adequately for me to have much confidence in their utility.
  • knz 9y ago
    The emergency alert system has been used here in Minnesota for tornadoes, amber alerts, and flash flooding. Sitting in a room and hearing every phone go off or waking up to your own phone making the warning tone is quite alarming. If I received one about a nuclear missile I'd assume it's legitimate and at least take some minor precautions while trying to verify the alert. It's foolish to assume every unlikely alert is a false alarm. That said, a single nuclear missile seems incredibly unlikely to me. I'd expect multiple missiles and an associated cyber attack if another nation state was willing to start a nuclear exchange. A single missile is just inviting the wrath of the US and rest of the world for little benefit.
    • jjeaff 9y ago
      From the screenshots of the message, I don't think you would know if it was one or many missles or whether they were nuclear or not.
• tome 9y ago
  Hawaii does not seem like a plausible target for a nuclear missile.
  • macintux 9y ago
    Why not? Until recently it was one of the few places North Korea could reasonably expect to reach.
    • laretluval 9y ago
      What would NK have to gain by nuking Hawaii? It would cause the US to retaliate massively, while not doing serious damage to its military capabilities.
      • jjeaff 9y ago
        No amount of nuclear missles would do much to prevent the US from retaliating with it's nuclear arsenal. The majority of the US nuclear arsenal is floating underwater in always moving, undisclosed places via submarine spread throughout the world's oceans.
      • UweSchmidt 9y ago
        You think the US would actually retaliate against a limited nuclear attack in an isolated place with a massive nuclear counterattack? (I can see it in a cold war scenario against the USSR, with tanks moving into Europe and the world order at stake) I think the US woudln't and, of course, shouldn't. The usual game-theoretical reasonings in this regard are misguided and shortsighted.
        • berbec 9y ago
          I don't think a normal, sanely led US would do that either. More likely the president and joint chiefs would sit in a room and discuss "a proportional response". Turning most of North Korea uninhabitable for generations does not meet that standard. On the other hand, I can see President MAGA saying "turn the entire peninsula into one large crater," a series of Generals trying to talk him out of it and getting fired. An apocalyptic Saturday Night Massacre until he found the just-promoted-ex-Colonel who would issue the order for him.