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Many people, even within crypto-community, failed to recognize that speculation is one of fundamental factors which bring real value to cryptocurrencies. To un
by hal9000xp 9y ago
Many people, even within crypto-community, failed to recognize that speculation is one of fundamental factors which bring real value to cryptocurrencies.
To understand that you have to think about a concept called self-fulfilling prophesy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy
Bitcoin started as a fixed-supply currency. Fixed-supply attracted early speculators who are willing to put their fiat into gamble about future utility of Bitcoin.
As speculators started to trade, guys who sell drugs over internet got idea that they can use these new unknown strange tokens for transactions because they could dump these weird tokens on speculators in exchange of fiats.
So gamble about unknown future became reality which attracted even more speculators (https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/ https://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/).
This in turn attracted wealthy people in countries like China because they wanted to move money out of their country.
Do you see here a loop?
If Bitcoin wouldn't have huge financial incentive for early adopters, then nobody would give a shit about these weird p2p internet tokens!
So key factors of early cryptocurrency value: speculation, war on drugs, excessive cross-border transfer regulation.
Since most people are politically left-wing, they can't get rid of negative bias towards words like speculation and bubble.
There are good bubbles and bad bubbles. Every bubble eventually burst but it doesn't automaticaly make them bad.
Dot-com bubble was good as it was wealth transfer towards programmers with lack of social skills. Some one them created something cool and interesting, some of them are don't.
2005-2008 housing bubble was bad as it was wealth transfer towards snobbish conservative bankers who live in their exclusive Wall-Street club protected from competitors by excessive regulation ironically supported by left-wing voters.
Cryptocurrency bubble is very good. It's not just wealth transfer towards programmers. It's wealth transfer towards open-source protocol creators. Of course, there will be clowns in the space but come on, it's life, nothing is perfect. It's way better bubble since in the center of this bubble some random nerds, not snobby privileged Harvard-type Lehman Brothers top managers.
- thebokehwokeh2 9y ago> It's way better bubble since in the center of this bubble some random nerds, not snobby privileged Harvard-type Lehman Brothers top managers. You're being incredibly naive. Programmers are not the ones moving the needle on this bubble. They may have been the early adaptors, but it's the people with incredibly large sums of money who are making out like bandits.
- hal9000xp 9y agoYou are either naive or troll or just don't understand crypto-market. The whole beauty of crypto-market is that there is very low barrier of entry and at the same time very, very, very huge possible upside. This make possible for very small players to become bigger, much bigger. On the other hand, traditional stock market is very efficient so you may hope for 20% per year at best. Therefore, 20% from approximately zero (say 1000 USD) is still zero. In this case, only wealthy people make money there, others suck collecting pennies. I'm on this market, I'm programmer and I'm much more successful on this market than I could never dream of on any other market. So if you didn't make any money on crypto-market, please, don't waste my time arguing with me.
- kelnos 9y ago> Therefore, 20% from approximately zero (say 1000 USD) is still zero. Only if you consider the market as a whole, but how is that useful? I'm actually pretty thrilled to be able to collect $200/yr based on doing nothing but putting up $1000 to start. I'm even more happy when I look at the volatility of cryptocurrencies, and also the fact that crypto isn't actually backing much in the way of economic activity; it's just doing some minor-league capital reallocation and burning several countries' worth of electricity. Not saying I didn't mine a bit back in 2011 or so (and subsequently lost the wallet, doh) or that I'm not interested at all, but calling crypto an "investment" is laughable at best. It's a pure speculative play, only marginally better than a lottery.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]