It's a bet that cannot be settled: intelligence documents are only declassified long after the fact, and even then may be full of misdirections and information

It's a bet that cannot be settled: intelligence documents are only declassified long after the fact, and even then may be full of misdirections and information that requires internal knowledge to interpret. (It's also in the interest of three-letter agencies and external state actors to raise the suspicion that they have the capability to do something even when they don't.)