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> "The headline basically implies "total fossil fuel generation has stopped growing, while renewables have grown substantially," which is both accurate and inte

> "The headline basically implies "total fossil fuel generation has stopped growing, while renewables have grown substantially," which is both accurate and interesting." It's not accurate, it's bullshit. Look at the graph here, which is based on the official US government figures: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31892 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31892 Does it look like fossil fuel usage is slowing down to you?

EngineerBetter 9y ago
You appear to have mistaken generation capacity (discussed in the Electrek article) with usage (cited by you).
- ZenoArrow 9y ago
  How do you think we get additional usage of fuel types? By growing the generation capacity. The point is, there's no sign of the expansion of natural gas usage slowing down. Install base of power plants/generators running off natural gas is growing. I haven't got all the figures to hand, but consider this report, which covers changes in electricity production in the southern states of the US: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33992 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33992 In particular, look at this graph: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.12.05/chart4.png https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.12.05/chart4.p... Can you at least admit that, in 2017, natural gas capacity grew faster than renewable capacity in southern US states?
trophycase 9y ago
Yes, actually. It looks like the increase in petroleum and gas in the last 5 years is more or less nullified by the drop in coal, while renewables is steadily increasing. What do you see?
- ZenoArrow 9y ago
  I see that the drop off in coal is masking the growth in other fossil fuel sources. It should be renewables that take the place of coal, not natural gas and petroleum.
  - trophycase 9y ago
    I don't disagree, but it does mean that the original claim is accurate.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    Natural gas is ~1/2 as carbon intense as coal. It's a good thing when it displaces coal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity#Published_data_on_energy_sources_emission_intensity_per_unit_of_energy_generated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity#Published_d... Of course renewables are much lower, as that table shows. But meeting current demand with new natural gas generation is still a big improvement over old coal generation.
philipkglass 9y ago
According to your own link, "In 2016, fossil fuels accounted for 81% of total U.S. energy consumption, the lowest fossil fuel share in the past century." Of course you'd need additional data to show that the absolute amount of electricity generated from fossils, and not just its share of the pie, had declined. Here is that additional data: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_1 https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... The sums of the fossil fueled columns (1-5), by yearly GWh, are: 2007 2992238 2008 2926731 2009 2726451 2010 2883361 2011 2788867 2012 2775025 2013 2745968 2014 2750572 2015 2727246 2016 2654468 Total fossil fueled generation is well below where it was a decade ago. The rapid rise of natural gas generation has been more than offset by an even faster decline in generation from other fossil fuels, coal in particular.
- ZenoArrow 9y ago
  > "Total fossil fueled generation is well below where it was a decade ago. The rapid rise of natural gas generation has been more than offset by an even faster decline in generation from other fossil fuels, coal in particular." That's the problem I'm trying to highlight. The decline of coal is the ideal opportunity for renewables to rise to become a greater portion of the energy mix. Instead, we see natural gas taking its place. Natural gas is abundant and cheap, and causes less pollution than coal, but is still a polluting source of energy. Renewables now have to fight against a new, stronger incumbent, rather than taking the place of a dying one.
  - philipkglass 9y ago
    You originally said that the claim "total fossil fuel generation has stopped growing" was bullshit. Those numbers show it's not bullshit. Renewables have been rising. See the same table I linked before. Maybe you'd prefer if all that declining coal generation had been replaced by non-combustion sources instead of mostly gas. So would I, but global solar manufacturing capacity in particular has grown so rapidly and recently that it wasn't even theoretically feasible until just a few years ago. Gas plants are cheap to build and currently have low fuel costs too. But even at today's low fuel costs, most of their operating expenses come from fuel. As renewable and storage construction costs continue to decline, their very low marginal costs provide ample opportunity to steal more share from gas, even if gas prices stay low. It's already happening in California. http://beta.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-puente-gas-power-plant-20171024-story.html http://beta.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-puente-gas-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/a-new-era-of-batteries-spells-trouble-for-natural-gas-in-america https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/a-new-era... https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/battery-storage-is-threatening-natural-gas-peaker-plants https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/battery-storage...

EngineerBetter 9y ago

You appear to have mistaken generation capacity (discussed in the Electrek article) with usage (cited by you).

ZenoArrow 9y ago
How do you think we get additional usage of fuel types? By growing the generation capacity. The point is, there's no sign of the expansion of natural gas usage slowing down. Install base of power plants/generators running off natural gas is growing. I haven't got all the figures to hand, but consider this report, which covers changes in electricity production in the southern states of the US: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33992 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33992 In particular, look at this graph: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.12.05/chart4.png https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.12.05/chart4.p... Can you at least admit that, in 2017, natural gas capacity grew faster than renewable capacity in southern US states?

trophycase 9y ago

Yes, actually. It looks like the increase in petroleum and gas in the last 5 years is more or less nullified by the drop in coal, while renewables is steadily increasing. What do you see?

ZenoArrow 9y ago
I see that the drop off in coal is masking the growth in other fossil fuel sources. It should be renewables that take the place of coal, not natural gas and petroleum.
- trophycase 9y ago
  I don't disagree, but it does mean that the original claim is accurate.
- maxerickson 9y ago
  Natural gas is ~1/2 as carbon intense as coal. It's a good thing when it displaces coal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity#Published_data_on_energy_sources_emission_intensity_per_unit_of_energy_generated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity#Published_d... Of course renewables are much lower, as that table shows. But meeting current demand with new natural gas generation is still a big improvement over old coal generation.

philipkglass 9y ago

According to your own link, "In 2016, fossil fuels accounted for 81% of total U.S. energy consumption, the lowest fossil fuel share in the past century." Of course you'd need additional data to show that the absolute amount of electricity generated from fossils, and not just its share of the pie, had declined. Here is that additional data: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_1 https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.ph... The sums of the fossil fueled columns (1-5), by yearly GWh, are: 2007 2992238 2008 2926731 2009 2726451 2010 2883361 2011 2788867 2012 2775025 2013 2745968 2014 2750572 2015 2727246 2016 2654468 Total fossil fueled generation is well below where it was a decade ago. The rapid rise of natural gas generation has been more than offset by an even faster decline in generation from other fossil fuels, coal in particular.

ZenoArrow 9y ago
> "Total fossil fueled generation is well below where it was a decade ago. The rapid rise of natural gas generation has been more than offset by an even faster decline in generation from other fossil fuels, coal in particular." That's the problem I'm trying to highlight. The decline of coal is the ideal opportunity for renewables to rise to become a greater portion of the energy mix. Instead, we see natural gas taking its place. Natural gas is abundant and cheap, and causes less pollution than coal, but is still a polluting source of energy. Renewables now have to fight against a new, stronger incumbent, rather than taking the place of a dying one.
- philipkglass 9y ago
  You originally said that the claim "total fossil fuel generation has stopped growing" was bullshit. Those numbers show it's not bullshit. Renewables have been rising. See the same table I linked before. Maybe you'd prefer if all that declining coal generation had been replaced by non-combustion sources instead of mostly gas. So would I, but global solar manufacturing capacity in particular has grown so rapidly and recently that it wasn't even theoretically feasible until just a few years ago. Gas plants are cheap to build and currently have low fuel costs too. But even at today's low fuel costs, most of their operating expenses come from fuel. As renewable and storage construction costs continue to decline, their very low marginal costs provide ample opportunity to steal more share from gas, even if gas prices stay low. It's already happening in California. http://beta.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-puente-gas-power-plant-20171024-story.html http://beta.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-puente-gas-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/a-new-era-of-batteries-spells-trouble-for-natural-gas-in-america https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/a-new-era... https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/battery-storage-is-threatening-natural-gas-peaker-plants https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/battery-storage...