4 ms·

Buyer beware... "pension system that likely won't be there" is a right wing frame. In reality, social security very likely WILL be there. But fostering cynicis

Buyer beware... "pension system that likely won't be there" is a right wing frame. In reality, social security very likely WILL be there. But fostering cynicism about it is a prerequisite towards imagining it won't be, which makes it (theoretically) easier to dismantle. "Well it's in poor shape anyway, we should just blow it up..." There are good informative comments below that are being downvoted, that are about how social security actually works. You just can't seem to avoid political crap here. There is plenty of good information out there on various easy, non-disturbing ways to tweak social security if necessary. Google some of the ole trustee reports or publications by the late Bob Ball.

Clanan 9y ago
There are already unfunded pension plans and systems waiting to blow up in the next decade. This article [0] details the South Carolina government pension plan, covering 550,000 residents, which is currently $24 billion in the red. Your response is engaging in "political crap" by providing no evidence besides name-calling. For some actual proof of the Social Security situation, here's the SSA report [1] explaining how its Trust Fund will run out in 2035. So yes, Social Security will still exist, but it will rely on short-term funding rather than a big account. That's fine in theory, provided the budget is there. (It likely will be; I imagine the politicians will cut military funding before they hurt SS!) [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/collapsing-pensions-will-fuel-americas-next-financial-crisis-2017-03-14 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/collapsing-pensions-will-f... [1] https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html
- dmm 9y ago
  Once the trust fund is exhausted, unless the law is changed, SS payouts are made equal to SS payroll taxes. This is projected to settle out to payments being ~70% of what has been promised.
  - candiodari 9y ago
    Ok so the next question is whether that should be considered failure or not. Also they'll go below that (because some of their "investments" are government bonds which they won't be allowed to unload, as it would affect the government too much). For current or future recipients of said benefits, the answer is pretty clear : yes. And, frankly, the government has promised these people compensation in terms of years or work, and amounts of income after those years of work. It should be illegal to make these claims. (and for the private sector, it mostly is, so frankly these laws are letting government lie on compensation letter, which is low, dishonest)
    - taylodl 9y ago
      It wasn't just a promise: they took 15% of my salary for it against my will. If I don't get it back, then it's a tax, and not only that, but it makes the tax on the middle class significantly higher than on the uber rich. The Boston Tea Party ain't nothing compared to what's going to happen in this country if they mess with Social Security.
MR4D 9y ago
Normally I don’t unload like this, but framing this as a “right-wing” thing is both stupid and dangerous. Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Just google it. Here’s one for you from the Brits, so no right/left anything: https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a... And here’s another: http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-police-firefighters-withdraw-pension-funds-as-fears-continue/364434372 http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-... And another: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article193991034.html http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert... And another: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth/article194525969.html http://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth... And another: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/decennial-commission-seeks-aid-nh-pension-funding-issues/ https://www.ai-cio.com/news/decennial-commission-seeks-aid-n... Do I need to continue? I will if you continue on your asinine positions that pensions are just fine in this country. So the idea that Social Security has issues is quite well founded. And if social security doesn’t pay out, politicians on both sides will be to blame for kicking the can down the road.
- tasty_freeze 9y ago
  > Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Why are you talking about pensions? The subject was social security.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
- wahern 9y ago
  State government pensions are totally unrelated to Social Security. Under Federal law and under many state constitutions, vested benefits under state and municipal employee pension plans are a property right, and cannot be reduced unilaterally (depending on the theory, either because of the Takings Clause or Contracts Clause of the Federal constitution). And because, unlike private pensions and the USPS, Federal law doesn't require state or municipal governments to fully fund liabilities as they accrue, these particular pensions have turned into a disaster. But Social Security was designed and intended at its very inception to require adjustment to both benefits and retirement age.[1] It's not a form of deferred compensation or other property right. So retirement age and benefits can and has and _will_ be adjusted to keep it solvent. More over, Social Security was never designed to provide continuity of lifestyle, but rather to keep the elderly from starving and living homeless. All it has to do is provide as much as it can, no more or no less. It's a carefully designed social welfare program that is patterned after, but shouldn't be confused with, pensions and annuities. The Social Security department has never made unrealistic assumptions, nor has Congress. The problem with Social Security is that there exists a political party that will cynically bemoan the pending collapse of Social Security while refusing to make the simple and obvious changes that were foreseen and expected of them 80 years ago and ever since. [1] Actuarial tables back then were insanely accurate, and the bureaucrats who designed Social Security understand very well how things would play out. See this 1947 study, which also includes historical actuarial tables from the 1920s and earlier. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life39-41_acturial.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life39-41_acturial.... In particular, note (PDF) pages 14 and 18 where it discusses the trends in longevity. I've seen better historical papers to make my point but don't have the references on hand. But I think that document suffices to show how actuarial science was well developed back then. And it's also worth noting that Social Security came about before the post-WWII baby boom. Populations were understood to be able to grow and shrink. Social Security was never predicated on a steadily growing population.

Clanan 9y ago

There are already unfunded pension plans and systems waiting to blow up in the next decade. This article [0] details the South Carolina government pension plan, covering 550,000 residents, which is currently $24 billion in the red. Your response is engaging in "political crap" by providing no evidence besides name-calling. For some actual proof of the Social Security situation, here's the SSA report [1] explaining how its Trust Fund will run out in 2035. So yes, Social Security will still exist, but it will rely on short-term funding rather than a big account. That's fine in theory, provided the budget is there. (It likely will be; I imagine the politicians will cut military funding before they hurt SS!) [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/collapsing-pensions-will-fuel-americas-next-financial-crisis-2017-03-14 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/collapsing-pensions-will-f... [1] https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html

dmm 9y ago
Once the trust fund is exhausted, unless the law is changed, SS payouts are made equal to SS payroll taxes. This is projected to settle out to payments being ~70% of what has been promised.
- candiodari 9y ago
  Ok so the next question is whether that should be considered failure or not. Also they'll go below that (because some of their "investments" are government bonds which they won't be allowed to unload, as it would affect the government too much). For current or future recipients of said benefits, the answer is pretty clear : yes. And, frankly, the government has promised these people compensation in terms of years or work, and amounts of income after those years of work. It should be illegal to make these claims. (and for the private sector, it mostly is, so frankly these laws are letting government lie on compensation letter, which is low, dishonest)
  - taylodl 9y ago
    It wasn't just a promise: they took 15% of my salary for it against my will. If I don't get it back, then it's a tax, and not only that, but it makes the tax on the middle class significantly higher than on the uber rich. The Boston Tea Party ain't nothing compared to what's going to happen in this country if they mess with Social Security.

MR4D 9y ago

Normally I don’t unload like this, but framing this as a “right-wing” thing is both stupid and dangerous. Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Just google it. Here’s one for you from the Brits, so no right/left anything: https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a28c https://www.ft.com/content/456172b4-6b11-11e6-ae5b-a7cc5dd5a... And here’s another: http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-police-firefighters-withdraw-pension-funds-as-fears-continue/364434372 http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/dallas-county/retired-dallas-... And another: http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article193991034.html http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert... And another: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth/article194525969.html http://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/community/fort-worth... And another: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/decennial-commission-seeks-aid-nh-pension-funding-issues/ https://www.ai-cio.com/news/decennial-commission-seeks-aid-n... Do I need to continue? I will if you continue on your asinine positions that pensions are just fine in this country. So the idea that Social Security has issues is quite well founded. And if social security doesn’t pay out, politicians on both sides will be to blame for kicking the can down the road.

tasty_freeze 9y ago
> Pensions in this country have made unrealistic assumptions for years. Why are you talking about pensions? The subject was social security.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
wahern 9y ago
State government pensions are totally unrelated to Social Security. Under Federal law and under many state constitutions, vested benefits under state and municipal employee pension plans are a property right, and cannot be reduced unilaterally (depending on the theory, either because of the Takings Clause or Contracts Clause of the Federal constitution). And because, unlike private pensions and the USPS, Federal law doesn't require state or municipal governments to fully fund liabilities as they accrue, these particular pensions have turned into a disaster. But Social Security was designed and intended at its very inception to require adjustment to both benefits and retirement age.[1] It's not a form of deferred compensation or other property right. So retirement age and benefits can and has and _will_ be adjusted to keep it solvent. More over, Social Security was never designed to provide continuity of lifestyle, but rather to keep the elderly from starving and living homeless. All it has to do is provide as much as it can, no more or no less. It's a carefully designed social welfare program that is patterned after, but shouldn't be confused with, pensions and annuities. The Social Security department has never made unrealistic assumptions, nor has Congress. The problem with Social Security is that there exists a political party that will cynically bemoan the pending collapse of Social Security while refusing to make the simple and obvious changes that were foreseen and expected of them 80 years ago and ever since. [1] Actuarial tables back then were insanely accurate, and the bureaucrats who designed Social Security understand very well how things would play out. See this 1947 study, which also includes historical actuarial tables from the 1920s and earlier. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life39-41_acturial.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/life39-41_acturial.... In particular, note (PDF) pages 14 and 18 where it discusses the trends in longevity. I've seen better historical papers to make my point but don't have the references on hand. But I think that document suffices to show how actuarial science was well developed back then. And it's also worth noting that Social Security came about before the post-WWII baby boom. Populations were understood to be able to grow and shrink. Social Security was never predicated on a steadily growing population.