Stop estimating, and use previous efforts as evidence of capability to perform future work. The basic idea is to use previous projects as a basis for a distribu

Stop estimating, and use previous efforts as evidence of capability to perform future work. The basic idea is to use previous projects as a basis for a distribution, use Monte Carlo simulation, then use whatever quantile you're comfortable with to "estimate" the new project. You can even use multiple quantiles to provide a range, if you care to. https://www.infoq.com/articles/noestimates-monte-carlo/ https://www.infoq.com/articles/noestimates-monte-carlo/