7 ms·

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-fr

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-fresh-brexit-referendum-to-kill-off-issue https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

mrgordon 9y ago
Cameron lost his snap vote. May lost her snap vote. Sounds like Farage wants to lose a poorly thought out vote now too.
Havoc 9y ago
Ideal. That dodgy first vote is no good basis to make such changes on. Think that's going to bite Nigel in a arse though.
- ben_w 9y ago
  > Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).
  - Havoc 9y ago
    Thing is everyone is starting to recognise the whole brexit story is a rather miserable one that has little shot at a happy end. So I'd imagine that a second vote would end in favour of remain by a more conclusive margin than the first.
    - ben_w 9y ago
      I see little evidence of voters changing their mind, only of non-voters leaning (in recent months) towards Remain. As a Remain voter I am obviously biased to see mainly the flaws in Leavers, so please synthesise opposite equivalents for the following: If Leave voters agregate around the identity that “Brexit is expensive but worth it”, I think this decreases the risk of them starting the sort of riots that would lead to a civil war; if they instead are surprised by massive economic damage (or by 10% of the doctors leaving at once), that increases the risk they will decide to blame Remainers for “talking the country down” or whatever. I have seen comments from YouGov users suggesting that people like me should be executed. I do not yet take such comments as a serious threat (they have also suggested nukes, apparently oblivious to France having any of their own), but such comments are part of why I estimate 10% chance of civil war in this timeframe — the other major component of my belief being an assumption that the basic rate of civil wars is 1/(years since last one) per year.
  - pjc50 9y ago
    > I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10% Hmm. Does that include resumption of armed conflict in NI? That's a possibility but there's no real tradition of this in England. I'm somewhat surprised there haven't been anti-Brexit riots but I can only assume that MI5 is pro-Brexit and actively disrupting their organisation. I can't see how we'd actually get to armed conflict unless the government starts it by mistake.
    - matthewmacleod 9y ago
      I would reckon there have been no anti-Brexit riots primarily because Brexit isn't really the end of the world – it's just a ludicrously stupid, badly-handled, long-term-damaging project. It's hard to get riot-angry that "living conditions will get gradually worse over the next decade"
      - pjc50 9y ago
        A lot depends on what happens to the EU nationals currently resident here. At some point their status will be crystallised. It's unlikely but if the government goes for "everyone now has 6 weeks to leave or you're deported", that's riot material.
        blibble 9y ago
        even a future hypothetical dystopian government would be smarter than that no need to deport anyone when they could slowly withdraw the right to work (say when someone swaps jobs)
        matthewmacleod 9y ago
        You say that, but then we currently have almost limitless incompetence at the highest levels of government. So many aspects of Brexit that have been completely not thought about. The idea of an absolute trade barrier with our largest trading partner being thrown around as a valid idea. I could easily see a malfunctioning government unilaterally deporting EU citizens.
pjc50 9y ago
This reminds me more and more of Greece, with Farage in the Varoufakis role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 The public voted "no", again, but obviously that made no difference to the deals on offer and no deal remained disastrous, so Syriza were ultimately forced to accept a worse deal: "On Monday, 13 July, the Syriza-led government of Greece accepted a bailout package that contains larger pension cuts and tax increases than the one rejected by Greek voters in the referendum"
- iand 9y ago
  Varoufakis resigned the day after the referendum, before the Greek government accepted the bailout.
  - pjc50 9y ago
    Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.
    - timthorn 9y ago
      He's an MEP. You can argue about their powers out his effectiveness, but he's an elected representative which I'd have thought puts him within the UK power structure.
      - crdoconnor 9y ago
        The powers that the Members of the European Parliament have are mostly eclipsed by the European Commission, national parliaments (and for some stuff, the ECB).
      - oliwarner 9y ago
        Exactly. By his own measure, a waste of space.
      - twic 9y ago
        That makes him part of the EU power structure, not the UK power structure.
kypro 9y ago
What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?
- raverbashing 9y ago
  Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countries in the Schengen area Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU single market will increase prices of several goods, both by the reduced value of the Pound and higher import fees. (oh and my favourite) Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU will make it harder to move between countries, including southern European countries (like Spain) and that retirees might need a visa to move or remain there
  - arethuza 9y ago
    The irony is that Brexit will almost certainly mean an increase in immigration from non-EU countries - which is bad economically (EU migrants tend to be contributors to the UK economy and non-EU migrants don't - mainly due to the latter moving later in life with families) and, I suspect, not what a lot of leave voters were actually wanting to happen.
    - kypro 9y ago
      This is an interesting point, which may very well be the end result of Brexit. However, what was the alternative? The UK public have consistently asked their politicians to reduce immigration since the 60s and this has been reflected over and over again in poll data. However, politicians have always ignored this request and while the UK is in the EU politicians have very little control over total number anyway. So basically what you're saying is despite the UK public not agree with the population replacement level of immigration currently occurring in their country, they have no choice because politicians either way are going to continue to replace the population through immigration. The only choice the UK people have to choice between between replaced by EU immigrants or non-EU immigrants... Well how brilliantly immoral. Have we learnt nothing from our past?
craigsmansion 9y ago
It's win-win for him. Leave wins. He's a hero. Leave loses. He gets to keep his "job," and remains a martyr for the cause. The problem here is referenda and "winning" or "losing" them. Any sane system would have interpreted an outcome like 48-52 with a soft approach (exactly what happened in Norway), not a winner-takes-all mentality. Maybe it's an outcome of FPTP and a two party system. As long as referenda are treated as football matches, the outcome doesn't really matter. They will sow discord and divide society. "Discord and division" is exactly the sort of environment the likes of Farage thrive in. It doesn't matter to them what the outcome is as long as it creates strife and hardens opinions.
arethuza 9y ago
Amusingly, before the last referendum Farage said that a 52-48 result would be "unfinished business" and would require another vote... Of course, he meant a 52-48 result the other way.
EliRivers 9y ago
I look forwards to the anti-Brexit bus having "If we abandoned Brexit, we'd have an extra 350 million pounds a week for the NHS" written on the side.

mrgordon 9y ago

Cameron lost his snap vote. May lost her snap vote. Sounds like Farage wants to lose a poorly thought out vote now too.

Havoc 9y ago

Ideal. That dodgy first vote is no good basis to make such changes on. Think that's going to bite Nigel in a arse though.

ben_w 9y ago
> Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).
- Havoc 9y ago
  Thing is everyone is starting to recognise the whole brexit story is a rather miserable one that has little shot at a happy end. So I'd imagine that a second vote would end in favour of remain by a more conclusive margin than the first.
  - ben_w 9y ago
    I see little evidence of voters changing their mind, only of non-voters leaning (in recent months) towards Remain. As a Remain voter I am obviously biased to see mainly the flaws in Leavers, so please synthesise opposite equivalents for the following: If Leave voters agregate around the identity that “Brexit is expensive but worth it”, I think this decreases the risk of them starting the sort of riots that would lead to a civil war; if they instead are surprised by massive economic damage (or by 10% of the doctors leaving at once), that increases the risk they will decide to blame Remainers for “talking the country down” or whatever. I have seen comments from YouGov users suggesting that people like me should be executed. I do not yet take such comments as a serious threat (they have also suggested nukes, apparently oblivious to France having any of their own), but such comments are part of why I estimate 10% chance of civil war in this timeframe — the other major component of my belief being an assumption that the basic rate of civil wars is 1/(years since last one) per year.
- pjc50 9y ago
  > I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10% Hmm. Does that include resumption of armed conflict in NI? That's a possibility but there's no real tradition of this in England. I'm somewhat surprised there haven't been anti-Brexit riots but I can only assume that MI5 is pro-Brexit and actively disrupting their organisation. I can't see how we'd actually get to armed conflict unless the government starts it by mistake.
  - matthewmacleod 9y ago
    I would reckon there have been no anti-Brexit riots primarily because Brexit isn't really the end of the world – it's just a ludicrously stupid, badly-handled, long-term-damaging project. It's hard to get riot-angry that "living conditions will get gradually worse over the next decade"
    - pjc50 9y ago
      A lot depends on what happens to the EU nationals currently resident here. At some point their status will be crystallised. It's unlikely but if the government goes for "everyone now has 6 weeks to leave or you're deported", that's riot material.
      - blibble 9y ago
        even a future hypothetical dystopian government would be smarter than that no need to deport anyone when they could slowly withdraw the right to work (say when someone swaps jobs)
        matthewmacleod 9y ago
        You say that, but then we currently have almost limitless incompetence at the highest levels of government. So many aspects of Brexit that have been completely not thought about. The idea of an absolute trade barrier with our largest trading partner being thrown around as a valid idea. I could easily see a malfunctioning government unilaterally deporting EU citizens.

pjc50 9y ago

This reminds me more and more of Greece, with Farage in the Varoufakis role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 The public voted "no", again, but obviously that made no difference to the deals on offer and no deal remained disastrous, so Syriza were ultimately forced to accept a worse deal: "On Monday, 13 July, the Syriza-led government of Greece accepted a bailout package that contains larger pension cuts and tax increases than the one rejected by Greek voters in the referendum"

iand 9y ago
Varoufakis resigned the day after the referendum, before the Greek government accepted the bailout.
- pjc50 9y ago
  Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.
  - timthorn 9y ago
    He's an MEP. You can argue about their powers out his effectiveness, but he's an elected representative which I'd have thought puts him within the UK power structure.
    - crdoconnor 9y ago
      The powers that the Members of the European Parliament have are mostly eclipsed by the European Commission, national parliaments (and for some stuff, the ECB).
    - oliwarner 9y ago
      Exactly. By his own measure, a waste of space.
    - twic 9y ago
      That makes him part of the EU power structure, not the UK power structure.

kypro 9y ago

What's your point? Or are you just reading the headline? He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What point are you trying to make?

raverbashing 9y ago
Then have a vote with multiple alternatives Also I would favour a disclaimer on the bottom Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU (hard Brexit) will result in longer times and possible caveats when entering other countries in the Schengen area Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU single market will increase prices of several goods, both by the reduced value of the Pound and higher import fees. (oh and my favourite) Tick here if you're aware leaving the EU will make it harder to move between countries, including southern European countries (like Spain) and that retirees might need a visa to move or remain there
- arethuza 9y ago
  The irony is that Brexit will almost certainly mean an increase in immigration from non-EU countries - which is bad economically (EU migrants tend to be contributors to the UK economy and non-EU migrants don't - mainly due to the latter moving later in life with families) and, I suspect, not what a lot of leave voters were actually wanting to happen.
  - kypro 9y ago
    This is an interesting point, which may very well be the end result of Brexit. However, what was the alternative? The UK public have consistently asked their politicians to reduce immigration since the 60s and this has been reflected over and over again in poll data. However, politicians have always ignored this request and while the UK is in the EU politicians have very little control over total number anyway. So basically what you're saying is despite the UK public not agree with the population replacement level of immigration currently occurring in their country, they have no choice because politicians either way are going to continue to replace the population through immigration. The only choice the UK people have to choice between between replaced by EU immigrants or non-EU immigrants... Well how brilliantly immoral. Have we learnt nothing from our past?

craigsmansion 9y ago

It's win-win for him. Leave wins. He's a hero. Leave loses. He gets to keep his "job," and remains a martyr for the cause. The problem here is referenda and "winning" or "losing" them. Any sane system would have interpreted an outcome like 48-52 with a soft approach (exactly what happened in Norway), not a winner-takes-all mentality. Maybe it's an outcome of FPTP and a two party system. As long as referenda are treated as football matches, the outcome doesn't really matter. They will sow discord and divide society. "Discord and division" is exactly the sort of environment the likes of Farage thrive in. It doesn't matter to them what the outcome is as long as it creates strife and hardens opinions.

arethuza 9y ago

Amusingly, before the last referendum Farage said that a 52-48 result would be "unfinished business" and would require another vote... Of course, he meant a 52-48 result the other way.

EliRivers 9y ago

I look forwards to the anti-Brexit bus having "If we abandoned Brexit, we'd have an extra 350 million pounds a week for the NHS" written on the side.