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Savings accounts used to pay 10% interest. Now all investments that beat inflation are "risky" including s&p indexes, simply because they are at their all time

Savings accounts used to pay 10% interest. Now all investments that beat inflation are "risky" including s&p indexes, simply because they are at their all time high and there is so much uncertainty in the world. So by that calculus the risky investment that's been showing 5000% annual return is more attractive than the risky investment that's showing 15% return.

bluedevil2k 9y ago
Nope. Wrong. Just because they're at their all-time high doesn't mean they won't continue to go up. Doesn't mean they won't tank tomorrow. And it's naive to think there's more uncertainty in the world today than there was 20, 30, 50 years ago. Your "more attractive" investment has shown 5000% annual return for 1 year...the "risky" investment has shown 8-10% return ON AVERAGE for over 100 years.
- jerkstate 9y ago
  The S&P saw extended significant bear markets in 2007, 2000, 1987, 1980, 1973, 1968. It's naive to think that it won't happen again. What you are saying is that if I put my money into S&P 500 10 years before I was born, it would match the gains on the same investment in cryptocurrency from 1 year ago. Salty nocoiners.
  - bluedevil2k 9y ago
    Nocoiners? If you’re that confident in the future of BTC, please take me up on my offer to sell me some puts (see my other comment)
    - jerkstate 9y ago
      I'm not interested in your put options on BTC (nobody in their right mind would sell you that), but I would make a wager that the percent increase of total "market cap" of all "cryptocurrencies" (loosely defined as cryptographically secured tokens redeemable for fiat currency, e.g. coins listed on CoinMarketCap) at least 2 out of 3 of 5, 10, and 15 years from now exceeds the total "market cap" increase of the S&P 500 in the same period. I believe my bet more closely models the prediction I am making - that cryptocurrency gains will continue to outstrip S&P 500 gains.
      - bluedevil2k 9y ago
        I would take that bet, since I think 98% of the crypto's on this CoinMarketCap will be non-existent in 5 years.
        jerkstate 9y ago
        I think you misunderstood me - I don't think that buying and holding any of the current tokens on CMC is a particularly good idea. You have a very very low chance of picking the ones that will be around in a few years. However, staying aware of what new development are coming around and trading into the new promising ones as they become successful may be a good growth strategy. I agree with you that 98%+ of the current coins will be dead in less than 5 years - but there will absolutely be new ones with an increasing amount of value. There may well be a point in the coming months or years that the market cap of current crypto deflates - maybe by 90% or more - but new cryptocurrency applications and tokens will certainly exist in 5, 10, 15, and 100 years.
- AnimalMuppet 9y ago
  > And it's naive to think there's more uncertainty in the world today than there was 20, 30, 50 years ago. There's more uncertainty in bitcoin today than there was in almost all available investments 20, 30, or 50 years ago.
AnimalMuppet 9y ago
> Savings accounts used to pay 10% interest. Now all investments that beat inflation are "risky"... Note that when savings accounts paid 10% interest, inflation was (I think) at 14%.

bluedevil2k 9y ago

Nope. Wrong. Just because they're at their all-time high doesn't mean they won't continue to go up. Doesn't mean they won't tank tomorrow. And it's naive to think there's more uncertainty in the world today than there was 20, 30, 50 years ago. Your "more attractive" investment has shown 5000% annual return for 1 year...the "risky" investment has shown 8-10% return ON AVERAGE for over 100 years.

jerkstate 9y ago
The S&P saw extended significant bear markets in 2007, 2000, 1987, 1980, 1973, 1968. It's naive to think that it won't happen again. What you are saying is that if I put my money into S&P 500 10 years before I was born, it would match the gains on the same investment in cryptocurrency from 1 year ago. Salty nocoiners.
- bluedevil2k 9y ago
  Nocoiners? If you’re that confident in the future of BTC, please take me up on my offer to sell me some puts (see my other comment)
  - jerkstate 9y ago
    I'm not interested in your put options on BTC (nobody in their right mind would sell you that), but I would make a wager that the percent increase of total "market cap" of all "cryptocurrencies" (loosely defined as cryptographically secured tokens redeemable for fiat currency, e.g. coins listed on CoinMarketCap) at least 2 out of 3 of 5, 10, and 15 years from now exceeds the total "market cap" increase of the S&P 500 in the same period. I believe my bet more closely models the prediction I am making - that cryptocurrency gains will continue to outstrip S&P 500 gains.
    - bluedevil2k 9y ago
      I would take that bet, since I think 98% of the crypto's on this CoinMarketCap will be non-existent in 5 years.
      - jerkstate 9y ago
        I think you misunderstood me - I don't think that buying and holding any of the current tokens on CMC is a particularly good idea. You have a very very low chance of picking the ones that will be around in a few years. However, staying aware of what new development are coming around and trading into the new promising ones as they become successful may be a good growth strategy. I agree with you that 98%+ of the current coins will be dead in less than 5 years - but there will absolutely be new ones with an increasing amount of value. There may well be a point in the coming months or years that the market cap of current crypto deflates - maybe by 90% or more - but new cryptocurrency applications and tokens will certainly exist in 5, 10, 15, and 100 years.
AnimalMuppet 9y ago
> And it's naive to think there's more uncertainty in the world today than there was 20, 30, 50 years ago. There's more uncertainty in bitcoin today than there was in almost all available investments 20, 30, or 50 years ago.

AnimalMuppet 9y ago

> Savings accounts used to pay 10% interest. Now all investments that beat inflation are "risky"... Note that when savings accounts paid 10% interest, inflation was (I think) at 14%.