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You can say that it can change to be something other than a currency, but unless you actually have something interesting to say about how it actually will becom

by slivym 9y ago

You can say that it can change to be something other than a currency, but unless you actually have something interesting to say about how it actually will become something else then you're really not saying much. It could become a hedge against inflation. Do you have any evidence that it acts as a hedge against inflation at all? Do you have any logic why it could? You may as well say that stones act as a good hedge against inflation. You need reasons to actually argue it.

sodafountan 9y ago
The evidence is in the market, I don't see many people buying and selling rocks. What I do see is people buying and holding an asset that has gained hundreds of thousands of percentage points since its inception and could very well continue that trend. The real revelation came when someone decided to purchase bitcoin from someone else, from that point on bitcoin had value and it always will. But you go ahead and try to sell some rocks you picked up off of the ground to someone and then report back here and let me know you did.
- PeterisP 9y ago
  "people buying and holding an asset that has gained hundreds of thousands of percentage points since its inception and could very well continue that trend" applied to all kinds of stuff like the beanie baby craze as well. Seeing this behavior is not an evidence of something being long term value store. If the bitcoin doesn't gain a widespread practical use, it may well be that the long term value it has is, say, $100 / BTC, wiping out 99% of the value, and failing in any purpose as an inflation hedge or censorship-resistant store of value. Saying that it has value because it's being bought for ever increasing price is the "greater fool" value foundation, i.e. saying that it has value because someone else will value it even more later, which actually works really well (and can earn you a lot of money) until suddenly it doesn't. Other than that, any long-term valuation will have to be based on actual, practical, specific uses of Bitcoin (for example, but not limited to, as a transactional currency). It's easy to imagine realistic uses of Bitcoin that will justify some value, e.g. $10 or maybe $100 per BTC. However, the scenarios where the use is so massively valuable to justify a long-term market cap that matches a price of $10k or $100k per BTC require BTC to have a massive, very very widespread use - so either it will gain this massive use as a transactional currency (or something else), or the price won't be sustained nearly as high.

by slivym 9y ago

sodafountan 9y ago

The evidence is in the market, I don't see many people buying and selling rocks. What I do see is people buying and holding an asset that has gained hundreds of thousands of percentage points since its inception and could very well continue that trend. The real revelation came when someone decided to purchase bitcoin from someone else, from that point on bitcoin had value and it always will. But you go ahead and try to sell some rocks you picked up off of the ground to someone and then report back here and let me know you did.

PeterisP 9y ago
"people buying and holding an asset that has gained hundreds of thousands of percentage points since its inception and could very well continue that trend" applied to all kinds of stuff like the beanie baby craze as well. Seeing this behavior is not an evidence of something being long term value store. If the bitcoin doesn't gain a widespread practical use, it may well be that the long term value it has is, say, $100 / BTC, wiping out 99% of the value, and failing in any purpose as an inflation hedge or censorship-resistant store of value. Saying that it has value because it's being bought for ever increasing price is the "greater fool" value foundation, i.e. saying that it has value because someone else will value it even more later, which actually works really well (and can earn you a lot of money) until suddenly it doesn't. Other than that, any long-term valuation will have to be based on actual, practical, specific uses of Bitcoin (for example, but not limited to, as a transactional currency). It's easy to imagine realistic uses of Bitcoin that will justify some value, e.g. $10 or maybe $100 per BTC. However, the scenarios where the use is so massively valuable to justify a long-term market cap that matches a price of $10k or $100k per BTC require BTC to have a massive, very very widespread use - so either it will gain this massive use as a transactional currency (or something else), or the price won't be sustained nearly as high.