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Well, it's real like getting struck by lightning is real. The odds are extremely low. Everyone could let their kids walk to school and chances are nothing bad

by Reedx 9y ago

Well, it's real like getting struck by lightning is real. The odds are extremely low. Everyone could let their kids walk to school and chances are nothing bad will happen. Though it may lead to those kids being a bit healthier, more independent and more confident. And less likely to die in a car crash - which is far, far more probable than kidnapping.

christophilus 9y ago
I agree with your sentiment. It's more common than lightning strikes, though still super remote. But I'm not planning on sending my kids out to play in thunderstorms, and I'm not planning on leaving them unattended in public places until they're of a certain age. Walking to school is an interesting scenario. I hate the car, so I'd probably walk with them or ride bikes together. Side story: My dad had a friend who was almost kidnapped while on the way to school. The only reason it didn't succeed is that my dad and another friend grabbed their friend by the ankles while the guy in the car was tugging on their friend's arms. The kids all screamed bloody murder, and the men in the car gave up and drove off. In most areas of life I like to think that I let statistics drive my thinking (e.g. I don't try to beat the stock market no matter how bad things look, unless I'm gambling for the fun of it). But in the case of kids, man... it's just much harder to overcome emotional biases.
- opo 9y ago
  >...It's more common than lightning strikes, though still super remote. It doesn't look that way: >...During the study year, there were an estimated 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions perpetrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed. http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/MC19.pdf http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/MC19.pdf So, 115 children were abducted by strangers that year. The national weather service estimates that 300 people are hit by lightning a year. http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml Like you said, it's hard for people to overcome emotional biases. As a comparison, sharing a bed with a baby (which many people think is safe) is implicated in thousands of deaths a year: >...After analyzing data on 8,207 infant deaths from 24 states that occurred between 2004 and 2012, researchers determined that nearly 74 percent of deaths in babies younger than 4 months occurred in a bed-sharing situation, according to the study published Monday in Pediatrics. >Among older infants – those aged 4 months to 364 days – the rate was slightly lower at nearly 59 percent. https://www.today.com/health/co-sleeping-linked-infant-deaths-bed-sharing-remains-popular-1D79912957 https://www.today.com/health/co-sleeping-linked-infant-death... As another comparison, over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year in car accidents. http://asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics http://asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safet...
  - christophilus 9y ago
    Right. My back of the envelope math shows about 100 children abducted by strangers per year in the US and about 60 children are struck by lightning per year (hard to tell, but based on % of lightning related deaths that are under 19)-- most of which are probably well over 4 years of age[0]. I mean, either way, it's exceedingly rare, but the odds of a young child being abducted is a good bit higher than the odds that they are struck by lightning. Both odds are really rare. But my point is that it's just logical to take precautions. Not leaving your kids unattended in public places and not leaving them out in thunderstorms... both strike me as reasonable advice. :) Edit: throwing in the link that shows ~20% of lightning fatalities are for people between 0-19 years old. [0] https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/jeh5_05_45-50.pdf https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/jeh5_05_45-50.pdf
    - opo 9y ago
      >...I mean, either way, it's exceedingly rare, but the odds of a young child being abducted is a good bit higher than the odds that they are struck by lightning. Your link is talking about fatalities. Just as the number of fatalities from lightning is much less than occurrences, the same applies to kidnappings. The probabilities for the two things aren't that different. >...But my point is that it's just logical to take precautions. Not leaving your kids unattended in public places and not leaving them out in thunderstorms... both strike me as reasonable advice. :) Yea, the low number for lightning strikes is likely due to the fact that people do avoid going out in lightning. Also while it is reasonable to not leave kids unattended in public places, kidnappings of children have always been very rare and the extra paranoia people have about it today isn't helpful and as posters have pointed out, actually makes the world a more dangerous place.

by Reedx 9y ago

christophilus 9y ago

I agree with your sentiment. It's more common than lightning strikes, though still super remote. But I'm not planning on sending my kids out to play in thunderstorms, and I'm not planning on leaving them unattended in public places until they're of a certain age. Walking to school is an interesting scenario. I hate the car, so I'd probably walk with them or ride bikes together. Side story: My dad had a friend who was almost kidnapped while on the way to school. The only reason it didn't succeed is that my dad and another friend grabbed their friend by the ankles while the guy in the car was tugging on their friend's arms. The kids all screamed bloody murder, and the men in the car gave up and drove off. In most areas of life I like to think that I let statistics drive my thinking (e.g. I don't try to beat the stock market no matter how bad things look, unless I'm gambling for the fun of it). But in the case of kids, man... it's just much harder to overcome emotional biases.

opo 9y ago
>...It's more common than lightning strikes, though still super remote. It doesn't look that way: >...During the study year, there were an estimated 115 stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions perpetrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed. http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/MC19.pdf http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/MC19.pdf So, 115 children were abducted by strangers that year. The national weather service estimates that 300 people are hit by lightning a year. http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml Like you said, it's hard for people to overcome emotional biases. As a comparison, sharing a bed with a baby (which many people think is safe) is implicated in thousands of deaths a year: >...After analyzing data on 8,207 infant deaths from 24 states that occurred between 2004 and 2012, researchers determined that nearly 74 percent of deaths in babies younger than 4 months occurred in a bed-sharing situation, according to the study published Monday in Pediatrics. >Among older infants – those aged 4 months to 364 days – the rate was slightly lower at nearly 59 percent. https://www.today.com/health/co-sleeping-linked-infant-deaths-bed-sharing-remains-popular-1D79912957 https://www.today.com/health/co-sleeping-linked-infant-death... As another comparison, over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year in car accidents. http://asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics http://asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safet...
- christophilus 9y ago
  Right. My back of the envelope math shows about 100 children abducted by strangers per year in the US and about 60 children are struck by lightning per year (hard to tell, but based on % of lightning related deaths that are under 19)-- most of which are probably well over 4 years of age[0]. I mean, either way, it's exceedingly rare, but the odds of a young child being abducted is a good bit higher than the odds that they are struck by lightning. Both odds are really rare. But my point is that it's just logical to take precautions. Not leaving your kids unattended in public places and not leaving them out in thunderstorms... both strike me as reasonable advice. :) Edit: throwing in the link that shows ~20% of lightning fatalities are for people between 0-19 years old. [0] https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/jeh5_05_45-50.pdf https://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/jeh5_05_45-50.pdf
  - opo 9y ago
    >...I mean, either way, it's exceedingly rare, but the odds of a young child being abducted is a good bit higher than the odds that they are struck by lightning. Your link is talking about fatalities. Just as the number of fatalities from lightning is much less than occurrences, the same applies to kidnappings. The probabilities for the two things aren't that different. >...But my point is that it's just logical to take precautions. Not leaving your kids unattended in public places and not leaving them out in thunderstorms... both strike me as reasonable advice. :) Yea, the low number for lightning strikes is likely due to the fact that people do avoid going out in lightning. Also while it is reasonable to not leave kids unattended in public places, kidnappings of children have always been very rare and the extra paranoia people have about it today isn't helpful and as posters have pointed out, actually makes the world a more dangerous place.