5 ms·

I don't remember mentioning that prominently before the survey. Can you link me to the relevant quote?

by Yvain 9y ago

searealist 9y ago
https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/12/25/preregistration-of-hypotheses-for-the-ssc-survey/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/12/25/preregistration-of-hyp... 7. I plan to confirm or disprove, once and for all, whether our community has more older siblings. For lack of a fancier way to do this, I’ll take the set of all people who have exactly one sibling, and see what percent of them are older vs. younger. If it’s significantly above 50% older, I’m going to interpret this as a birth order effect. I’ll do the same with the set of people who have two siblings, three siblings, etc, and combine them all for a final determination. Half-siblings will be ignored. If you have any problems with this methodology, tell me now.
- Yvain 9y ago
  That post starts with "Please don’t read on until you’ve taken it, since this could bias your results." But I checked the data I received before and after I posted that, and the birth order effects are about equally strong throughout.
  - searealist 9y ago
    And what % was before and what % after ?
    - Yvain 9y ago
      5,523 before December 25, when I posted the pre-registrations. 2,254 after. Of the before-posting people, 2199 had exactly one sibling, and 71.1% of those were the older. Of the after-posting people, 776 had exactly one sibling, and 72.3% of those were older. A t-test revealed no difference between the two groups, p = 0.527.
  - darepublic 9y ago
    The prevalence of older siblings could be because of other reasons perhaps? Only people born with a certain period of time are likely to be interested in transhumanism and of those more are older siblings than otherwise.
    - AstralStorm 9y ago
      The drawback of any survey driven study, right?
    - losvedir 9y ago
      He explained that, too. The average age of all the older siblings that responded and the the average age of all the younger siblings that responded were within 1 year.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - itronitron 9y ago
    it may also reflect that firstborns just have more of an interest in birth order effects so were more likely to respond
  - theptip 9y ago
    I'd have preferred if Scott posted an encrypted timestamped message on Pastebin before the survey (to register his intended experiments), and released the keys after the survey; "this could skew your results please don't read" is not particularly well controlled.
    - wging 9y ago
      You don't really need to encrypt - just one-way hash. (Though if you count that as 'encryption' for this purpose, okay.)

I don't remember mentioning that prominently before the survey. Can you link me to the relevant quote?

by Yvain 9y ago

I don't remember mentioning that prominently before the survey. Can you link me to the relevant quote?

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/12/25/preregistration-of-hypotheses-for-the-ssc-survey/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/12/25/preregistration-of-hyp... 7. I plan to confirm or disprove, once and for all, whether our community has more older siblings. For lack of a fancier way to do this, I’ll take the set of all people who have exactly one sibling, and see what percent of them are older vs. younger. If it’s significantly above 50% older, I’m going to interpret this as a birth order effect. I’ll do the same with the set of people who have two siblings, three siblings, etc, and combine them all for a final determination. Half-siblings will be ignored. If you have any problems with this methodology, tell me now.

Yvain 9y ago
That post starts with "Please don’t read on until you’ve taken it, since this could bias your results." But I checked the data I received before and after I posted that, and the birth order effects are about equally strong throughout.
- searealist 9y ago
  And what % was before and what % after ?
  - Yvain 9y ago
    5,523 before December 25, when I posted the pre-registrations. 2,254 after. Of the before-posting people, 2199 had exactly one sibling, and 71.1% of those were the older. Of the after-posting people, 776 had exactly one sibling, and 72.3% of those were older. A t-test revealed no difference between the two groups, p = 0.527.
- darepublic 9y ago
  The prevalence of older siblings could be because of other reasons perhaps? Only people born with a certain period of time are likely to be interested in transhumanism and of those more are older siblings than otherwise.
  - AstralStorm 9y ago
    The drawback of any survey driven study, right?
  - losvedir 9y ago
    He explained that, too. The average age of all the older siblings that responded and the the average age of all the younger siblings that responded were within 1 year.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- itronitron 9y ago
  it may also reflect that firstborns just have more of an interest in birth order effects so were more likely to respond
- theptip 9y ago
  I'd have preferred if Scott posted an encrypted timestamped message on Pastebin before the survey (to register his intended experiments), and released the keys after the survey; "this could skew your results please don't read" is not particularly well controlled.
  - wging 9y ago
    You don't really need to encrypt - just one-way hash. (Though if you count that as 'encryption' for this purpose, okay.)